Elena Rybakina and Varvara Gracheva will square off in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 5:00 pm on STADIUM 3. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.17
Varvara Gracheva -> 5.05
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva
This will be the 2nd time that Elena Rybakina and Varvara Gracheva fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Rybakina (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Rybakina won 6-2 6-1 in the 1st round in St. Petersburg back in 2022.
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35-7 | 22-4 | 12-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10 (career-high), Rybakina reached the 4th round after defeating Sofia Kenin 7-66 7-65 and Paula Badosa Gibert 6-3 7-5.
In the 3rd round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Badosa (6-3 7-5). During the match, Rybakina scored 76 points vs Badosa’s 63. The Kazakhstani was exceptionally aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Rybakina recorded 9 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Elena Rybakina lost the serve once and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 58% of her first serves in, winning 68% (30/44) of the points behind her 1st serve and 59% (19/32) on the 2nd serve. Rybakina broke Badosa 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elena hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Rybakina has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (254-121). 12-4 on hard in 2023. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Rybakina has an overall108-59 record in the last 9 years on hard.
Rybakina’s best result of the current year was getting to the final at the Australian Open .
The Kazakhstani has an overall 12-4 win-loss record in 2023, 12-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Varvara Gracheva
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19-17 | 4-8 | 15-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-30 | 23-18 | 7-6 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-32 | 7-11 | 12-14 | 10-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 27-31 | 11-10 | 7-10 | 9-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 10-14 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 66, the Russian reached the 4th round after defeating Petra Marcinko 7-62 6-4, Anna-Lena Friedsam 7-65 6-76 6-4, Ysaline Bonaventure 6-2 6-2, Petra Martic 6-3 6-2 and Daria Kasatkina 6-4 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Varvara had a good straight sets win against Kasatkina (6-4 6-4). During the match Gracheva scored 75 points vs Kasatkina’s 65. Gracheva was exceptionally aggressive to blast 23 winners.
About the serving games, Gracheva couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she was very solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Varvara Gracheva lost the serve 4 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Gracheva put 62% of her first serves in, winning 52% (23/44) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (14/27) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Kasatkina 6 times after converting 67% of her break points (6/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Varvara’s best result of the current season was getting to the final Austin.
Gracheva has a compiled 16-9 win-loss record in 2023, 14-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Varvara has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rybakina | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 47 | 112 |
| Pts | 166-143 | 401-349 |
| Total Points | 309 | 750 |
| Winners | 69 | 146 |
| %Winners | 42% | 36% |
Rybakina played 2 matches while Gracheva competed in 5 matches. Gracheva started her run from the qualifications while Rybakina had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Varvara Gracheva surrendered 1 set while Elena Rybakina hasn’t dropped a set so far. Rybakina has played 7 set(s) less than Gracheva (4 vs 11). Therefore, Rybakina played 65 games less than Gracheva. Elena scored 69 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Varvara bagged 146 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rybakina | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 7.5 | 1.4 |
| 1st in | 93/165 | 244/376 |
| %1st in | 56% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 69/93 | 146/244 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 60% |
| 2nd pts | 39/72 | 77/132 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 58% |
Rybakina managed to score 15 aces (7.5 per match). Gracheva managed to score 7 aces (1.4 per match). Rybakina won 74% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Gracheva won 60% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rybakina | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 25 |
| Converted | 6/14 | 25/50 |
| % Converted | 43% | 50% |
| Conceded | 13 | 29 |
| Saved | 10 | 15 |
| % Saved | 77% | 52% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 14 |
Rybakina broke her opponents 6 times with a 43% conversion rate. Elena conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 77% of the break points that she conceded. Varvara broke her opponents 25 times with a 50% conversion rate. Gracheva conceded her serve 14 times and she saved 52% of the break points that she conceded.
| Rybakina | ||||
| R2 Kenin |
R3 Badosa |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-66 7-65 | 6-3 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 21 | 47 | |
| pts | 90-80 | 76-63 | 166-143 | |
| Total points | 170 | 139 | 309 | |
| Winners | 39 | 30 | 69 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 39% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 9 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 1 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 49/89 | 44/76 | 93/165 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 58% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 39/49 | 30/44 | 69/93 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 68% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/40 | 19/32 | 39/72 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 59% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 4/8 | 6/14 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 6 | 13 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 5/6 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 83% | 77% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Gracheva | |||||||
| Q1 Marcinko |
Q3 Friedsam |
R1 Bonaventure |
R2 Martic |
R3 Kasatkina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-62 6-4 | 7-65 6-76 6-4 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 36 | 16 | 17 | 20 | 112 | |
| pts | 78-69 | 128-128 | 58-40 | 62-47 | 75-65 | 401-349 | |
| Total points | 147 | 256 | 98 | 109 | 140 | 750 | |
| Winners | 28 | 40 | 25 | 30 | 23 | 146 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 31% | 43% | 48% | 31% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 45/73 | 79/120 | 32/51 | 44/61 | 44/71 | 244/376 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 66% | 63% | 72% | 62% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 28/45 | 40/79 | 25/32 | 30/44 | 23/44 | 146/244 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 51% | 78% | 68% | 52% | 60% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/28 | 26/41 | 11/19 | 12/17 | 14/27 | 77/132 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 63% | 58% | 71% | 52% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 25 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 7/14 | 4/7 | 3/7 | 6/9 | 25/50 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 50% | 57% | 43% | 67% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 29 | |
| Saved | 4/8 | 6/12 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 1/5 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 20% | 160% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWWWLWW
LLWWWLWWWL Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu (6-3 7-61) – See score progression
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Martina TrevisanTrevisan (6-4 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Bernarda PeraPera (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Varvara GrachevaGracheva – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-1 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Ons JabeurJabeur (7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-4 6-75 6-1) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (w/o) – See score progression
- Petra KvitovaKvitova – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (0-6 6-0 6-4) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (3-6 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Linda NoskovaNoskova (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Xinyu WangWang (6-2 6-71 6-2) – See score progression
- Rebecca PetersonPeterson – Jil TeichmannTeichmann (3-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Karolina PliskovaPliskova – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (3-6 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu (6-3 7-6(1)) – See score progression
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Ons JabeurJabeur (7-6(5) 6-4) – See score progression
- Varvara GrachevaGracheva – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Caroline GarciaGarcia (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Varvara GrachevaGracheva (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Petra KvitovaKvitova – Jessica PegulaPegula (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Rebecca PetersonPeterson (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-2) – H2H and prediction
