Matteo Arnaldi and Raul Brancaccio will face off in the final of the Tenerife 2 Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 12:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Raul Brancaccio who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Raul Brancaccio is the pick to win this match.
Raul Brancaccio -> 1.88
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.88
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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Raul Brancaccio
This will be the 3rd time that Matteo Arnaldi and Raul Brancaccio face off. The head to head is 1-1 for Arnaldi and Brancaccio (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Brancaccio won 6-1 3-6 7-5 in the quarter in the San Benedetto Challenger back in 2022.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20-16 | 10-8 | 9-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 130 (career-high), the Italian reached the final after defeating Alessandro Giannessi 6-3 6-75 6-3, Shintaro Mochizuki 6-0 2-6 6-3, Oleksii Krutykh 6-4 6-1 and Nicolas Alvarez Varona 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Alvarez Varona (6-3 6-4). During the match, Arnaldi scored 68 points vs Alvarez Varona’s 56. Arnaldi was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Arnaldi scored 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve once and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 58% of his first serves in, winning 82% (31/38) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (12/27) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Alvarez Varona 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has lost 2 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Arnaldi has a solid win-loss record in the last 6 years having won 63% of his matches (143-85). 7-2 on hard in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Arnaldi has an overall43-15 match record in the last 6 years on hard.
Matteo’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Tenerife 2 Challenger.
Arnaldi has an overall 7-3 win-loss record in 2023, 7-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Tenerife 2 Challenger
Matteo has never competed in this tournament before.
Raul Brancaccio
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12-16 | 6-5 | 6-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-32 | 14-7 | 11-19 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-26 | 7-6 | 31-18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 47-26 | 2-1 | 43-21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 11-12 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 7-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 147, Raul got to the final after defeating Nikola Milojevic 0-6 7-5 6-2, Daniel Cox 6-3 6-3, Carlos Taberner 6-3 6-76 6-0 and Lloyd Harris w/o.
In the semifinal, Raul defeated Lloyd (w/o). During the match Brancaccio and Lloyd scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 130 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Raul was not very aggressive do strike just winners.
About the serving games, Brancaccio couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Raul Brancaccio conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of his first serves in, win 0% (/) of the points behind his 1st serve and 0% (/) on the 2nd serve.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Raul has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Noumea Challenger where he defeated Laurent Lokoli in the final 4-6 7-5 6-2.
Brancaccio has an overall 9-2 win-loss record in 2023, 9-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Arnaldi | Brancaccio |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 90 | 72 |
| Pts | 310-252 | 281-245 |
| Total Points | 562 | 526 |
| Winners | 118 | 99 |
| %Winners | 38% | 35% |
Arnaldi played 4 matches while Brancaccio competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Matteo Arnaldi lost 2 sets, while Raul Brancaccio conceded 2 sets. Arnaldi has played 2 sets more than Brancaccio (10 vs 8). Therefore, Arnaldi played 18 games more than Brancaccio. Arnaldi scored 118 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Raul managed to score 99 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Arnaldi | Brancaccio |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 1st in | 169/293 | 169/267 |
| %1st in | 58% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 118/169 | 99/169 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 59% |
| 2nd pts | 76/124 | 52/98 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 53% |
Arnaldi scored 10 aces (2.5 per match). Brancaccio blasted 5 aces (1.7 per match). Arnaldi won 70% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Brancaccio won 59% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Arnaldi | Brancaccio |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 19 |
| Converted | 15/26 | 19/40 |
| % Converted | 58% | 48% |
| Conceded | 18 | 35 |
| Saved | 12 | 24 |
| % Saved | 67% | 69% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 11 |
Arnaldi broke his opponents 15 times with a 58% conversion rate. Arnaldi surrendered his serve 6 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Raul broke his opponents 19 times with a 48% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 11 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.
| Arnaldi | ||||||
| R1 Giannessi |
R2 Mochizuki |
1/4 Krutykh |
1/2 Alvarez |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-75 6-3 | 6-0 2-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-1 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 23 | 17 | 19 | 90 | |
| pts | 108-87 | 75-68 | 59-41 | 68-56 | 310-252 | |
| Total points | 195 | 143 | 100 | 124 | 562 | |
| Winners | 34 | 34 | 19 | 31 | 118 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 45% | 32% | 46% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 52/97 | 51/82 | 28/49 | 38/65 | 169/293 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 62% | 57% | 58% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 34/52 | 34/51 | 19/28 | 31/38 | 118/169 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 67% | 68% | 82% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 34/45 | 15/31 | 15/21 | 12/27 | 76/124 | |
| % 2nd pts | 76% | 48% | 71% | 44% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/4 | 4/7 | 3/7 | 15/26 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 100% | 57% | 43% | 58% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 18 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 4/6 | 0/1 | 5/6 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 67% | 0% | 83% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Brancaccio | ||||||
| R1 Milojevic |
R2 Cox |
1/4 Taberner |
1/2 Lloyd |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 0-6 7-5 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 6-76 6-0 | w/o | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | – | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 18 | 28 | – | 72 | |
| pts | 95-91 | 65-53 | 121-101 | – | 281-245 | |
| Total points | 186 | 118 | 222 | – | 526 | |
| Winners | 33 | 24 | 42 | – | 99 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 37% | 35% | – | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 1 | 2 | – | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 9 | – | 11 | |
| 1st in | 51/93 | 40/58 | 78/116 | – | 169/267 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 69% | 67% | – | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 33/51 | 24/40 | 42/78 | – | 99/169 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 60% | 54% | – | 59% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/42 | 12/18 | 16/38 | – | 52/98 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 67% | 42% | – | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 11 | – | 19 | |
| Converted | 3/11 | 5/6 | 11/23 | – | 19/40 | |
| Converted % | 27% | 83% | 48% | – | 48% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 7 | 19 | – | 35 | |
| Saved | 6/9 | 5/7 | 13/19 | – | 24 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 71% | 68% | – | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 6 | – | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Raul BrancaccioBrancaccio – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
