Sebastian Baez and Nicolas Jarry will face off in the quarter of the Rio Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 8:30 pm on QUADRA GUGA KUERTEN. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Baez who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Sebastian Baez is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Baez -> 1.86
Nicolas Jarry -> 1.95

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Prediction and head to head Sebastian Baez vs. Nicolas Jarry

This will be the 2nd time that Sebastian Baez and Nicolas Jarry square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Baez (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Baez won 6-4 6-4 in the semifinal in the Santiago 2 Challenger back in 2021.

Sebastian Baez

Sebastian Baez

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
45
High
18
LLLLLWLLLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 20-27 3-9 17-14 0-3 0-1 0-0
2024 31-28 5-9 26-11 0-5 0-3 0-0
2023 33-27 9-7 22-13 1-5 1-2 0-0
2022 35-32 6-12 27-12 0-6 2-2 0-0
2021 56-16 2-1 52-12 2-2 0-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 35, the Argentine reached the quarter after defeating Thomaz Bellucci 6-3 6-2 and Juan Pablo Varillas 7-5 7-66.

In the 2nd round, Baez had a good straight sets win against Pablo Patino-Samudio (7-5 7-66). During the match, Baez scored 85 points vs Pablo Patino-Samudio’s 72. Sebastian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about the service games, Baez fired 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Sebastian Baez lost the serve 5 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Baez put 74% of his first serves in, winning 56% (33/59) of the points behind his 1st serve and 57% (12/21) on the 2nd serve. Sebastian broke Pablo Patino-Samudio 6 times after converting 75% of his break points (6/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sebastian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

Baez has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 66% of his matches (193-98). 6-1 on clay in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Baez has a composed170-66 win-loss record in the last 8 years on clay.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Cordoba where he defeated Federico Coria in the final 6-1 3-6 6-3.

The Argentine has a compiled 6-4 win-loss record in 2023, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rio de Janeiro

Rio de Janeiro
Baez's Record

Nicolas Jarry

Nicolas Jarry

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
121
High
16
LLLLLLWWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 16-22 2-6 5-12 0-0 9-4 0-0
2024 19-24 8-11 9-9 2-3 0-1 0-0
2023 43-21 14-7 21-8 4-3 4-3 0-0
2022 38-23 8-5 30-16 0-2 0-0 0-0
2021 45-22 13-4 32-17 0-1 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 139, the Chilean got to the quarter after defeating Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-1 6-2, Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-2 6-3, Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-1 and Pedro Martinez Portero 6-2 6-2

.

In the 2nd round, Jarry had a good straight sets win against Martinez Portero (6-2 6-2). During the match Jarry scored 65 points vs Martinez Portero’s 44. The Chilean was very aggressive to blast 20 winners.

Talking about serving, Jarry scored 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Nicolas Jarry was quite effective on serve to win 83% (20/24) of his 1st serve and 64% (16/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Chilean broke Martinez Portero 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Nicolas started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to conquer 62% of the points he played.

The Chilean has an overall 9-3 win-loss record in 2023, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rio de Janeiro

Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2018. See his history.

Rio de Janeiro
Jarry's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

S.Baez
N.Jarry
3h:46
3h:46
Time on court​
4h:56
4h:56
!
2h:11
2h:11
Last match​
1h:31
1h:31
2
2
Match played
!
4
4
42
42
Games Played​
65
65
4
4
Set played​​
8
8
157
157
Total points​
236
236
78.5
78.5
Avg point​
59
59
61
61
Winners
87
87
30.5
30.5
Avg Winners​
21.8
21.8
39%
39%
Ratio winners
37%
37%
-- Serve --
4
4
Aces
31
31
2
2
Avg Aces
7.8
7.8
3
3
Double Faults
5
5
1.5
1.5
Avg Double Faults
1.3
1.3
61/94
61/94
1st won total​
87/105
87/105
65%
65%
1st won %
!
83%
83%
23/38
23/38
2nd won total​
50/68
50/68
!
61%
61%
2nd won %
!
74%
74%
-- Break Points --
9/16
9/16
BP won
15/23
15/23
4.5/8
4.5/8
Avg BP won
3.8/5.8
3.8/5.8
!
56%
56%
Won
!
65%
65%
9
9
Conceded
3
3
4.5
4.5
Avg Conceded
0.8
0.8
5
5
Broken
0
0
2.5
2.5
Avg Broken
!
0
0
4
4
Saved
3
3
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Baez Jarry
Match played 2 4
Tot Set 4 8
Tot Games 42 65
Pts 157-123 236-144
Total Points 280 380
Winners 61 87
%Winners 39% 37%

