Aryna Sabalenka and Cori Gauff will fight against each other in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.59
Cori Gauff -> 2.36
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Cori Gauff
This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Cori Gauff fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Gauff (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Gauff won 7-5 4-6 7-6(4) in the 3rd round in Toronto back in 2022.
Highlights Cori Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka – Toronto 11-August-2022
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30-9 | 14-4 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Sabalenka got to the quarter after beating Evgeniya Rodina 6-2 6-0, Lesya Tsurenko w/o and Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 2-6 6-4.
In the 4th round, Aryna defeated Krejcikova (6-3 2-6 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka and Krejcikova scored the same amount of points (86). However, the world no. 2 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. The Belarussian was extremely aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored 11 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 63% of her first serves in, winning 74% (39/53) of the points behind her 1st serve and 39% (12/31) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Krejcikova 3 times after converting 27% of her break points (3/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 66% of her matches (278-141). 15-1 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a composed169-77 record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4.
Sabalenka has an overall 15-1 win-loss record in 2023, 15-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Cori Gauff
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37-11 | 18-5 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-16 | 40-9 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 38-23 | 23-16 | 10-4 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-16 | 16-10 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 12-8 | 7-5 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Gauff reached the quarter after defeating Cristina Bucsa 6-2 6-4, Linda Noskova 6-4 6-3 and Rebecca Peterson 6-3 1-6 6-4.
In the 4th round, Gauff defeated Peterson (6-3 1-6 6-4). During the match Gauff and Peterson scored the same amount of points (90). However, the world no. 2 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Cori was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Gauff recorded 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Cori Gauff lost the serve 4 times and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Gauff put 63% of her first serves in, winning 54% (31/57) of the points behind her 1st serve and 65% (22/34) on the 2nd serve. Cori broke Peterson 4 times after converting 31% of her break points (4/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Auckland where she overcame Rebeka Masarova in the final 6-1 6-1.
Gauff has a composed 14-3 win-loss record in 2023, 14-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021 and 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 41 | 63 |
| Pts | 150-124 | 217-187 |
| Total Points | 274 | 404 |
| Winners | 63 | 87 |
| %Winners | 42% | 40% |
Sabalenka played 2 matches while Gauff competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set, while Cori Gauff surrendered 1 set. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Gauff (5 vs 7). Therefore, Sabalenka played 22 games less than Gauff. Sabalenka scored 63 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Cori bagged 87 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 16 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 5 |
| 1st in | 83/134 | 128/199 |
| %1st in | 62% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 63/83 | 87/128 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 21/51 | 43/71 |
| %2nd pts | 41% | 61% |
Sabalenka bagged 16 aces (8 per match). Gauff fired 15 aces (5 per match). Sabalenka won 76% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 41% of the points. On the other side, Gauff won 68% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 11 |
| Converted | 8/23 | 11/23 |
| % Converted | 35% | 48% |
| Conceded | 8 | 22 |
| Saved | 5 | 17 |
| % Saved | 63% | 77% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 5 |
Aryna broke her opponents 8 times with a 35% conversion rate. Sabalenka surrendered her serve 3 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded. Gauff broke her opponents 11 times with a 48% conversion rate. Cori conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 77% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Rodina |
R3 Tsurenko |
R4 Krejcikova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-0 | w/o | 6-3 2-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | – | 27 | 41 | |
| pts | 64-38 | – | 86-86 | 150-124 | |
| Total points | 102 | – | 172 | 274 | |
| Winners | 24 | – | 39 | 63 | |
| %Winners | 38% | – | 45% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | – | 11 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | – | 4 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 30/50 | – | 53/84 | 83/134 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | – | 63% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | – | 39/53 | 63/83 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | – | 74% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/20 | – | 12/31 | 21/51 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | – | 39% | 41% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | – | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | – | 3/11 | 8/23 | |
| Converted % | 42% | – | 27% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 4 | – | 4 | 8 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | – | 1/4 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 25% | 42% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | – | 3 | 3 | |
| Gauff | |||||
| R2 Bucsa |
R3 Noskova |
R4 Peterson |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-4 6-3 | 6-3 1-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 19 | 26 | 63 | |
| pts | 63-46 | 64-51 | 90-90 | 217-187 | |
| Total points | 109 | 115 | 180 | 404 | |
| Winners | 25 | 31 | 31 | 87 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 48% | 34% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 7 | 6 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 36/57 | 35/51 | 57/91 | 128/199 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 69% | 63% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 25/36 | 31/35 | 31/57 | 87/128 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 89% | 54% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/21 | 7/16 | 22/34 | 43/71 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 44% | 65% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 3/5 | 4/13 | 11/23 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 60% | 31% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 1/1 | 10/14 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 100% | 71% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWWWLWW
WWLWWWLWWL Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Pablo Vivero GonzalezVivero Gonzalez – Andres Artunedo MartinavarrArtunedo Martinavarr (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Frederico GilGil – David Perez SanzPerez Sanz (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jaime Pulgar-GarciaPulgar-Garcia – Evan FurnessFurness (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Elena RybakinaRybakina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Petra KvitovaKvitova (4-3) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (3-1) – H2H and prediction
