Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens will square off in the 3rd round of the Australian Open for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 4:00 pm on Margaret Court Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.285
Elise Mertens -> 3.64
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens
This will be the 9th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens square off. The head to head is 6-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 6-4 6-1 in the 4th round in at the U.S. Open back in 2021.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens – U.S. Open 05-September-2021
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, the Belarussian reached the 3rd round after beating Tereza Martincova 6-1 6-4 and Shelby Rogers 6-3 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Rogers (6-3 6-1). During the match, Sabalenka scored 75 points vs Rogers’s 52. The Belarussian was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka bagged 3 aces and she was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Overall, Aryna Sabalenka was pretty effective on serve to win 74% (23/31) of her 1st serve and 61% (11/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Sabalenka broke Rogers 5 times after converting 45% of her break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 59% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 66% of her matches (269-140). 6-0 on hard in 2023. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an overall160-76 match record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Adelaide where she overcame Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4).
Sabalenka has an overall 6-0 win-loss record in 2023, 6-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Elise Mertens
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27-25 | 17-15 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-22 | 24-16 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-23 | 19-14 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-20 | 20-10 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 34-13 | 17-7 | 9-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 32, Mertens got to the 3rd round after defeating Garbine Muguruza 3-6 7-63 6-1 and Lauren Davis 6-4 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Elise had a good straight sets win against Davis (6-4 6-3). During the match Mertens scored 50 points vs Davis’s 42. Mertens was exceptionally aggressive to blast 19 winners.
About the serving games, Mertens made 7 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Elise Mertens was pretty effective on serve to win 76% (19/25) of her 1st serve and 64% (14/22) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. The Belgian broke Davis 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mertens has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Mertens has an aggregate 3-2 win-loss record in 2023, 3-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2018. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 33 | 48 |
| Pts | 135-92 | 146-124 |
| Total Points | 227 | 270 |
| Winners | 50 | 50 |
| %Winners | 37% | 34% |
Both Sabalenka and Mertens played 2 matches. At the moment, Elise Mertens conceded 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t lost a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Mertens (4 vs 5). Therefore, Sabalenka played 15 games less than Mertens. The Belarussian scored 50 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Mertens bagged 50 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 6 |
| 1st in | 62/104 | 66/123 |
| %1st in | 60% | 54% |
| 1st pts | 50/62 | 50/66 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 23/42 | 28/57 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 49% |
Sabalenka made 6 aces (3 per match). Mertens recorded 12 aces (6 per match). Sabalenka won 81% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 76% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 11 |
| Converted | 8/17 | 11/21 |
| % Converted | 47% | 52% |
| Conceded | 9 | 6 |
| Saved | 8 | 0 |
| % Saved | 89% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 6 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 8 times with a 47% conversion rate. Sabalenka conceded her serve once and she saved 89% of the break points that she conceded. Elise broke her opponents 11 times with a 52% conversion rate. The Belgian conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 0% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||
| R1 Martincova |
R2 Rogers |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 6-3 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 16 | 33 | |
| pts | 60-40 | 75-52 | 135-92 | |
| Total points | 100 | 127 | 227 | |
| Winners | 27 | 23 | 50 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 31% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 31/55 | 31/49 | 62/104 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 63% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 27/31 | 23/31 | 50/62 | |
| % 1st pts | 87% | 74% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/24 | 11/18 | 23/42 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 61% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 5/11 | 8/17 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 45% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 3/4 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mertens | ||||
| R1 Muguruza |
R2 Davis |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-63 6-1 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 19 | 48 | |
| pts | 96-82 | 50-42 | 146-124 | |
| Total points | 178 | 92 | 270 | |
| Winners | 31 | 19 | 50 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 38% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 7 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 41/76 | 25/47 | 66/123 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 53% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 31/41 | 19/25 | 50/66 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 76% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/35 | 14/22 | 28/57 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 64% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 7/15 | 4/6 | 11/21 | |
| Converted % | 47% | 67% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Saved | 0/5 | 0/1 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
W
Tennis Scores – Australian Open
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Cristina BucsaBucsa (6-0 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Cori GauffGauff – Bernarda PeraPera (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-0 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Kateryna BaindlBaindl (6-3 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (6-2 5-7 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Madison KeysKeys – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Lin ZhuZhu – Maria SakkariSakkari (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Varvara GrachevaGracheva – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Shuai ZhangZhang – Katie VolynetsVolynets (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Magda LinetteLinette – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Laura SiegemundSiegemund – Caroline GarciaGarcia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elise MertensMertens (6-2) – H2H and prediction
- Camila GiorgiGiorgi – Belinda BencicBencic (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Nuria Parrizas-DiazParrizas-Diaz – Donna VekicVekic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Elena RybakinaRybakina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Cori GauffGauff (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
