Jelena Ostapenko and Elena Rybakina will fight against each other in the quarter of the Australian Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 12:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.53
Jelena Ostapenko -> 2.51

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Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Elena Rybakina

This will be the 3rd time that Jelena Ostapenko and Elena Rybakina square off. The head to head is 2-0 for Ostapenko (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Ostapenko won 6-4 6-1 in the semifinal in Eastbourne back in 2021.

Jelena Ostapenko

Jelena Ostapenko

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
23
High
5
LLLLWLLWLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 18-20 8-14 9-4 0-0 1-2 0-0
2024 31-19 14-10 8-6 4-0 5-3 0-0
2023 37-22 21-15 7-4 1-1 8-2 0-0
2022 33-19 19-10 3-3 3-3 8-3 0-0
2021 32-19 12-9 5-4 7-4 8-2 0-0

Ranked no. 17, the Latvian reached the quarter after beating Dayana Yastremska 6-4 6-2, Anna Bondar 7-65 5-7 6-0, Kateryna Baindl 6-3 6-0 and Cori Gauff 7-5 6-3.

In the 4th round, Ostapenko had a good straight sets win against Gauff (7-5 6-3). During the match, Ostapenko scored 77 points vs Gauff’s 66. Ostapenko was quite aggressive to blast 39 winners.

Regarding the service games, Ostapenko struck 4 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve once and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 65% of her first serves in, winning 80% (39/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (11/26) on the 2nd serve. Jelena was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Gauff 3 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ostapenko has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 56% of the points she played.

Ostapenko has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 61% of her matches (293-187). 5-2 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Ostapenko has an aggregate 104-87 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Jelena has a compiled 5-2 win-loss record in 2023, 5-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Australian Open
Ostapenko's Record

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
5
High
3
WWWWWWWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 59-19 37-13 9-3 8-0 5-3 0-0
2024 43-11 23-5 12-2 2-2 6-2 0-0
2023 47-15 31-11 11-2 0-0 5-2 0-0
2022 40-21 18-12 9-5 5-2 8-2 0-0
2021 33-23 18-14 6-4 2-2 7-3 0-0

Ranked no. 25, the Kazakhstani reached the quarter after defeating Elisabetta Cocciaretto 7-5 6-3, Kaja Juvan 6-2 6-1, Danielle Rose Collins 6-2 5-7 6-2 and Iga Swiatek 6-4 6-4.

In the 4th round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Swiatek (6-4 6-4). During the match Rybakina scored 59 points vs Swiatek’s 51. Rybakina was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about serving, Rybakina managed to score 6 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Elena Rybakina lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 56% of her first serves in, winning 80% (24/30) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (11/24) on the 2nd serve. Rybakina broke Swiatek 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Kazakhstani has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Elena has an overall 5-2 win-loss record in 2023, 5-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2020. See her history.

Australian Open
Rybakina's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Ostapenko
E.Rybakina
6h:27
6h:27
Time on court​
5h:55
5h:55
1h:33
1h:33
Last match​
1h:29
1h:29
4
4
Match played
4
4
85
85
Games Played​
84
84
9
9
Set played​​
9
9
310
310
Total points​
275
275
77.5
77.5
Avg point​
68.8
68.8
127
127
Winners
99
99
31.8
31.8
Avg Winners​
24.8
24.8
41%
41%
Ratio winners
36%
36%
-- Serve --
14
14
Aces
24
24
3.5
3.5
Avg Aces
6
6
15
15
Double Faults
7
7
3.8
3.8
Avg Double Faults
1.8
1.8
127/172
127/172
1st won total​
99/121
99/121
!
74%
74%
1st won %
!
82%
82%
51/107
51/107
2nd won total​
61/107
61/107
48%
48%
2nd won %
57%
57%
-- Break Points --
18/24
18/24
BP won
17/32
17/32
4.5/6
4.5/6
Avg BP won
4.3/8
4.3/8
!
75%
75%
Won
!
53%
53%
21
21
Conceded
9
9
5.3
5.3
Avg Conceded
2.3
2.3
7
7
Broken
6
6
1.8
1.8
Avg Broken
1.5
1.5
14
14
Saved
3
3

