Daria Kasatkina and Varvara Gracheva will square off in the 3rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 8:00 pm on STADIUM 2. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daria Kasatkina who should win in 3 sets.
Daria Kasatkina -> 1.52
Varvara Gracheva -> 2.54
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Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Varvara Gracheva
This will be the 3rd time that Daria Kasatkina and Varvara Gracheva face off. The head to head is 1-1 for Kasatkina and Gracheva (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Gracheva won 6-1 6-1 in the 1st round in at the Australian Open back in January 2023.
Highlights Varvara Gracheva vs Daria Kasatkina – Australian Open 18-January-2023
Daria Kasatkina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33-19 | 17-13 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-14 | 7-8 | 5-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8 (career-high), the Russian got to the 3rd round after defeating Tatjana Maria 6-2 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Darya had a good straight sets win against Maria (6-2 6-1). During the match, Kasatkina scored 57 points vs Maria’s 37. The Russian was quite aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Talking about the service games, Kasatkina scored just 1 ace throughout the encounter and she committed only 1 double fault. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 81% of her first serves in, winning 57% (20/35) of the points behind her 1st serve and 75% (6/8) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Maria 7 times after converting 54% of her break points (7/13).
Kasatkina has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (307-173). 5-6 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Kasatkina has a compiled 134-97 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
The Russian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Adelaide.
The Russian has a composed 5-6 win-loss record in 2023, 5-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Varvara Gracheva
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-23 | 8-11 | 15-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-30 | 23-18 | 7-6 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-32 | 7-11 | 12-14 | 10-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 27-31 | 11-10 | 7-10 | 9-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 10-14 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 66, Gracheva got to the 3rd round after defeating Petra Marcinko 7-62 6-4, Anna-Lena Friedsam 7-65 6-76 6-4, Ysaline Bonaventure 6-2 6-2 and Petra Martic 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Varvara had a good straight sets win against Martic (6-3 6-2). During the match Gracheva scored 62 points vs Martic’s 47. The Russian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 30 winners.
About the serving games, Gracheva scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Varvara Gracheva conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 2 break points. Furthermore, Gracheva put 72% of her first serves in, winning 68% (30/44) of the points behind her 1st serve and 71% (12/17) on the 2nd serve. Gracheva broke Martic 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
The Russian’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Austin.
The Russian has a composed 15-9 win-loss record in 2023, 13-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Gracheva has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kasatkina | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 15 | 92 |
| Pts | 57-37 | 326-284 |
| Total Points | 94 | 610 |
| Winners | 20 | 123 |
| %Winners | 35% | 38% |
Kasatkina played 1 match while Gracheva competed in 4 matches. Gracheva started her run from the qualifications while Kasatkina had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Varvara Gracheva surrendered 1 set while Daria Kasatkina hasn’t dropped a set so far. Kasatkina has played 7 set(s) less than Gracheva (2 vs 9). Therefore, Kasatkina played 77 games less than Gracheva. Kasatkina scored 20 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Varvara recorded 123 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kasatkina | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 1.8 |
| 1st in | 35/43 | 200/305 |
| %1st in | 81% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 20/35 | 123/200 |
| %1st pts | 57% | 62% |
| 2nd pts | 6/8 | 63/105 |
| %2nd pts | 75% | 60% |
Kasatkina blasted 1 ace . Gracheva also managed to score 7 aces (1.8 per match). Kasatkina won 57% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 75% of the points. On the other side, Gracheva won 62% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kasatkina | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 19 |
| Converted | 7/13 | 19/41 |
| % Converted | 54% | 46% |
| Conceded | 7 | 24 |
| Saved | 5 | 14 |
| % Saved | 71% | 58% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 10 |
The Russian broke her opponent 7 times with a 54% conversion rate. The Russian dropped her serve twice and she saved 71% of the break points that she conceded. Gracheva broke her opponents 19 times with a 46% conversion rate. Varvara conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded.
| Kasatkina | |||
| R2 Maria | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 15 | |
| pts | 57-37 | 57-37 | |
| Total points | 94 | 94 | |
| Winners | 20 | 20 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 35/43 | 35/43 | |
| % 1st in | 81% | 81% | |
| 1st pts | 20/35 | 20/35 | |
| % 1st pts | 57% | 57% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/8 | 6/8 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 75% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 7 | 7 | |
| Converted | 7/13 | 7/13 | |
| Converted % | 54% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Gracheva | ||||||
| Q1 Marcinko | Q3 Friedsam | R1 Bonaventure | R2 Martic | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-62 6-4 | 7-65 6-76 6-4 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 36 | 16 | 17 | 92 | |
| pts | 78-69 | 128-128 | 58-40 | 62-47 | 326-284 | |
| Total points | 147 | 256 | 98 | 109 | 610 | |
| Winners | 28 | 40 | 25 | 30 | 123 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 31% | 43% | 48% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 45/73 | 79/120 | 32/51 | 44/61 | 200/305 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 66% | 63% | 72% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 28/45 | 40/79 | 25/32 | 30/44 | 123/200 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 51% | 78% | 68% | 62% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/28 | 26/41 | 11/19 | 12/17 | 63/105 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 63% | 58% | 71% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 7/14 | 4/7 | 3/7 | 19/41 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 50% | 57% | 43% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 24 | |
| Saved | 4/8 | 6/12 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 300% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Karolina PliskovaPliskova – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (6-1 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (3-6 6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (3-6 6-4 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Rebecca PetersonPeterson – Jil TeichmannTeichmann (3-6 6-3 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Petra KvitovaKvitova – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (0-6 6-0 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Cori GauffGauff – Linda NoskovaNoskova (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Bernarda PeraPera – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Caroline GarciaGarcia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Martina TrevisanTrevisan – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (1-4) – H2H and prediction
- Varvara GrachevaGracheva – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Xin Yu WangYu Wang (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Petra KvitovaKvitova – Jessica PegulaPegula (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Rebecca PetersonPeterson (0-1) – H2H and prediction