Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev will play each other in the final of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 4:00 pm on Stadium 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.82
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.99
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev
This will be the 2nd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Medvedev won 6-4 6-1 6-2 in the 2nd round in at the Wimbledon back in 2021.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz – Wimbledon 01-July-2021
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Carlos reached the final after beating Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-3 6-3, Tallon Griekspoor 7-64 6-3, Jack Draper 6-2 2-0 ret., Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 6-4 and Jannik Sinner 7-64 6-3.
In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Sinner (7-64 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 74 points vs Sinner’s 70. Carlos was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz fired 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 72% of his first serves in, winning 73% (38/52) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (9/20) on the 2nd serve. Alcaraz broke Sinner twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alcaraz hasn’t lost yet a set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 6 years having won 78% of his matches (181-52). 5-0 on hard in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has a composed54-14 win-loss record in the last 6 years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Buenos Aires where he beat Cameron Norrie in the final 6-3 7-5.
The Spaniard has a composed 13-1 win-loss record in 2023, 5-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Medvedev got to the final after beating Brandon Nakashima 6-4 6-3, Ilya Ivashka 6-2 3-6 6-1, Alexander Zverev 6-75 7-65 7-5, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3 7-5 and Frances Tiafoe 7-5 7-64.
In the semifinal, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Tiafoe (7-5 7-64). During the match Medvedev scored 84 points vs Tiafoe’s 66. Daniil was quite aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Talking about serving, Medvedev recorded 9 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Daniil Medvedev was extremely effective on serve to win 80% (35/44) of his 1st serve and 65% (20/31) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Russian broke Tiafoe 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Medvedev has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he beat Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he beat Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2.
The Russian has an overall 24-2 win-loss record in 2023, 19-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 92 | 127 |
| Pts | 329-260 | 440-371 |
| Total Points | 589 | 811 |
| Winners | 139 | 192 |
| %Winners | 42% | 44% |
Both Alcaraz and Medvedev played 5 matches. At the moment, Daniil Medvedev surrendered 2 sets while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Medvedev (11 vs 12). Therefore, Alcaraz played 35 games less than Medvedev. Alcaraz scored 139 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Medvedev struck 192 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 39 |
| Avg per match | 2.2 | 7.8 |
| 1st in | 180/273 | 250/408 |
| %1st in | 66% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 139/180 | 192/250 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 61/93 | 91/158 |
| %2nd pts | 66% | 58% |
Alcaraz bagged 11 aces (2.2 per match). Medvedev bagged 39 aces (7.8 per match). Alcaraz won 77% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, Medvedev won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 16 |
| Converted | 12/36 | 16/46 |
| % Converted | 33% | 35% |
| Conceded | 11 | 39 |
| Saved | 9 | 33 |
| % Saved | 82% | 85% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 6 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 12 times with a 33% conversion rate. Carlos dropped his serve twice and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded. Medvedev broke his opponents 16 times with a 35% conversion rate. Daniil conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 85% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | |||||||
| R2 Kokkinakis |
R3 Griekspoor |
R4 Draper |
1/4 Auger-Aliassime |
1/2 Sinner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-2 2-0 ret. | 6-4 6-4 | 7-64 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 22 | 10 | 20 | 22 | 92 | |
| pts | 61-42 | 76-65 | 41-20 | 77-63 | 74-70 | 329-260 | |
| Total points | 103 | 141 | 61 | 140 | 144 | 589 | |
| Winners | 23 | 33 | 16 | 29 | 38 | 139 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 43% | 39% | 38% | 51% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 28/44 | 44/72 | 20/27 | 36/58 | 52/72 | 180/273 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 61% | 74% | 62% | 72% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 23/28 | 33/44 | 16/20 | 29/36 | 38/52 | 139/180 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 75% | 80% | 81% | 73% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/16 | 19/28 | 6/7 | 13/22 | 9/20 | 61/93 | |
| % 2nd pts | 88% | 68% | 86% | 59% | 45% | 66% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 1/4 | 3/5 | 3/12 | 2/6 | 12/36 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 25% | 60% | 25% | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 3/4 | 1/2 | 9 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | 100% | 75% | 50% | 65% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Medvedev | |||||||
| R2 Nakashima |
R3 Ivashka |
R4 Zverev |
1/4 Davidovich Fokina |
1/2 Tiafoe |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-2 3-6 6-1 | 6-75 7-65 7-5 | 6-3 7-5 | 7-5 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 24 | 38 | 21 | 25 | 127 | |
| pts | 67-50 | 79-65 | 130-125 | 80-65 | 84-66 | 440-371 | |
| Total points | 117 | 144 | 255 | 145 | 150 | 811 | |
| Winners | 24 | 35 | 65 | 33 | 35 | 192 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 44% | 50% | 41% | 42% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 6 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 39 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22 | |
| 1st in | 33/56 | 47/76 | 87/131 | 39/70 | 44/75 | 250/408 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 62% | 66% | 56% | 59% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 24/33 | 35/47 | 65/87 | 33/39 | 35/44 | 192/250 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 74% | 75% | 85% | 80% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/23 | 14/29 | 24/44 | 17/31 | 20/31 | 91/158 | |
| % 2nd pts | 70% | 48% | 55% | 55% | 65% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 5/13 | 3/8 | 2/7 | 3/11 | 16/46 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 38% | 38% | 29% | 27% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 39 | |
| Saved | 6/6 | 5/7 | 15/17 | 6/6 | 1/3 | 33 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 71% | 88% | 100% | 33% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWLLWLWWW
LWLLLWWWLW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Rohan Bopanna/Matthew EbdenBopanna/Matthew Ebden – Wesley Koolhof/Neal SkupskiKoolhof/Neal Skupski (6-3 2-6 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-1) – H2H and prediction