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Ostapenko Rybakina
Match played 4 4
Tot Set 9 9
Tot Games 85 84
Pts 310-245 275-208
Total Points 555 483
Winners 127 99
%Winners 41% 36%

Both Ostapenko and Rybakina played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jelena Ostapenko surrendered 1 set, while Elena Rybakina conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Ostapenko and Rybakina have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Ostapenko played 1 game more than Rybakina. The Latvian scored 127 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani blasted 99 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve Ostapenko Rybakina
Aces 14 24
Avg per match 3.5 6
1st in 172/279 121/228
%1st in 62% 53%
1st pts 127/172 99/121
%1st pts 74% 82%
2nd pts 51/107 61/107
%2nd pts 48% 57%

Ostapenko scored 14 aces (3.5 per match). Rybakina bagged 24 aces (6 per match). Ostapenko won 74% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 82% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Ostapenko Rybakina
Won 18 17
Converted 18/24 17/32
% Converted 75% 53%
Conceded 21 9
Saved 14 3
% Saved 67% 33%
Times Broken 7 6

The Latvian broke her opponents 18 times with a 75% conversion rate. The Latvian lost her serve 7 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Elena broke her opponents 17 times with a 53% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 33% of the break points that she conceded.

Ostapenko
R1
Yastremska
R2
Bondar
R3
Kozlova
R4
Gauff
Total
Score 6-4 6-2 7-65 5-7 6-0 6-3 6-0 7-5 6-3
Tot Set 2 3 2 2 9
Tot Games 18 31 15 21 85
pts 63-44 106-94 64-41 77-66 310-245
Total points 107 200 105 143 555
Winners 30 35 23 39 127
%Winners 48% 33% 36% 51% 41%
SERVE
Aces 4 4 2 4 14
Double Faults 0 6 6 3 15
1st in 38/52 59/104 26/48 49/75 172/279
% 1st in 73% 57% 54% 65% 62%
1st pts 30/38 35/59 23/26 39/49 127/172
% 1st pts 79% 59% 88% 80% 74%
2nd pts 8/14 23/45 9/22 11/26 51/107
% 2nd pts 57% 51% 41% 42% 48%
Breaks
Won 3 7 5 3 18
Converted 3/3 7/10 5/8 3/3 18/24
Converted % 100% 70% 63% 100% 75%
Conceded 1 11 1 8 21
Saved 1/1 6/11 0/1 7/8 14
Saved % 100% 55% 0% 88% 61%
Times Broken 0 5 1 1 7
Rybakina
R1
Cocciaretto
R2
Juvan
R3
Collins
R4
Swiatek
Total
Score 7-5 6-3 6-2 6-1 6-2 5-7 6-2 6-4 6-4
Tot Set 2 2 3 2 9
Tot Games 21 15 28 20 84
pts 65-50 56-32 95-75 59-51 275-208
Total points 115 88 170 110 483
Winners 17 21 37 24 99
%Winners 26% 38% 39% 41% 36%
SERVE
Aces 5 5 8 6 24
Double Faults 4 1 1 1 7
1st in 22/55 24/43 45/76 30/54 121/228
% 1st in 40% 56% 59% 56% 53%
1st pts 17/22 21/24 37/45 24/30 99/121
% 1st pts 77% 88% 82% 80% 82%
2nd pts 19/33 11/19 20/31 11/24 61/107
% 2nd pts 58% 58% 65% 46% 57%
Breaks
Won 5 4 4 4 17
Converted 5/12 4/8 4/6 4/6 17/32
Converted % 42% 50% 67% 67% 53%
Conceded 4 0 1 4 9
Saved 1/4 0/0 0/1 2/4 3
Saved % 25% 0% 50% 19%
Times Broken 3 0 1 2 6

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

Upcoming matches in the draw