Marta Kostyuk and Varvara Gracheva will play each other in the final of the ATX Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 2:00 pm on Stadium Court. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Marta Kostyuk who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Marta Kostyuk is the pick to win this match.
Marta Kostyuk -> 1.4
Varvara Gracheva -> 2.96
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Prediction and head to head Marta Kostyuk vs. Varvara Gracheva
This will be the 6th time that Marta Kostyuk and Varvara Gracheva fight against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Kostyuk (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Gracheva won 6-7(4) 6-3 6-4 in the quarter in Chicago back in 2021.
Marta Kostyuk
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21-17 | 14-10 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 34-22 | 24-14 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 26-22 | 22-16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 28-20 | 18-11 | 3-4 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-17 | 8-9 | 10-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 52, the Ukrainian reached the final after defeating Dalma Galfi 7-5 6-1, Madison Brengle 6-3 3-6 6-0, Anna-Lena Friedsam 7-66 6-2 and Danielle Rose Collins 6-4 6-3.
In the semifinal, Kostyuk had a good straight sets win against Collins (6-4 6-3). During the match, Kostyuk scored 63 points vs Collins’s 57. The Ukrainian was extremely aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Kostyuk managed to score 4 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Marta Kostyuk lost the serve once and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 57% of her first serves in, winning 64% (23/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 59% (16/27) on the 2nd serve. Marta broke Collins 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Marta has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Kostyuk has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 65% of her matches (172-92). 14-6 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Kostyuk has a composed83-44 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
Kostyuk’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Austin.
The Ukrainian has a compiled 14-6 win-loss record in 2023, 14-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Austin
Kostyuk has never competed in this tournament before.
Varvara Gracheva
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-22 | 12-8 | 9-8 | 1-3 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-28 | 13-15 | 15-10 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-30 | 23-18 | 7-6 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-32 | 7-11 | 12-14 | 10-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 27-31 | 11-10 | 7-10 | 9-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 88, Gracheva got to the final after defeating Magda Linette 6-3 4-6 6-4, Anna Blinkova 6-3 6-75 6-1, Sloane Stephens 7-64 6-3 and Katie Volynets 6-4 5-7 6-4.
In the semifinal, Gracheva defeated Volynets (6-4 5-7 6-4). During the match Gracheva scored 101 points vs Volynets’s 94. Varvara was extremely aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about serving, Gracheva was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 3 double faults. Varvara Gracheva lost the serve 8 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Gracheva put 63% of her first serves in, winning 64% (39/61) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (12/36) on the 2nd serve. Gracheva broke Volynets 9 times after converting 69% of her break points (9/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Gracheva has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
The Russian’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Austin.
Gracheva has an aggregate 11-8 win-loss record in 2023, 9-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kostyuk | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 83 | 112 |
| Pts | 305-258 | 394-346 |
| Total Points | 563 | 740 |
| Winners | 100 | 150 |
| %Winners | 33% | 38% |
Both Kostyuk and Gracheva played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Marta Kostyuk dropped 1 set, while Varvara Gracheva conceded 3 sets. Kostyuk has played 2 set(s) less than Gracheva (9 vs 11). Therefore, Kostyuk played 29 games less than Gracheva. The Ukrainian scored 100 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Gracheva managed to score 150 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kostyuk | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 151/262 | 221/363 |
| %1st in | 58% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 100/151 | 150/221 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 56/111 | 61/142 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 43% |
Kostyuk recorded 8 aces (2 per match). Gracheva blasted 10 aces (2.5 per match). Kostyuk won 66% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Gracheva won 68% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kostyuk | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 21 | 27 |
| Converted | 21/47 | 27/46 |
| % Converted | 45% | 59% |
| Conceded | 17 | 41 |
| Saved | 7 | 22 |
| % Saved | 41% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 19 |
Kostyuk broke her opponents 21 times with a 45% conversion rate. Marta conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 41% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 27 times with a 59% conversion rate. Varvara conceded her serve 19 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded.
| Kostyuk | ||||||
| R1 Galfi |
R2 Brengle |
1/4 Friedsam |
1/2 Collins |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-1 | 6-3 3-6 6-0 | 7-66 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 83 | |
| pts | 72-55 | 88-73 | 82-73 | 63-57 | 305-258 | |
| Total points | 127 | 161 | 155 | 120 | 563 | |
| Winners | 21 | 31 | 25 | 23 | 100 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 35% | 30% | 37% | 33% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 25 | |
| 1st in | 32/60 | 41/70 | 42/69 | 36/63 | 151/262 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 59% | 61% | 57% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 21/32 | 31/41 | 25/42 | 23/36 | 100/151 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 76% | 60% | 64% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/28 | 12/29 | 12/27 | 16/27 | 56/111 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 41% | 44% | 59% | 50% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 21 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 6/17 | 6/14 | 4/7 | 21/47 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 35% | 43% | 57% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1/4 | 0/4 | 5/6 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 25% | 0% | 83% | 35% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | |
| Gracheva | ||||||
| R1 Linette |
R2 Blinkova |
1/4 Stephens |
1/2 Volynets |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 4-6 6-4 | 6-3 6-75 6-1 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-4 5-7 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 29 | 22 | 32 | 112 | |
| pts | 106-102 | 102-81 | 85-69 | 101-94 | 394-346 | |
| Total points | 208 | 183 | 154 | 195 | 740 | |
| Winners | 39 | 39 | 33 | 39 | 150 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 38% | 39% | 39% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 56/100 | 60/93 | 44/73 | 61/97 | 221/363 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 65% | 60% | 63% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 39/56 | 39/60 | 33/44 | 39/61 | 150/221 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 65% | 75% | 64% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/44 | 17/33 | 13/29 | 12/36 | 61/142 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 52% | 45% | 33% | 43% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 27 | |
| Converted | 6/12 | 7/10 | 5/11 | 9/13 | 27/46 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 70% | 45% | 69% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 14 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 41 | |
| Saved | 10/14 | 3/7 | 3/6 | 6/14 | 22 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 43% | 50% | 43% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWWWLLLLL
WLWWWWWWLW Tennis Scores in Austin
- Pawel CiasCias – Marcin GawronGawron (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Varvara GrachevaGracheva – Marta KostyukKostyuk (2-3) – H2H and prediction
