Daniil Medvedev and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will fight against each other in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 3:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.222
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -> 4.3
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
This will be the 3rd time that Daniil Medvedev and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina play each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Medvedev won 4-6 6-2 6-2 in the 1st round in Rotterdam back in February 2023.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Rotterdam 14-February-2023
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-23 | 20-12 | 6-4 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Daniil got to the quarter after beating Brandon Nakashima 6-4 6-3, Ilya Ivashka 6-2 3-6 6-1 and Alexander Zverev 6-75 7-65 7-5.
In the 4th round against Zverev, Medvedev recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 7-65 7-5). During the match, Medvedev scored 130 points vs Zverev’s 125. Medvedev was pretty aggressive to blast 65 winners.
Talking about the service games, Medvedev fired 12 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Daniil Medvedev was extremely efficient on serve to win 75% (65/87) of his 1st serve and 55% (24/44) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Daniil broke Zverev 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniil has lost 2 set in this event to conquer 53% of the points he played.
Medvedev has an impressive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (445-180). 17-2 on hard in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Medvedev has an overall 198-64 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he overcame Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he overcame Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2.
Daniil has an aggregate 22-2 win-loss record in 2023, 17-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 44-26 | 22-14 | 9-6 | 8-4 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-22 | 13-12 | 2-5 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-28 | 18-11 | 9-8 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-26 | 7-9 | 11-8 | 0-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-25 | 4-6 | 16-7 | 9-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 28, the Spaniard reached the quarter after beating Yibing Wu 6-4 6-1, Karen Khachanov 6-3 1-6 6-4 and Cristian Garin 6-3 6-4.
In the 4th round, Alejandro had a good straight sets win against Garin (6-3 6-4). During the match Davidovich Fokina scored 62 points vs Garin’s 51. The Spaniard was exceptionally aggressive to blast 22 winners.
About the serving games, Davidovich Fokina made 5 aces and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was extremely effective on serve to win 71% (22/31) of his 1st serve and 58% (15/26) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Alejandro broke Garin 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Alejandro has an overall 10-6 win-loss record in 2023, 9-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021 and 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 81 | 62 |
| Pts | 276-240 | 218-188 |
| Total Points | 516 | 406 |
| Winners | 124 | 70 |
| %Winners | 45% | 32% |
Both Medvedev and Davidovich Fokina played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev surrendered 2 sets, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina surrendered 1 set. Medvedev has played 1 set more than Davidovich Fokina (8 vs 7). Therefore, Medvedev played 19 games more than Davidovich Fokina. Daniil scored 124 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Alejandro fired 70 winners (32%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 26 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 8.7 | 2.7 |
| 1st in | 167/263 | 98/188 |
| %1st in | 63% | 52% |
| 1st pts | 124/167 | 70/98 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 54/96 | 52/90 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 58% |
Medvedev made 26 aces (8.7 per match). Davidovich Fokina bagged 8 aces (2.7 per match). Medvedev won 74% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Davidovich Fokina won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 11 |
| Converted | 11/28 | 11/21 |
| % Converted | 39% | 52% |
| Conceded | 30 | 13 |
| Saved | 26 | 7 |
| % Saved | 87% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 6 |
The Russian broke his opponents 11 times with a 39% conversion rate. Daniil conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 87% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 11 times with a 52% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 54% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | |||||
| R2 Nakashima | R3 Ivashka | R4 Zverev | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-2 3-6 6-1 | 6-75 7-65 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 24 | 38 | 81 | |
| pts | 67-50 | 79-65 | 130-125 | 276-240 | |
| Total points | 117 | 144 | 255 | 516 | |
| Winners | 24 | 35 | 65 | 124 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 44% | 50% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 | 5 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 33/56 | 47/76 | 87/131 | 167/263 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 62% | 66% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 24/33 | 35/47 | 65/87 | 124/167 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 74% | 75% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/23 | 14/29 | 24/44 | 54/96 | |
| % 2nd pts | 70% | 48% | 55% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 5/13 | 3/8 | 11/28 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 38% | 38% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 7 | 17 | 30 | |
| Saved | 6/6 | 5/7 | 15/17 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 71% | 88% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Davidovich Fokina | |||||
| R2 Wu | R3 Khachanov | R4 Garin | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-1 | 6-3 1-6 6-4 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 26 | 19 | 62 | |
| pts | 69-48 | 87-89 | 62-51 | 218-188 | |
| Total points | 117 | 176 | 113 | 406 | |
| Winners | 21 | 27 | 22 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 31% | 35% | 32% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 24/48 | 43/83 | 31/57 | 98/188 | |
| % 1st in | 50% | 52% | 54% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 21/24 | 27/43 | 22/31 | 70/98 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 63% | 71% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/24 | 21/40 | 15/26 | 52/90 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 53% | 58% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 4/11 | 4/5 | 11/21 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 36% | 80% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 10 | 3 | 13 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 6/10 | 1/3 | 7 | |
| Saved % | – | 60% | 33% | 31% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Marton FucsovicsFucsovics – Alex MolcanMolcan (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (4-6 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (7-67 6-4) – See score progression
- Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Stan WawrinkaWawrinka – Holger RuneRune (6-2 6-75 7-5) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Sebastian BaezBaez (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (7-64 6-3) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Andy MurrayMurray (7-66 6-2) – See score progression
- Cristian GarinGarin – Casper RuudRuud (6-4 7-62) – See score progression
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Jason Murray KublerMurray Kubler (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-3 1-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori (7-5 1-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Taro DanielDaniel (6-75 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Ugo HumbertHumbert (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-3 7-66) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Ilya IvashkaIvashka (6-2 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Jannik SinnerSinner (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-3) – H2H and prediction