Baez played 2 matches while Jarry competed in 4 matches. Jarry started his run from the qualifications while Baez had a direct access to the main draw. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Baez has played 4 set(s) less than Jarry (4 vs 8). Therefore, Baez played 23 games less than Jarry. Sebastian scored 61 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The Chilean struck 87 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve Baez Jarry
Aces 4 31
Avg per match 2 7.8
1st in 94/132 105/173
%1st in 71% 61%
1st pts 61/94 87/105
%1st pts 65% 83%
2nd pts 23/38 50/68
%2nd pts 61% 74%

Baez bagged 4 aces (2 per match). Jarry made 31 aces (7.8 per match). Baez won 65% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Jarry won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 74% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Baez Jarry
Won 9 15
Converted 9/16 15/23
% Converted 56% 65%
Conceded 9 3
Saved 4 3
% Saved 44% 100%
Times Broken 5 0

The Argentine broke his opponents 9 times with a 56% conversion rate. Baez lost his serve 5 times and he saved 44% of the break points that he conceded. The Chilean broke his opponents 15 times with a 65% conversion rate. Jarry was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 3 break points.

Baez
R1
Bellucci		 R2
Pablo Patino-Samudio		 Total
Score 6-3 6-2 7-5 7-66
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 17 25 42
pts 72-51 85-72 157-123
Total points 123 157 280
Winners 28 33 61
%Winners 39% 39% 39%
SERVE
Aces 1 3 4
Double Faults 1 2 3
1st in 35/52 59/80 94/132
% 1st in 67% 74% 71%
1st pts 28/35 33/59 61/94
% 1st pts 80% 56% 65%
2nd pts 11/17 12/21 23/38
% 2nd pts 65% 57% 61%
Breaks
Won 3 6 9
Converted 3/8 6/8 9/16
Converted % 38% 75% 56%
Conceded 2 7 9
Saved 2/2 2/7 4
Saved % 100% 29% 65%
Times Broken 0 5 5
Jarry
Q1
Ugo		 Q3
Manuel		 R1
Musetti		 R2
Martinez Portero		 Total
Score 6-1 6-2 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-1 6-2 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 2 8
Tot Games 15 17 17 16 65
pts 55-29 59-35 57-36 65-44 236-144
Total points 84 94 93 109 380
Winners 24 24 19 20 87
%Winners 44% 41% 33% 31% 37%
SERVE
Aces 13 7 4 7 31
Double Faults 1 1 1 2 5
1st in 32/44 27/41 22/39 24/49 105/173
% 1st in 73% 66% 56% 49% 61%
1st pts 24/32 24/27 19/22 20/24 87/105
% 1st pts 75% 89% 86% 83% 83%
2nd pts 9/12 12/14 13/17 16/25 50/68
% 2nd pts 75% 86% 76% 64% 74%
Breaks
Won 4 3 4 4 15
Converted 4/6 3/4 4/5 4/8 15/23
Converted % 67% 75% 80% 50% 65%
Conceded 1 0 0 2 3
Saved 1/1 0/0 0/0 2/2 3
Saved % 100% – – 100% 100%
Times Broken 0 0 0 0 0

Upcoming matches in the draw

Baez
More Stats
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Jarry

Click for FULL STATS