Frances Tiafoe and Lorenzo Sonego will face off in the 3rd round of the Miami Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 4:00 pm on STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Frances Tiafoe who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Frances Tiafoe is the pick to win this match.
Frances Tiafoe -> 1.44
Lorenzo Sonego -> 2.79
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Prediction and head to head Frances Tiafoe vs. Lorenzo Sonego
This will be the 3rd time that Frances Tiafoe and Lorenzo Sonego square off. The head to head is 1-1 for Tiafoe and Sonego (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Sonego won 6-3 7-6(7) in the Rubber 1 in 1 back in 2022.
Frances Tiafoe
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-12 | 5-5 | 9-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-27 | 21-13 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-21 | 21-10 | 8-4 | 4-5 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-25 | 19-11 | 8-6 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 42-27 | 19-13 | 4-7 | 10-4 | 9-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14 (career-high), Francis got to the 3rd round after beating Yosuke Watanuki 6-75 7-63 6-4.
In the 2nd round against Watanuki, Francis recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 7-63 6-4). During the match, Tiafoe scored 118 points vs Watanuki’s 116. Francis was pretty aggressive to blast 51 winners.
Talking about the service games, Tiafoe fired 12 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults. Frances Tiafoe lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Tiafoe put 62% of his first serves in, winning 72% (51/71) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (20/43) on the 2nd serve. Tiafoe broke Watanuki 4 times after converting 29% of his break points (4/14).
Tiafoe has positive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (316-216). 14-3 on hard in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Tiafoe has a composed 151-102 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Australia where he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the final 6-2 0-0 ret..
Tiafoe has an aggregate 15-4 win-loss record in 2023, 14-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Lorenzo Sonego
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9-13 | 7-6 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 27-33 | 10-14 | 10-11 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-31 | 10-12 | 9-7 | 9-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-29 | 7-9 | 8-11 | 10-5 | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-24 | 9-11 | 9-4 | 6-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 59, the Italian got to the 3rd round after defeating Dominic Thiem 7-67 6-2 and Daniel Evans 4-6 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Evans, The Italian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-2). During the match Sonego and Evans scored the same amount of points (88). However, the world no. 14 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Lorenzo was pretty aggressive to blast 51 winners.
Talking about serving, Sonego made 6 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Lorenzo Sonego lost the serve once and he saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Sonego put 65% of his first serves in, winning 73% (51/70) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (16/38) on the 2nd serve. Sonego broke Evans 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sonego has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
The Italian has a compiled 7-8 win-loss record in 2023, 5-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 36 | 48 |
| Pts | 118-116 | 163-149 |
| Total Points | 234 | 312 |
| Winners | 51 | 83 |
| %Winners | 43% | 51% |
Tiafoe played 1 match while Sonego competed in 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Frances Tiafoe surrendered 1 set, while Lorenzo Sonego conceded 1 set. Tiafoe has played 2 set(s) less than Sonego (3 vs 5). Therefore, Tiafoe played 12 games less than Sonego. The American scored 51 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Sonego bagged 83 winners (51%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 12 | 6 |
| 1st in | 71/114 | 108/173 |
| %1st in | 62% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 51/71 | 83/108 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 20/43 | 32/65 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 49% |
Tiafoe managed to score 12 aces . Sonego made 12 aces (6 per match). Tiafoe won 72% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Sonego won 77% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 6 |
| Converted | 4/14 | 6/13 |
| % Converted | 29% | 46% |
| Conceded | 6 | 15 |
| Saved | 3 | 13 |
| % Saved | 50% | 87% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 |
Tiafoe broke his opponent 4 times with a 29% conversion rate. Francis lost his serve 3 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Sonego broke his opponents 6 times with a 46% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve twice and he saved 87% of the break points that he conceded.
| Tiafoe | |||
| R2 Watanuki |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-75 7-63 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 36 | 36 | |
| pts | 118-116 | 118-116 | |
| Total points | 234 | 234 | |
| Winners | 51 | 51 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 12 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 71/114 | 71/114 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 51/71 | 51/71 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/43 | 20/43 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/14 | 4/14 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 29% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
| Sonego | ||||
| R1 Thiem |
R2 Evans |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-67 6-2 | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 27 | 48 | |
| pts | 75-61 | 88-88 | 163-149 | |
| Total points | 136 | 176 | 312 | |
| Winners | 32 | 51 | 83 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 58% | 51% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 7 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 38/65 | 70/108 | 108/173 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 65% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 32/38 | 51/70 | 83/108 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 73% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/27 | 16/38 | 32/65 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 42% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 3/6 | 6/13 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 50% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 13 | 15 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 12/13 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 92% | 142% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWLLWWLL
LLLWLLLWLL Tennis Scores in Miami
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- Taylor FritzFritz – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori – Taro DanielDaniel (6-3 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Dusan LajovicLajovic (6-0 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alex MolcanMolcan (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Holger RuneRune – Diego SchwartzmanSchwartzman (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Andrey RublevRublev – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Christian GarinGarin – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Quentin HalysHalys – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Christopher EubanksEubanks – Gregoire BarrereBarrere (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Andrey RublevRublev (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Tommy PaulPaul (0-1) – H2H and prediction
