Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul will clash against each other in the final of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 9:00 pm on ESTADIO. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.81
Tommy Paul -> 2

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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Tommy Paul

This will be the 4^th time that Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul square off. The head to head is 3-0 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, De Minaur won 6-2 4-6 6-4 in the quarter in Eastbourne back in 2022.

Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul – Eastbourne 23-June-2022

Alex De Minaur

Ranked no. 22, the Australian reached the final after defeating Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 6-1 6-2, Jacopo Berrettini 6-1 6-0, Taro Daniel 6-2 6-2 and Holger Rune 3-6 7-5 6-2.

In the semifinal against Rune, The Australian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-5 6-2). During the match, De Minaur scored 109 points vs Rune’s 102. Alex was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Regarding the service games, De Minaur made 3 aces and he was not very solid on his 2nd serve to score 10 double faults. Overall, Alex De Minaur was extremely effective on serve to win 76% (38/50) of his 1st serve and 53% (26/49) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alex broke Rune 3 times after converting 21% of his break points (3/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Australian has conceded 1 set in this event to win 58% of the points he played.

De Minaur has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 63% of his matches (283-165). 8-2 on hard in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, De Minaur has a composed134-70 record in the last 9 years on hard.

The Australian’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Acapulco.

De Minaur has a composed 11-4 win-loss record in 2023, 8-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Acapulco

Tommy Paul

Ranked no. 23, the American reached the final after beating Emilio Gomez 6-1 7-6⁴, Michael Mmoh 6-4 2-2 ret., Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-2 6-2 and Taylor Fritz 6-3 6-7² 7-6².

In the semifinal, The American defeated Fritz (6-3 6-7² 7-6²).During the match Paul scored less points (1) than Fritz. In fact, the world no. 22 won 130 points vs Fritz’s. That means that Paul was more focused during the important points. Tommy was pretty aggressive to blast 64 winners.

About the serving games, Paul fired 7 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve 3 times and he saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 66% of his first serves in, winning 68% (64/94) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (21/49) on the 2nd serve. Paul broke Fritz 4 times after converting 29% of his break points (4/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Paul has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The American’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in at the Australian Open and Acapulco.

The American has a composed 12-3 win-loss record in 2023, 11-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Acapulco

Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2020 and 2022. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	De Minaur	Paul
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	10
Tot Games	73	85
Pts	292-215	320-271
Total Points	507	591
Winners	94	152
%Winners	32%	48%

Both De Minaur and Paul played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alex De Minaur lost 1 set, while Tommy Paul lost 1 set. De Minaur has played 1 set(s) less than Paul (9 vs 10). Therefore, De Minaur played 12 games less than Paul. Alex scored 94 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, Tommy scored 152 winners (48%).

Serve Performance

Serve	De Minaur	Paul
Aces	11	16
Avg per match	2.8	4
1st in	118/237	207/301
%1st in	50%	69%
1st pts	94/118	152/207
%1st pts	80%	73%
2nd pts	65/119	48/94
%2nd pts	55%	51%

De Minaur blasted 11 aces (2.8 per match). Paul managed to score 16 aces (4 per match). De Minaur won 80% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	De Minaur	Paul
Won	18	12
Converted	18/37	12/37
% Converted	49%	32%
Conceded	12	21
Saved	10	17
% Saved	83%	81%
Times Broken	2	4

De Minaur broke his opponents 18 times with a 49% conversion rate. The Australian dropped his serve twice and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 12 times with a 32% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 81% of the break points that he conceded.

De Minaur
	R1 Pacheco Mendez	R2 Berrettini	1/4 Daniel	1/2 Rune	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	6-1 6-0	6-2 6-2	3-6 7-5 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	9
Tot Games	15	13	16	29	73
pts	64-42	56-28	63-43	109-102	292-215
Total points	106	84	106	211	507
Winners	17	18	21	38	94
%Winners	27%	32%	33%	35%	32%
SERVE
Aces	4	3	1	3	11
Double Faults	1	2	3	10	16
1st in	23/39	23/47	22/52	50/99	118/237
% 1st in	59%	49%	42%	51%	50%
1st pts	17/23	18/23	21/22	38/50	94/118
% 1st pts	74%	78%	95%	76%	80%
2nd pts	12/16	14/24	13/30	26/49	65/119
% 2nd pts	75%	58%	43%	53%	55%
Breaks
Won	5	5	5	3	18
Converted	5/9	5/6	5/8	3/14	18/37
Converted %	56%	83%	63%	21%	49%
Conceded	1	1	2	8	12
Saved	1/1	1/1	1/2	7/8	10
Saved %	100%	100%	50%	88%	85%
Times Broken	0	0	1	1	2

Paul
	R1 Gomez	R2 Mmoh	1/4 Mcdonald	1/2 Fritz	Total
Score	6-1 7-64	6-4 2-2 ret.	6-2 6-2	6-3 6-72 7-62
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	9
Tot Games	20	14	16	35	85
pts	81-64	52-45	57-31	130-131	320-271
Total points	145	97	88	261	591
Winners	36	26	26	64	152
%Winners	44%	50%	46%	49%	48%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	3	7	16
Double Faults	1	0	1	5	7
1st in	47/66	33/49	33/43	94/143	207/301
% 1st in	71%	67%	77%	66%	69%
1st pts	36/47	26/33	26/33	64/94	152/207
% 1st pts	77%	79%	79%	68%	73%
2nd pts	11/19	8/16	8/10	21/49	48/94
% 2nd pts	58%	50%	80%	43%	51%
Breaks
Won	3	1	4	4	12
Converted	3/11	1/3	4/9	4/14	12/37
Converted %	27%	33%	44%	29%	32%
Conceded	3	4	1	13	21
Saved	2/3	4/4	1/1	10/13	17
Saved %	67%	100%	100%	77%	86%
Times Broken	1	0	0	3	4

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Tommy PaulPaul – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-3) – H2H and prediction