Mathias Bourgue and Luca Castelnuovo will play each other in the qualifications of the St. Brieuc Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 4:00 pm on COURT STEREDENN. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Mathias Bourgue who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Mathias Bourgue is the pick to win this match.
Mathias Bourgue -> 1.071
Luca Castelnuovo -> 7.2
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Prediction and head to head Mathias Bourgue vs. Luca Castelnuovo
There is no head to head record between Mathias Bourgue and Luca Castelnuovo since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Mathias Bourgue
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13-19 | 0-1 | 8-13 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-28 | 6-4 | 22-13 | 16-10 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 2022 | 22-19 | 5-5 | 7-10 | 10-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-25 | 6-7 | 11-9 | 12-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-14 | 2-2 | 7-7 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 398, the French player got to the qualifications after beating Luca Sanchez 6-2 6-1.
In the qualifications, Bourgue had a good straight sets win against Sanchez (6-2 6-1). During the match, Bourgue scored 62 points vs Sanchez’s 33. Bourgue was pretty aggressive to blast 17 winners.
Talking about the service games, Bourgue scored 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Mathias Bourgue was extremely efficient on serve to win 71% (17/24) of his 1st serve and 77% (20/26) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Bourgue broke Sanchez 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Bourgue has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (335-219). 8-4 on indoor hard courts in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Bourgue has a composed 78-49 win-loss record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
Mathias has an overall 10-5 win-loss record in 2023, 8-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the St. Brieuc Challenger
The French player has never competed in this tournament before.
Luca Castelnuovo
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6-7 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-23 | 22-15 | 4-3 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| 2022 | 9-16 | 8-7 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| 2021 | 21-30 | 9-10 | 11-18 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 4-13 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 |
Ranked no. 892, Luca reached the qualifications after beating Alexander Donski 6-71 6-3 6-3.
In the qualifications against Donski, Luca recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-71 6-3 6-3). During the match Castelnuovo scored 108 points vs Donski’s 97. Luca was pretty aggressive to blast 55 winners.
About the serving games, Castelnuovo made 8 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Luca Castelnuovo lost the serve once and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Castelnuovo put 66% of his first serves in, winning 77% (55/71) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (15/37) on the 2nd serve. Luca broke Donski 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).
Castelnuovo has a compiled 4-1 win-loss record in 2023, 4-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Bourgue | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 15 | 31 |
| Pts | 62-33 | 108-97 |
| Total Points | 95 | 205 |
| Winners | 17 | 55 |
| %Winners | 27% | 51% |
Both Bourgue and Castelnuovo played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Luca Castelnuovo dropped 1 set while Mathias Bourgue hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Bourgue has played 1 set(s) less than Castelnuovo (2 vs 3). Therefore, Bourgue played 16 games less than Castelnuovo. The French player scored 17 winners (27% of the total points). On the other side, Luca blasted 55 winners (51%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Bourgue | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 8 |
| 1st in | 24/50 | 71/108 |
| %1st in | 48% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 17/24 | 55/71 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 20/26 | 15/37 |
| %2nd pts | 77% | 41% |
Bourgue blasted 7 aces . Castelnuovo scored 8 aces . Bourgue won 71% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 77% of the points. On the other side, Castelnuovo won 77% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 41% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Bourgue | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 4 |
| Converted | 4/5 | 4/11 |
| % Converted | 80% | 36% |
| Conceded | 3 | 12 |
| Saved | 3 | 11 |
| % Saved | 100% | 92% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
Bourgue broke his opponent 4 times with a 80% conversion rate. The French player quite strong on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 3 break points. The Swiss broke his opponent 4 times with a 36% conversion rate. Luca conceded his serve once and he saved 92% of the break points that he conceded.
| Bourgue | |||
| Q1 Sanchez |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 15 | |
| pts | 62-33 | 62-33 | |
| Total points | 95 | 95 | |
| Winners | 17 | 17 | |
| %Winners | 27% | 27% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 7 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 24/50 | 24/50 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 48% | |
| 1st pts | 17/24 | 17/24 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/26 | 20/26 | |
| % 2nd pts | 77% | 77% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 4/5 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 80% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Castelnuovo | |||
| Q1 Donski |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-71 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 31 | |
| pts | 108-97 | 108-97 | |
| Total points | 205 | 205 | |
| Winners | 55 | 55 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 51% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 8 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 71/108 | 71/108 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 55/71 | 55/71 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/37 | 15/37 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 41% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/11 | 4/11 | |
| Converted % | 36% | 36% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 12 | |
| Saved | 11/12 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 92% | 92% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWLWLLWWL
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