Felix Auger-Aliassime and Tommy Paul will fight against each other in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 8:00 pm on STADIUM 2. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Felix Auger-Aliassime who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Felix Auger-Aliassime is the pick to win this match.
Felix Auger-Aliassime -> 1.89
Tommy Paul -> 1.909

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Prediction and head to head Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Tommy Paul

There is no head to head record between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Tommy Paul since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Felix Auger-Aliassime

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
5
High
5
LWWLLWWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 50-25 24-10 3-6 17-5 6-4 0-0
2024 32-25 6-10 17-8 9-5 0-2 0-0
2023 23-19 13-13 1-3 9-2 0-1 0-0
2022 60-27 14-9 11-7 31-7 4-4 0-0
2021 38-24 19-10 4-6 5-5 10-3 0-0

Ranked no. 10, the Canadian reached the 4th round after beating Pedro Martinez Portero 7-65 6-4 and Francisco Cerundolo 7-5 6-4.

In the 3rd round, The Canadian had a good straight sets win against Cerundolo (7-5 6-4). During the match, Auger-Aliassime scored 77 points vs Cerundolo’s 69. Auger-Aliassime was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Regarding the service games, Auger-Aliassime scored 6 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Felix Auger-Aliassime lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Auger-Aliassime put 49% of his first serves in, winning 76% (31/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (21/42) on the 2nd serve. Auger-Aliassime broke Cerundolo 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Canadian hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to conquer 53% of the points he played.

Auger-Aliassime has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 64% of his matches (294-164). 8-4 on hard in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Auger-Aliassime has a compiled96-64 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.

Felix’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Doha.

Felix has an overall 10-5 win-loss record in 2023, 8-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Indian Wells
Auger-Aliassime's Record

Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
20
High
8
LWWLWLWLLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 29-13 13-6 12-4 3-1 1-2 0-0
2024 45-20 17-12 10-4 8-2 10-2 0-0
2023 46-29 29-13 5-6 3-5 9-5 0-0
2022 39-27 21-12 2-6 9-5 7-4 0-0
2021 33-23 12-12 9-7 12-4 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 19, the American reached the 4th round after beating Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3 6-3 and Hubert Hurkacz 4-6 6-2 6-4.

In the 3rd round against Hurkacz, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-2 6-4). During the match Paul scored 89 points vs Hurkacz’s 79. Paul was exceptionally aggressive to blast 47 winners.

About the serving games, Paul fired 6 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 67% of his first serves in, winning 81% (47/58) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (12/29) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Hurkacz 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Paul has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

The American’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Acapulco.

The American has an overall 14-4 win-loss record in 2023, 13-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2021. See his history.

Indian Wells
Paul's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

F.Auger-Aliassime
T.Paul
4h:35
4h:35
Time on court​
3h:15
3h:15
!
2h:10
2h:10
Last match​
1h:56
1h:56
2
2
Match played
2
2
45
45
Games Played​
46
46
4
4
Set played​​
5
5
169
169
Total points​
156
156
84.5
84.5
Avg point​
78
78
58
58
Winners
71
71
29
29
Avg Winners​
35.5
35.5
34%
34%
Ratio winners
46%
46%
-- Serve --
16
16
Aces
12
12
8
8
Avg Aces
6
6
12
12
Double Faults
5
5
!
6
6
Avg Double Faults
2.5
2.5
58/74
58/74
1st won total​
71/95
71/95
!
78%
78%
1st won %
!
75%
75%
41/77
41/77
2nd won total​
25/44
25/44
53%
53%
2nd won %
57%
57%
-- Break Points --
6/25
6/25
BP won
8/22
8/22
3/12.5
3/12.5
Avg BP won
4/11
4/11
!
24%
24%
Won
36%
36%
8
8
Conceded
12
12
4
4
Avg Conceded
6
6
3
3
Broken
3
3
1.5
1.5
Avg Broken
1.5
1.5
5
5
Saved
9
9

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Auger-Aliassime Paul
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 4 5
Tot Games 45 46
Pts 169-151 156-128
Total Points 320 284
Winners 58 71
%Winners 34% 46%

Both Auger-Aliassime and Paul played 2 matches. At the moment, Tommy Paul surrendered 1 set while Felix Auger-Aliassime hasn’t lost a set so far. Auger-Aliassime has played 1 set(s) less than Paul (4 vs 5). Therefore, Auger-Aliassime played 1 game less than Paul. Auger-Aliassime scored 58 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, Paul scored 71 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve Auger-Aliassime Paul
Aces 16 12
Avg per match 8 6
1st in 74/151 95/139
%1st in 49% 68%
1st pts 58/74 71/95
%1st pts 78% 75%
2nd pts 41/77 25/44
%2nd pts 53% 57%

Auger-Aliassime bagged 16 aces (8 per match). Paul bagged 12 aces (6 per match). Auger-Aliassime won 78% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 75% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Auger-Aliassime Paul
Won 6 8
Converted 6/25 8/22
% Converted 24% 36%
Conceded 8 12
Saved 5 9
% Saved 63% 75%
Times Broken 3 3

Auger-Aliassime broke his opponents 6 times with a 24% conversion rate. The Canadian dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. Tommy broke his opponents 8 times with a 36% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Auger-Aliassime
R2
Martinez Portero
R3
Cerundolo
Total
Score 7-65 6-4 7-5 6-4
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 23 22 45
pts 92-82 77-69 169-151
Total points 174 146 320
Winners 27 31 58
%Winners 29% 40% 34%
SERVE
Aces 10 6 16
Double Faults 4 8 12
1st in 33/68 41/83 74/151
% 1st in 49% 49% 49%
1st pts 27/33 31/41 58/74
% 1st pts 82% 76% 78%
2nd pts 20/35 21/42 41/77
% 2nd pts 57% 50% 53%
Breaks
Won 2 4 6
Converted 2/17 4/8 6/25
Converted % 12% 50% 24%
Conceded 1 7 8
Saved 0/1 5/7 5
Saved % 0% 71% 36%
Times Broken 1 2 3
Paul
R2
Struff
R3
Hurkacz
Total
Score 6-3 6-3 4-6 6-2 6-4
Tot Set 2 3 5
Tot Games 18 28 46
pts 67-49 89-79 156-128
Total points 116 168 284
Winners 24 47 71
%Winners 36% 53% 46%
SERVE
Aces 6 6 12
Double Faults 0 5 5
1st in 37/52 58/87 95/139
% 1st in 71% 67% 68%
1st pts 24/37 47/58 71/95
% 1st pts 65% 81% 75%
2nd pts 13/15 12/29 25/44
% 2nd pts 87% 41% 57%
Breaks
Won 4 4 8
Converted 4/12 4/10 8/22
Converted % 33% 40% 36%
Conceded 4 8 12
Saved 3/4 6/8 9
Saved % 75% 75% 75%
Times Broken 1 2 3

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

Upcoming matches in the draw