Pavel Kotov and Mattia Bellucci will face off in the qualifications of the Phoenix Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 12:30 pm on COURT 2. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Mattia Bellucci who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Mattia Bellucci is the pick to win this match.
Mattia Bellucci -> 1.75
Pavel Kotov -> 1.99
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Prediction and head to head Pavel Kotov vs. Mattia Bellucci
There is no head to head record between Pavel Kotov and Mattia Bellucci since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Pavel Kotov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-17 | 5-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-25 | 9-11 | 11-9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 13-14 | 20-12 | 9-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-20 | 5-3 | 20-9 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-25 | 5-5 | 7-11 | 17-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 117, Pavel got to the qualifications after beating Alex Lawson 6-1 6-0.
In the qualifications, Pavel had a good straight sets win against Lawson (6-1 6-0). During the match, Kotov scored 57 points vs Lawson’s 26. Kotov was exceptionally aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Regarding the service games, Kotov scored just 1 ace during the match and he committed only 1 double fault. Pavel Kotov was pretty effective on serve to win 80% (20/25) of his 1st serve and 83% (5/6) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Lawson 6 times after converting 55% of his break points (6/11).
Kotov has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 61% of his matches (214-135). 7-7 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Kotov has an aggregate43-27 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
The Russian has an overall 7-7 win-loss record in 2023, 7-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Phoenix Challenger
Pavel has never competed in this tournament before.
Mattia Bellucci
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-22 | 2-7 | 3-7 | 6-3 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 51-33 | 31-18 | 5-2 | 9-9 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-34 | 22-19 | 2-9 | 4-3 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 66-23 | 30-4 | 25-12 | 11-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-18 | 29-10 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 150, Mattia reached the qualifications after beating Murphy Cassone 6-3 3-6 6-1.
In the qualifications, Mattia defeated Cassone (6-3 3-6 6-1). During the match Bellucci scored 86 points vs Cassone’s 71. Mattia was extremely aggressive to blast 36 winners.
About the serving games, Bellucci managed to score 3 aces and he was quite steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Mattia Bellucci was quite efficient on serve to win 80% (36/45) of his 1st serve and 53% (18/34) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Bellucci broke Cassone 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Bellucci has an aggregate 5-6 win-loss record in 2023, 5-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kotov | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 13 | 25 |
| Pts | 57-26 | 86-71 |
| Total Points | 83 | 157 |
| Winners | 20 | 36 |
| %Winners | 35% | 42% |
Both Kotov and Bellucci played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Mattia Bellucci surrendered 1 set while Pavel Kotov hasn’t lost a set so far. Kotov has played 1 set(s) less than Bellucci (2 vs 3). Therefore, Kotov played 12 games less than Bellucci. The Russian scored 20 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Mattia recorded 36 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kotov | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 3 |
| 1st in | 25/31 | 45/79 |
| %1st in | 81% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 20/25 | 36/45 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 5/6 | 18/34 |
| %2nd pts | 83% | 53% |
Kotov fired 1 ace . Bellucci also fired 3 aces . Kotov won 80% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 83% of the points. On the other side, Bellucci won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kotov | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 3 |
| Converted | 6/11 | 3/4 |
| % Converted | 55% | 75% |
| Conceded | 0 | 2 |
| Saved | 0 | 1 |
| % Saved | 0% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
The Russian broke his opponent 6 times with a 55% conversion rate. Kotov had a solid display on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 0 break points. The Italian broke his opponent 3 times with a 75% conversion rate. Bellucci conceded his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Kotov | |||
| Q1 Lawson |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 13 | 13 | |
| pts | 57-26 | 57-26 | |
| Total points | 83 | 83 | |
| Winners | 20 | 20 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 25/31 | 25/31 | |
| % 1st in | 81% | 81% | |
| 1st pts | 20/25 | 20/25 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/6 | 5/6 | |
| % 2nd pts | 83% | 83% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/11 | 6/11 | |
| Converted % | 55% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Bellucci | |||
| Q1 Cassone |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 3-6 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 25 | |
| pts | 86-71 | 86-71 | |
| Total points | 157 | 157 | |
| Winners | 36 | 36 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 45/79 | 45/79 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 36/45 | 36/45 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/34 | 18/34 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 3/4 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 75% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
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