Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari will square off in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 3:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.42
Maria Sakkari -> 2.875
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Maria Sakkari
This will be the 8th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari square off. The head to head is 4-3 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 4-3 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Sakkari won 6-2 6-4 in the R in Fort Worth back in 2022.
Highlights Maria Sakkari vs Aryna Sabalenka – Fort Worth 02-November-2022
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19-2 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2019 | 39-22 | 28-12 | 5-5 | 4-1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Sabalenka got to the semifinal after beating Evgeniya Rodina 6-2 6-0, Lesya Tsurenko w/o, Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 2-6 6-4 and Cori Gauff 6-4 6-0.
In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Gauff (6-4 6-0). During the match, Sabalenka scored 59 points vs Gauff’s 36. Sabalenka was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka scored 5 aces and she was very solid in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was very efficient on serve to win 87% (26/30) of her 1st serve and 55% (6/11) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Belarussian broke Gauff 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has lost 1 set in this event to conquer 57% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 66% of her matches (279-141). 16-1 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an aggregate170-77 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she defeated Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she overcame Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4.
The Belarussian has an overall 16-1 win-loss record in 2023, 16-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Maria Sakkari
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 15-7 | 12-6 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-23 | 21-12 | 8-5 | 4-2 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-20 | 23-13 | 9-4 | 5-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-11 | 12-7 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2019 | 33-23 | 11-11 | 15-5 | 2-3 | 5-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, Sakkari got to the semifinal after beating Shelby Rogers 2-6 6-4 6-0, Anhelina Kalinina 3-6 6-2 6-4, Karolina Pliskova 6-4 5-7 6-3 and Petra Kvitova 4-6 7-5 6-1.
In the quarter against Kvitova, The Greek recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-5 6-1). During the match Sakkari scored 90 points vs Kvitova’s 88. Sakkari was pretty aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Talking about serving, Sakkari made 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Maria Sakkari lost the serve 3 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Sakkari put 59% of her first serves in, winning 73% (37/51) of the points behind her 1st serve and 43% (15/35) on the 2nd serve. Sakkari broke Kvitova 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Greek has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points she played.
The Greek’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Australia, Linz and Doha.
Sakkari has a composed 15-5 win-loss record in 2023, 12-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 57 | 111 |
| Pts | 209-160 | 386-364 |
| Total Points | 369 | 750 |
| Winners | 89 | 141 |
| %Winners | 43% | 37% |
Sabalenka played 3 matches while Sakkari competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 1 set, while Maria Sakkari dropped 4 sets. Sabalenka has played 5 set(s) less than Sakkari (7 vs 12). Therefore, Sabalenka played 54 games less than Sakkari. Sabalenka scored 89 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Greek managed to score 141 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 21 | 22 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 5.5 |
| 1st in | 113/175 | 195/355 |
| %1st in | 65% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 89/113 | 141/195 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 27/62 | 63/160 |
| %2nd pts | 44% | 39% |
Sabalenka blasted 21 aces (7 per match). Sakkari fired 22 aces (5.5 per match). Sabalenka won 79% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 44% of the points. On the other side, Sakkari won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 39% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 23 |
| Converted | 12/31 | 23/57 |
| % Converted | 39% | 40% |
| Conceded | 8 | 38 |
| Saved | 5 | 23 |
| % Saved | 63% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 15 |
Aryna broke her opponents 12 times with a 39% conversion rate. Sabalenka lost her serve 3 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded. The Greek broke her opponents 23 times with a 40% conversion rate. Maria conceded her serve 15 times and she saved 61% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R2 Rodina |
R3 Tsurenko |
R4 Krejcikova |
1/4 Gauff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-0 | w/o | 6-3 2-6 6-4 | 6-4 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | – | 27 | 16 | 57 | |
| pts | 64-38 | – | 86-86 | 59-36 | 209-160 | |
| Total points | 102 | – | 172 | 95 | 369 | |
| Winners | 24 | – | 39 | 26 | 89 | |
| %Winners | 38% | – | 45% | 44% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | – | 11 | 5 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | – | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 30/50 | – | 53/84 | 30/41 | 113/175 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | – | 63% | 73% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | – | 39/53 | 26/30 | 89/113 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | – | 74% | 87% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/20 | – | 12/31 | 6/11 | 27/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | – | 39% | 55% | 44% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | – | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | – | 3/11 | 4/8 | 12/31 | |
| Converted % | 42% | – | 27% | 50% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 4 | – | 4 | 0 | 8 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | – | 1/4 | 0/0 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 25% | – | 31% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | – | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Sakkari | ||||||
| R2 Rogers |
R3 Kalinina |
R4 Pliskova |
1/4 Kvitova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-4 6-0 | 3-6 6-2 6-4 | 6-4 5-7 6-3 | 4-6 7-5 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 111 | |
| pts | 81-71 | 97-93 | 118-112 | 90-88 | 386-364 | |
| Total points | 152 | 190 | 230 | 178 | 750 | |
| Winners | 29 | 35 | 40 | 37 | 141 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 36% | 34% | 41% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 25 | |
| 1st in | 45/81 | 49/95 | 50/93 | 51/86 | 195/355 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 52% | 54% | 59% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 29/45 | 35/49 | 40/50 | 37/51 | 141/195 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 71% | 80% | 73% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/36 | 21/46 | 12/43 | 15/35 | 63/160 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 46% | 28% | 43% | 39% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23 | |
| Converted | 6/8 | 5/11 | 7/29 | 5/9 | 23/57 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 45% | 24% | 56% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 38 | |
| Saved | 8/12 | 6/9 | 3/8 | 6/9 | 23 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 67% | 38% | 67% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWWWWLWW
LLWWWWLLWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Frederico GilGil – Jaime Pulgar-GarciaPulgar-Garcia (6-2 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Elena RybakinaRybakina (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (3-4) – H2H and prediction
