Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will square off in the final of the Australian Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 7:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.81
Elena Rybakina -> 2
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 4th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina clash against each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 6-3 4-6 6-3 in the 4th round in at the Wimbledon back in 2021.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina – Wimbledon 05-July-2021
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, the Belarussian reached the final after defeating Tereza Martincova 6-1 6-4, Shelby Rogers 6-3 6-1, Elise Mertens 6-2 6-3, Belinda Bencic 7-5 6-2, Donna Vekic 6-3 6-2 and Magda Linette 7-61 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Linette (7-61 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 71 points vs Linette’s 58. The Belarussian was quite aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka recorded 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 60% of her first serves in, winning 70% (26/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 64% (16/25) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Linette 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to win 57% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 66% of her matches (273-140). 10-0 on hard in 2023. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a composed164-76 record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she overcame Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4).
Sabalenka has a compiled 10-0 win-loss record in 2023, 10-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 25, Elena got to the final after defeating Elisabetta Cocciaretto 7-5 6-3, Kaja Juvan 6-2 6-1, Danielle Rose Collins 6-2 5-7 6-2, Iga Swiatek 6-4 6-4, Jelena Ostapenko 6-2 6-4 and Victoria Azarenka 7-64 6-3.
In the semifinal, Elena had a good straight sets win against Azarenka (7-64 6-3). During the match Rybakina scored 78 points vs Azarenka’s 62. The Kazakhstani was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
About the serving games, Rybakina struck 9 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Elena Rybakina lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 58% of her first serves in, winning 76% (28/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 41% (11/27) on the 2nd serve. Elena broke Azarenka 5 times after converting 45% of her break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rybakina has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Elena’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in at the Australian Open .
Rybakina has an aggregate 7-2 win-loss record in 2023, 7-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2020. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 108 | 124 |
| Pts | 414-307 | 420-322 |
| Total Points | 721 | 742 |
| Winners | 153 | 156 |
| %Winners | 37% | 37% |
Both Sabalenka and Rybakina played 6 matches. At the moment, Elena Rybakina conceded 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Rybakina (12 vs 13). Therefore, Sabalenka played 16 games less than Rybakina. The Belarussian scored 153 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Rybakina blasted 156 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 29 | 44 |
| Avg per match | 4.8 | 7.3 |
| 1st in | 203/348 | 196/356 |
| %1st in | 58% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 153/203 | 156/196 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 79/145 | 85/160 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 53% |
Sabalenka struck 29 aces (4.8 per match). Rybakina fired 44 aces (7.3 per match). Sabalenka won 75% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 80% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 24 | 26 |
| Converted | 24/49 | 26/49 |
| % Converted | 49% | 53% |
| Conceded | 31 | 25 |
| Saved | 25 | 15 |
| % Saved | 81% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 10 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 24 times with a 49% conversion rate. Aryna dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 81% of the break points that she conceded. Elena broke her opponents 26 times with a 53% conversion rate. Elena conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||||
| R1 Martincova |
R2 Rogers |
R3 Mertens |
R4 Bencic |
1/4 Vekic |
1/2 Linette |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 6-3 6-1 | 6-2 6-3 | 7-5 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 7-61 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 16 | 17 | 20 | 17 | 21 | 108 | |
| pts | 60-40 | 75-52 | 63-43 | 64-47 | 81-67 | 71-58 | 414-307 | |
| Total points | 100 | 127 | 106 | 111 | 148 | 129 | 721 | |
| Winners | 27 | 23 | 21 | 25 | 31 | 26 | 153 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 31% | 33% | 39% | 38% | 37% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 29 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 22 | |
| 1st in | 31/55 | 31/49 | 28/50 | 32/54 | 44/78 | 37/62 | 203/348 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 63% | 56% | 59% | 56% | 60% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 27/31 | 23/31 | 21/28 | 25/32 | 31/44 | 26/37 | 153/203 | |
| % 1st pts | 87% | 74% | 75% | 78% | 70% | 70% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/24 | 11/18 | 14/22 | 14/22 | 12/34 | 16/25 | 79/145 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 61% | 64% | 64% | 35% | 64% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 5/11 | 4/7 | 4/5 | 5/13 | 3/7 | 24/49 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 45% | 57% | 80% | 38% | 43% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 31 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 3/4 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 12/14 | 3/4 | 25 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 67% | 0% | 86% | 75% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Rybakina | ||||||||
| R1 Cocciaretto |
R2 Juvan |
R3 Collins |
R4 Swiatek |
1/4 Ostapenko |
1/2 Azarenka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 | 6-2 6-1 | 6-2 5-7 6-2 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-2 6-4 | 7-64 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 15 | 28 | 20 | 18 | 22 | 124 | |
| pts | 65-50 | 56-32 | 95-75 | 59-51 | 67-52 | 78-62 | 420-322 | |
| Total points | 115 | 88 | 170 | 110 | 119 | 140 | 742 | |
| Winners | 17 | 21 | 37 | 24 | 29 | 28 | 156 | |
| %Winners | 26% | 38% | 39% | 41% | 43% | 36% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 44 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 22/55 | 24/43 | 45/76 | 30/54 | 38/64 | 37/64 | 196/356 | |
| % 1st in | 40% | 56% | 59% | 56% | 59% | 58% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 17/22 | 21/24 | 37/45 | 24/30 | 29/38 | 28/37 | 156/196 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 88% | 82% | 80% | 76% | 76% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/33 | 11/19 | 20/31 | 11/24 | 13/26 | 11/27 | 85/160 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 58% | 65% | 46% | 50% | 41% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 26 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 4/8 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 5/11 | 26/49 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 45% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 25 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 25% | – | 0% | 50% | 88% | 63% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-3) – H2H and prediction
