Jelena Ostapenko and Elena Rybakina will fight against each other in the quarter of the Australian Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 12:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.53
Jelena Ostapenko -> 2.51
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Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 3rd time that Jelena Ostapenko and Elena Rybakina square off. The head to head is 2-0 for Ostapenko (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Ostapenko won 6-4 6-1 in the semifinal in Eastbourne back in 2021.
Jelena Ostapenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-20 | 8-14 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, the Latvian reached the quarter after beating Dayana Yastremska 6-4 6-2, Anna Bondar 7-65 5-7 6-0, Kateryna Baindl 6-3 6-0 and Cori Gauff 7-5 6-3.
In the 4th round, Ostapenko had a good straight sets win against Gauff (7-5 6-3). During the match, Ostapenko scored 77 points vs Gauff’s 66. Ostapenko was quite aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ostapenko struck 4 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve once and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 65% of her first serves in, winning 80% (39/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (11/26) on the 2nd serve. Jelena was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Gauff 3 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ostapenko has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 56% of the points she played.
Ostapenko has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 61% of her matches (293-187). 5-2 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Ostapenko has an aggregate 104-87 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Jelena has a compiled 5-2 win-loss record in 2023, 5-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59-19 | 37-13 | 9-3 | 8-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 25, the Kazakhstani reached the quarter after defeating Elisabetta Cocciaretto 7-5 6-3, Kaja Juvan 6-2 6-1, Danielle Rose Collins 6-2 5-7 6-2 and Iga Swiatek 6-4 6-4.
In the 4th round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Swiatek (6-4 6-4). During the match Rybakina scored 59 points vs Swiatek’s 51. Rybakina was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about serving, Rybakina managed to score 6 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Elena Rybakina lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 56% of her first serves in, winning 80% (24/30) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (11/24) on the 2nd serve. Rybakina broke Swiatek 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Kazakhstani has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Elena has an overall 5-2 win-loss record in 2023, 5-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2020. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ostapenko | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 85 | 84 |
| Pts | 310-245 | 275-208 |
| Total Points | 555 | 483 |
| Winners | 127 | 99 |
| %Winners | 41% | 36% |
Both Ostapenko and Rybakina played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jelena Ostapenko surrendered 1 set, while Elena Rybakina conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Ostapenko and Rybakina have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Ostapenko played 1 game more than Rybakina. The Latvian scored 127 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani blasted 99 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ostapenko | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 24 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 6 |
| 1st in | 172/279 | 121/228 |
| %1st in | 62% | 53% |
| 1st pts | 127/172 | 99/121 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 82% |
| 2nd pts | 51/107 | 61/107 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 57% |
Ostapenko scored 14 aces (3.5 per match). Rybakina bagged 24 aces (6 per match). Ostapenko won 74% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 82% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ostapenko | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 18 | 17 |
| Converted | 18/24 | 17/32 |
| % Converted | 75% | 53% |
| Conceded | 21 | 9 |
| Saved | 14 | 3 |
| % Saved | 67% | 33% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 6 |
The Latvian broke her opponents 18 times with a 75% conversion rate. The Latvian lost her serve 7 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Elena broke her opponents 17 times with a 53% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 33% of the break points that she conceded.
| Ostapenko | ||||||
| R1 Yastremska | R2 Bondar | R3 Kozlova | R4 Gauff | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 7-65 5-7 6-0 | 6-3 6-0 | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 31 | 15 | 21 | 85 | |
| pts | 63-44 | 106-94 | 64-41 | 77-66 | 310-245 | |
| Total points | 107 | 200 | 105 | 143 | 555 | |
| Winners | 30 | 35 | 23 | 39 | 127 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 33% | 36% | 51% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 38/52 | 59/104 | 26/48 | 49/75 | 172/279 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 57% | 54% | 65% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 30/38 | 35/59 | 23/26 | 39/49 | 127/172 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 59% | 88% | 80% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/14 | 23/45 | 9/22 | 11/26 | 51/107 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 51% | 41% | 42% | 48% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 18 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 7/10 | 5/8 | 3/3 | 18/24 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 70% | 63% | 100% | 75% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 21 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 6/11 | 0/1 | 7/8 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 55% | 0% | 88% | 61% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Rybakina | ||||||
| R1 Cocciaretto | R2 Juvan | R3 Collins | R4 Swiatek | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 | 6-2 6-1 | 6-2 5-7 6-2 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 15 | 28 | 20 | 84 | |
| pts | 65-50 | 56-32 | 95-75 | 59-51 | 275-208 | |
| Total points | 115 | 88 | 170 | 110 | 483 | |
| Winners | 17 | 21 | 37 | 24 | 99 | |
| %Winners | 26% | 38% | 39% | 41% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 22/55 | 24/43 | 45/76 | 30/54 | 121/228 | |
| % 1st in | 40% | 56% | 59% | 56% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 17/22 | 21/24 | 37/45 | 24/30 | 99/121 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 88% | 82% | 80% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/33 | 11/19 | 20/31 | 11/24 | 61/107 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 58% | 65% | 46% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 4/8 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 17/32 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 25% | – | 0% | 50% | 19% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
Tennis Scores – Australian Open
- Franco AgamenoneAgamenone – Laslo Urrutia FuentesUrrutia Fuentes (1-6 7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina PliskovaPliskova – Magda LinetteLinette (7-2) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Donna VekicVekic (1-5) – H2H and prediction