Elena Rybakina and Elise Mertens will face off in the 4th round of the Miami Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 3:30 pm on STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.285
Elise Mertens -> 3.64
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Prediction and head to head Elena Rybakina vs. Elise Mertens
This will be the 4th time that Elena Rybakina and Elise Mertens play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Rybakina (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Rybakina won 6-3 6-2 in the 2nd round in Cincinnati back in 2021.
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26-4 | 22-4 | 4-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7 (career-high), Rybakina reached the 4th round after beating Anna Kalinskaya 7-5 4-6 6-3 and Paula Badosa Gibert 3-6 7-5 6-3.
In the 3rd round against Badosa, Elena recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-5 6-3). During the match, Rybakina scored 114 points vs Badosa’s 108. Rybakina was quite aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Talking about the service games, Rybakina fired 12 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Elena Rybakina lost the serve 5 times and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 66% of her first serves in, winning 66% (46/70) of the points behind her 1st serve and 44% (16/36) on the 2nd serve. Elena broke Badosa 6 times after converting 40% of her break points (6/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elena has dropped 2 set in this competition to conquer 53% of the points she played.
Rybakina has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (260-121). 18-4 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Rybakina has an overall114-59 record in the last 9 years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Indian Wells where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 7-6(11) 6-4.
Rybakina has an aggregate 18-4 win-loss record in 2023, 18-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Elise Mertens
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13-10 | 9-7 | 3-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-22 | 24-16 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-23 | 19-14 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-20 | 20-10 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 34-13 | 17-7 | 9-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 39, the Belgian reached the 4th round after defeating Alycia Parks 6-1 6-4, Daria Kasatkina 4-6 6-2 6-2 and Petra Martic 6-4 6-3.
In the 3rd round, The Belgian had a good straight sets win against Martic (6-4 6-3). During the match Mertens scored 73 points vs Martic’s 62. Mertens was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Mertens managed to score 9 aces and she was not very solid on her 2nd serve to score 13 double faults. Elise Mertens lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 55% of her first serves in, winning 76% (34/45) of the points behind her 1st serve and 32% (12/37) on the 2nd serve. Mertens broke Martic 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elise has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Elise’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Monterrey.
Elise has an overall 13-7 win-loss record in 2023, 13-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rybakina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 61 | 62 |
| Pts | 218-197 | 226-178 |
| Total Points | 415 | 404 |
| Winners | 88 | 88 |
| %Winners | 40% | 39% |
Rybakina played 2 matches while Mertens competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Elena Rybakina dropped 2 sets, while Elise Mertens surrendered 1 set. Rybakina has played 1 set(s) less than Mertens (6 vs 7). Therefore, Rybakina played 1 game less than Mertens. The Kazakhstani scored 88 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Mertens struck 88 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rybakina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 26 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 13 | 5 |
| 1st in | 125/207 | 118/212 |
| %1st in | 60% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 88/125 | 88/118 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 37/82 | 44/94 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 47% |
Rybakina fired 26 aces (13 per match). Mertens recorded 15 aces (5 per match). Rybakina won 70% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 75% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rybakina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 15 |
| Converted | 11/28 | 15/25 |
| % Converted | 39% | 60% |
| Conceded | 21 | 17 |
| Saved | 12 | 12 |
| % Saved | 57% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 5 |
Elena broke her opponents 11 times with a 39% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani dropped her serve 9 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Mertens broke her opponents 15 times with a 60% conversion rate. Elise conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 71% of the break points that she conceded.
| Rybakina | ||||
| R2 Kalinskaya |
R3 Badosa |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 4-6 6-3 | 3-6 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 30 | 61 | |
| pts | 104-89 | 114-108 | 218-197 | |
| Total points | 193 | 222 | 415 | |
| Winners | 42 | 46 | 88 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 14 | 12 | 26 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 55/101 | 70/106 | 125/207 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 66% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 42/55 | 46/70 | 88/125 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 66% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/46 | 16/36 | 37/82 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 44% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 6/15 | 11/28 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 40% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 15 | 21 | |
| Saved | 2/6 | 10/15 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 67% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Mertens | |||||
| R1 Parks |
R2 Kasatkina |
R3 Martic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 4-6 6-2 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 26 | 19 | 62 | |
| pts | 67-46 | 86-70 | 73-62 | 226-178 | |
| Total points | 113 | 156 | 135 | 404 | |
| Winners | 21 | 33 | 34 | 88 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 38% | 47% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | 13 | 21 | |
| 1st in | 28/53 | 45/77 | 45/82 | 118/212 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 58% | 55% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 21/28 | 33/45 | 34/45 | 88/118 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 73% | 76% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/25 | 16/32 | 12/37 | 44/94 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 50% | 32% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 15/25 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 75% | 63% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 4/7 | 5/7 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 57% | 71% | 114% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWLWWWWW
LWLWWLLWWL Tennis Scores in Miami
- Varvara GrachevaGracheva – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-2 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Martina TrevisanTrevisan – Claire LiuLiu (4-6 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (5-7 7-65 6-3) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Petra MarticMartic (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Anastasia PotapovaPotapova – Cori GauffGauff (6-78 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (6-1 7-60) – See score progression
- Magda LinetteLinette – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (7-63 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (3-6 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu – Sofia KeninKenin (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Varvara GrachevaGracheva – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Belinda BencicBencic (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Petra KvitovaKvitova – Donna VekicVekic (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Madison KeysKeys (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Martina TrevisanTrevisan – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Elise MertensMertens (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Magda LinetteLinette (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (2-0) – H2H and prediction
