Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Australian Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 7:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.51
Victoria Azarenka -> 2.56
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Prediction and head to head Victoria Azarenka vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 2nd time that Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Rybakina (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Rybakina won 6-3 6-4 in the 3rd round in Indian Wells back in 2022.
Victoria Azarenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17-8 | 14-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 23-19 | 17-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 24-13 | 18-9 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 28-9 | 18-6 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-6 | 11-3 | 4-2 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 24, Azarenka got to the semifinal after defeating Sofia Kenin 6-4 7-63, Nadia Podoroska 6-1 6-0, Madison Keys 1-6 6-2 6-1, Lin Zhu 4-6 6-1 6-4 and Jessica Pegula 6-4 6-1.
In the quarter, Victoria had a good straight sets win against Pegula (6-4 6-1). During the match, Azarenka scored 74 points vs Pegula’s 54. Victoria was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about the service games, Azarenka wasn’t able to score even 1 ace in the course of the match and she committed only 2 double faults. Victoria Azarenka lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Azarenka put 60% of her first serves in, winning 68% (25/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (13/25) on the 2nd serve. Victoria broke Pegula 5 times after converting 38% of her break points (5/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has conceded 2 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Azarenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 69% of her matches (196-87). 7-2 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Azarenka has a compiled 133-54 record in the last years on hard.
Azarenka has an overall 7-2 win-loss record in 2023, 7-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30-5 | 22-4 | 8-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 25, the Kazakhstani reached the semifinal after defeating Elisabetta Cocciaretto 7-5 6-3, Kaja Juvan 6-2 6-1, Danielle Rose Collins 6-2 5-7 6-2, Iga Swiatek 6-4 6-4 and Jelena Ostapenko 6-2 6-4.
In the quarter, Elena had a good straight sets win against Ostapenko (6-2 6-4). During the match Rybakina scored 67 points vs Ostapenko’s 52. The Kazakhstani was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.
About the serving games, Rybakina blasted 11 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Elena Rybakina lost the serve once and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 59% of her first serves in, winning 76% (29/38) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (13/26) on the 2nd serve. The Kazakhstani broke Ostapenko 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Kazakhstani has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Rybakina has an aggregate 6-2 win-loss record in 2023, 6-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2020. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Azarenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 102 | 102 |
| Pts | 379-307 | 342-260 |
| Total Points | 686 | 602 |
| Winners | 153 | 128 |
| %Winners | 40% | 37% |
Both Azarenka and Rybakina played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Victoria Azarenka dropped 2 sets, while Elena Rybakina conceded 1 set. Azarenka has played 1 set more than Rybakina (12 vs 11). However, it is interesting to notice that they played the same amount of games (102). The Belarussian scored 153 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Elena bagged 128 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Azarenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 35 |
| Avg per match | 2.4 | 7 |
| 1st in | 214/335 | 159/292 |
| %1st in | 64% | 54% |
| 1st pts | 153/214 | 128/159 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 81% |
| 2nd pts | 56/121 | 74/133 |
| %2nd pts | 46% | 56% |
Azarenka bagged 12 aces (2.4 per match). Rybakina managed to score 35 aces (7 per match). Azarenka won 71% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 81% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Azarenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 26 | 21 |
| Converted | 26/57 | 21/38 |
| % Converted | 46% | 55% |
| Conceded | 32 | 17 |
| Saved | 20 | 10 |
| % Saved | 63% | 59% |
| Times Broken | 12 | 7 |
Victoria broke her opponents 26 times with a 46% conversion rate. The Belarussian surrendered her serve 12 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded. The Kazakhstani broke her opponents 21 times with a 55% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded.
| Azarenka | |||||||
| R1 Kenin |
R2 Podoroska |
R3 Keys |
R4 Zhu |
1/4 Pegula |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-63 | 6-1 6-0 | 1-6 6-2 6-1 | 4-6 6-1 6-4 | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 13 | 22 | 27 | 17 | 102 | |
| pts | 82-71 | 50-22 | 70-61 | 103-99 | 74-54 | 379-307 | |
| Total points | 153 | 72 | 131 | 202 | 128 | 686 | |
| Winners | 39 | 21 | 23 | 45 | 25 | 153 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 42% | 33% | 44% | 34% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 52/79 | 27/34 | 34/58 | 64/102 | 37/62 | 214/335 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 79% | 59% | 63% | 60% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 39/52 | 21/27 | 23/34 | 45/64 | 25/37 | 153/214 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 78% | 68% | 70% | 68% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/27 | 4/7 | 11/24 | 12/38 | 13/25 | 56/121 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 57% | 46% | 32% | 52% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 26 | |
| Converted | 2/10 | 6/7 | 6/12 | 7/15 | 5/13 | 26/57 | |
| Converted % | 20% | 86% | 50% | 47% | 38% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 32 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 0/0 | 3/7 | 9/14 | 2/4 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 86% | – | 43% | 64% | 50% | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | |
| Rybakina | |||||||
| R1 Cocciaretto |
R2 Juvan |
R3 Collins |
R4 Swiatek |
1/4 Ostapenko |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 | 6-2 6-1 | 6-2 5-7 6-2 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 15 | 28 | 20 | 18 | 102 | |
| pts | 65-50 | 56-32 | 95-75 | 59-51 | 67-52 | 342-260 | |
| Total points | 115 | 88 | 170 | 110 | 119 | 602 | |
| Winners | 17 | 21 | 37 | 24 | 29 | 128 | |
| %Winners | 26% | 38% | 39% | 41% | 43% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 35 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 22/55 | 24/43 | 45/76 | 30/54 | 38/64 | 159/292 | |
| % 1st in | 40% | 56% | 59% | 56% | 59% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 17/22 | 21/24 | 37/45 | 24/30 | 29/38 | 128/159 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 88% | 82% | 80% | 76% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/33 | 11/19 | 20/31 | 11/24 | 13/26 | 74/133 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 58% | 65% | 46% | 50% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 4/8 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 21/38 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 7/8 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 25% | – | 0% | 50% | 88% | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWLWWWW
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- Magda LinetteLinette – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
