Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper will square off in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 6:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.28
Jack Draper -> 3.68

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jack Draper

This will be the 2nd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Alcaraz won 3-6 6-2 7-5 in the 1st round in Basel back in 2022.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper – Basel 24-October-2022

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
1
High
1
LWWWWLWWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 71-9 28-4 22-1 10-3 11-1 0-0
2024 54-13 22-5 17-4 7-3 8-1 0-0
2023 65-12 26-6 25-3 2-3 12-0 0-0
2022 57-13 21-4 27-4 6-4 3-1 0-0
2021 48-19 15-8 22-7 10-3 1-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 2, Carlos got to the 4th round after defeating Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-3 6-3 and Tallon Griekspoor 7-64 6-3.

In the 3rd round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Griekspoor (7-64 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 76 points vs Griekspoor’s 65. Alcaraz was quite aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz wasn’t able to score even 1 ace and he committed only 3 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (33/44) of his 1st serve and 68% (19/28) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alcaraz broke Griekspoor once after converting 25% of his break points (1/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alcaraz hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 6 years having won 77% of his matches (178-52). 2-0 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a compiled51-14 record in the last 6 years on hard.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Buenos Aires where he beat Cameron Norrie in the final 6-3 7-5.

The Spaniard has an overall 10-1 win-loss record in 2023, 2-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Indian Wells
Alcaraz's Record

Jack Draper

Jack Draper

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
10
High
4
WLWLWWWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 30-9 14-3 12-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2024 39-22 19-10 5-7 7-3 8-2 0-0
2023 34-15 15-8 3-3 16-4 0-0 0-0
2022 46-19 12-6 2-2 26-7 6-4 0-0
2021 18-16 6-6 7-5 3-2 2-2 0-1
See all years

Ranked no. 56, Draper reached the 4th round after beating Leandro Riedi 6-1 6-1, Daniel Evans 6-4 6-2 and Andy Murray 7-66 6-2.

In the 3rd round, Draper had a good straight sets win against Murray (7-66 6-2). During the match Draper scored 77 points vs Murray’s 64. The Brit was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about serving, Draper managed to score 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Jack Draper was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 73% (29/40) of his 1st serve and 68% (17/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Jack broke Murray 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jack hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.

The Brit’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide.

The Brit has a composed 7-3 win-loss record in 2023, 7-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Draper has never competed in this tournament before.

Indian Wells
Draper's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

C.Alcaraz
J.Draper
2h:57
2h:57
Time on court​
!
4h:59
4h:59
1h:41
1h:41
Last match​
!
2h:03
2h:03
2
2
Match played
!
3
3
40
40
Games Played​
53
53
4
4
Set played​​
6
6
137
137
Total points​
207
207
68.5
68.5
Avg point​
69
69
56
56
Winners
80
80
28
28
Avg Winners​
26.7
26.7
41%
41%
Ratio winners
39%
39%
-- Serve --
1
1
Aces
24
24
0.5
0.5
Avg Aces
8
8
4
4
Double Faults
8
8
2
2
Avg Double Faults
2.7
2.7
56/72
56/72
1st won total​
80/108
80/108
!
78%
78%
1st won %
!
74%
74%
33/44
33/44
2nd won total​
39/72
39/72
!
75%
75%
2nd won %
54%
54%
-- Break Points --
4/13
4/13
BP won
13/27
13/27
2/6.5
2/6.5
Avg BP won
4.3/9
4.3/9
31%
31%
Won
48%
48%
2
2
Conceded
18
18
1
1
Avg Conceded
6
6
0
0
Broken
3
3
!
0
0
Avg Broken
1
1
2
2
Saved
15
15
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Alcaraz Draper
Match played 2 3
Tot Set 4 6
Tot Games 40 53
Pts 137-107 207-155
Total Points 244 362
Winners 56 80
%Winners 41% 39%

Alcaraz played 2 matches while Draper competed in 3 matches. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Alcaraz has played 2 set(s) less than Draper (4 vs 6). Therefore, Alcaraz played 13 games less than Draper. The Spaniard scored 56 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Brit made 80 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve Alcaraz Draper
Aces 1 24
Avg per match 0.5 8
1st in 72/116 108/180
%1st in 62% 60%
1st pts 56/72 80/108
%1st pts 78% 74%
2nd pts 33/44 39/72
%2nd pts 75% 54%

Alcaraz fired 1 ace (0.5 per match). Draper also scored 24 aces (8 per match). Alcaraz won 78% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 75% of the points. On the other side, Draper won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Alcaraz Draper
Won 4 13
Converted 4/13 13/27
% Converted 31% 48%
Conceded 2 18
Saved 2 15
% Saved 100% 83%
Times Broken 0 3

Carlos broke his opponents 4 times with a 31% conversion rate. Carlos pretty effective on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 2 break points. Jack broke his opponents 13 times with a 48% conversion rate. The Brit conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
R2
Kokkinakis		 R3
Griekspoor		 Total
Score 6-3 6-3 7-64 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 18 22 40
pts 61-42 76-65 137-107
Total points 103 141 244
Winners 23 33 56
%Winners 38% 43% 41%
SERVE
Aces 1 0 1
Double Faults 1 3 4
1st in 28/44 44/72 72/116
% 1st in 64% 61% 62%
1st pts 23/28 33/44 56/72
% 1st pts 82% 75% 78%
2nd pts 14/16 19/28 33/44
% 2nd pts 88% 68% 75%
Breaks
Won 3 1 4
Converted 3/9 1/4 4/13
Converted % 33% 25% 31%
Conceded 0 2 2
Saved 0/0 2/2 2
Saved % – 100% 50%
Times Broken 0 0 0
Draper
R1
Riedi		 R2
Evans		 R3
Murray		 Total
Score 6-1 6-1 6-4 6-2 7-66 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 14 18 21 53
pts 55-27 75-64 77-64 207-155
Total points 82 139 141 362
Winners 20 31 29 80
%Winners 36% 41% 38% 39%
SERVE
Aces 8 8 8 24
Double Faults 1 6 1 8
1st in 23/36 45/79 40/65 108/180
% 1st in 64% 57% 62% 60%
1st pts 20/23 31/45 29/40 80/108
% 1st pts 87% 69% 73% 74%
2nd pts 6/13 16/34 17/25 39/72
% 2nd pts 46% 47% 68% 54%
Breaks
Won 6 4 3 13
Converted 6/7 4/10 3/10 13/27
Converted % 86% 40% 30% 48%
Conceded 2 11 5 18
Saved 1/2 10/11 4/5 15
Saved % 50% 91% 80% 111%
Times Broken 1 1 1 3

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

Upcoming matches in the draw

Alcaraz
More Stats
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Draper

Click for FULL STATS