Holger Rune and Alex De Minaur will face off in the semifinal of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 9:30 pm on ESTADIO. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Holger Rune who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Holger Rune is the pick to win this match.
Holger Rune -> 1.71
Alex De Minaur -> 2.14
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Prediction and head to head Holger Rune vs. Alex De Minaur
This will be the 3rd time that Holger Rune and Alex De Minaur clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Rune (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Rune won 6-2 7-5 in the 1st round in Basel back in 2022.
Highlights Holger Rune vs Alex De Minaur – Basel 26-October-2022
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-9 | 9-5 | 4-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-24 | 21-12 | 11-6 | 10-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, Holger got to the semifinal after defeating Ben Shelton 6-77 6-4 6-2, Nuno Borges 6-0 6-2 and Matteo Berrettini 6-0 1-0 ret..
In the quarter against Berrettini, the Dane had a free pass after Berrettini retired on a 6-0 1-0 . scoreline.
Rune has a solid record in the last 6 years having won 67% of his matches (173-86). 6-2 on hard in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Rune has an overall26-22 record in the last 6 years on hard.
Rune’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Montpellier.
The Dane has a composed 11-4 win-loss record in 2023, 6-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Holger has never competed in this tournament before.
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-8 | 12-5 | 5-2 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, Alex got to the semifinal after defeating Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 6-1 6-2, Jacopo Berrettini 6-1 6-0 and Taro Daniel 6-2 6-2.
In the quarter, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Daniel (6-2 6-2). During the match De Minaur scored 63 points vs Daniel’s 43. De Minaur was quite aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Talking about serving, De Minaur scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 3 double faults. Alex De Minaur lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, De Minaur put 42% of his first serves in, winning 95% (21/22) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (13/30) on the 2nd serve. De Minaur broke Daniel 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alex hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 62% of the points he played.
The Australian has a composed 10-4 win-loss record in 2023, 7-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rune | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 52 | 44 |
| Pts | 183-119 | 183-113 |
| Total Points | 302 | 296 |
| Winners | 73 | 56 |
| %Winners | 40% | 31% |
Both Rune and De Minaur played 3 matches. At the moment, Holger Rune conceded 1 set while Alex De Minaur hasn’t lost a set so far. Rune has played 2 sets more than De Minaur (8 vs 6). Therefore, Rune played 8 games more than De Minaur. Rune scored 73 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, De Minaur recorded 56 winners (31%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rune | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st in | 89/145 | 68/138 |
| %1st in | 61% | 49% |
| 1st pts | 73/89 | 56/68 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 82% |
| 2nd pts | 39/56 | 39/70 |
| %2nd pts | 70% | 56% |
Rune struck 13 aces (4.3 per match). De Minaur bagged 8 aces (2.7 per match). Rune won 82% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 70% of the points. On the other side, De Minaur won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rune | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 15 |
| Converted | 12/22 | 15/23 |
| % Converted | 55% | 65% |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 |
| Saved | 3 | 3 |
| % Saved | 75% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Rune broke his opponents 12 times with a 55% conversion rate. The Dane lost his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Alex broke his opponents 15 times with a 65% conversion rate. De Minaur conceded his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Rune | |||||
| R1 Shelton |
R2 Borges |
1/4 Berrettini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-77 6-4 6-2 | 6-0 6-2 | 6-0 1-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 14 | 7 | 52 | |
| pts | 98-84 | 57-28 | 28-7 | 183-119 | |
| Total points | 182 | 85 | 35 | 302 | |
| Winners | 42 | 21 | 10 | 73 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 37% | 36% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 7 | 1 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 52/86 | 26/41 | 11/18 | 89/145 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 63% | 61% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 42/52 | 21/26 | 10/11 | 73/89 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 81% | 91% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/34 | 9/15 | 6/7 | 39/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 71% | 60% | 86% | 70% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 5/9 | 3/4 | 12/22 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 56% | 75% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 100% | – | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| De Minaur | |||||
| R1 Pacheco Mendez |
R2 Berrettini |
1/4 Daniel |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-1 6-0 | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 13 | 16 | 44 | |
| pts | 64-42 | 56-28 | 63-43 | 183-113 | |
| Total points | 106 | 84 | 106 | 296 | |
| Winners | 17 | 18 | 21 | 56 | |
| %Winners | 27% | 32% | 33% | 31% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 23/39 | 23/47 | 22/52 | 68/138 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 49% | 42% | 49% | |
| 1st pts | 17/23 | 18/23 | 21/22 | 56/68 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 78% | 95% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/16 | 14/24 | 13/30 | 39/70 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 58% | 43% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 5/6 | 5/8 | 15/23 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 83% | 63% | 65% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 50% | 83% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWLLLWWW
LWWLWWWLWW Tennis Scores in Acapulco
- Taylor FritzFritz – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Taro DanielDaniel (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Holger RuneRune – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-0 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Andre Goransson/Ben McLachlanGoransson/Ben McLachlan – Mackenzie McDonald/Ben SheltonMcDonald/Ben Shelton (6-1 6-74 11-9) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Holger RuneRune – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-0 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Taro DanielDaniel (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Tommy PaulPaul – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (3-3) – H2H and prediction
- Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (2-0) – H2H and prediction
