Madison Keys and Victoria Azarenka will play each other in the 3rd round of the Australian Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 7:00 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Victoria Azarenka who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Victoria Azarenka is the pick to win this match.
Victoria Azarenka -> 1.71
Madison Keys -> 2.14

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Victoria Azarenka

This will be the 4th time that Madison Keys and Victoria Azarenka play each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Azarenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Azarenka won 6-4 6-7(4) 6-1 in the 3rd round in Guadalajara back in 2022.

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
7
High
5
LLLLWWLWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 37-15 24-6 9-4 0-2 4-3 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 13, Madison reached the 3rd round after defeating Anna Blinkova 6-4 3-6 6-2 and Xinyu Wang 6-3 6-2.

In the 2nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Wang (6-3 6-2). During the match, Keys scored 71 points vs Wang’s 48. The American was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Regarding the service games, Keys fired 3 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Madison Keys was very effective on serve to win 76% (32/42) of her 1st serve and 58% (7/12) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Madison broke Wang 4 times after converting 24% of her break points (4/17).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Keys has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 56% of the points she played.

Keys has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (239-137). 7-0 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Keys has a compiled 148-83 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Australia where she defeated Lucia Bronzetti in the final 6-3 6-2.

Madison has an overall 7-0 win-loss record in 2023, 7-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Australian Open
Keys's Record

Victoria Azarenka

Victoria Azarenka

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
135
High
1
LWWLLWWWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 11-12 6-7 2-3 0-0 3-2 0-0
2024 30-15 20-10 7-4 0-0 3-1 0-0
2023 23-19 17-13 2-3 0-0 4-3 0-0
2022 24-13 18-9 6-3 0-1 0-0 0-0
2021 28-9 18-6 4-1 0-0 6-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 24, Azarenka got to the 3rd round after defeating Sofia Kenin 6-4 7-63 and Nadia Podoroska 6-1 6-0.

In the 2nd round, Victoria had a good straight sets win against Podoroska (6-1 6-0). During the match Azarenka scored 50 points vs Podoroska’s 22. Azarenka was very aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Talking about serving, Azarenka couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she was pretty steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Victoria Azarenka was extremely effective on serve to win 78% (21/27) of her 1st serve and 57% (4/7) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Victoria broke Podoroska 6 times after converting 86% of her break points (6/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Victoria hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.

Azarenka has an aggregate 4-2 win-loss record in 2023, 4-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, she won this tournament twice in 2012 and 2013. See her history.

Australian Open
Azarenka's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Keys
V.Azarenka
3h:16
3h:16
Time on court​
3h:01
3h:01
1h:17
1h:17
Last match​
!
0h:57
0h:57
2
2
Match played
2
2
44
44
Games Played​
36
36
5
5
Set played​​
4
4
164
164
Total points​
132
132
82
82
Avg point​
66
66
64
64
Winners
60
60
32
32
Avg Winners​
30
30
39%
39%
Ratio winners
45%
45%
-- Serve --
6
6
Aces
7
7
3
3
Avg Aces
3.5
3.5
4
4
Double Faults
2
2
2
2
Avg Double Faults
1
1
64/106
64/106
1st won total​
60/79
60/79
60%
60%
1st won %
!
76%
76%
20/41
20/41
2nd won total​
20/34
20/34
49%
49%
2nd won %
59%
59%
-- Break Points --
13/30
13/30
BP won
8/17
8/17
6.5/15
6.5/15
Avg BP won
4/8.5
4/8.5
43%
43%
Won
47%
47%
19
19
Conceded
7
7
9.5
9.5
Avg Conceded
3.5
3.5
9
9
Broken
1
1
!
4.5
4.5
Avg Broken
!
0.5
0.5
10
10
Saved
6
6
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Keys Azarenka
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 5 4
Tot Games 44 36
Pts 164-129 132-93
Total Points 293 225
Winners 64 60
%Winners 39% 45%

Both Keys and Azarenka played 2 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys dropped 1 set while Victoria Azarenka hasn’t lost a set so far. Keys has played 1 set more than Azarenka (5 vs 4). Therefore, Keys played 8 games more than Azarenka. Keys scored 64 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Azarenka bagged 60 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve Keys Azarenka
Aces 6 7
Avg per match 3 3.5
1st in 106/147 79/113
%1st in 72% 70%
1st pts 64/106 60/79
%1st pts 60% 76%
2nd pts 20/41 20/34
%2nd pts 49% 59%

Keys bagged 6 aces (3 per match). Azarenka managed to score 7 aces (3.5 per match). Keys won 60% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Azarenka won 76% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 59% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Keys Azarenka
Won 13 8
Converted 13/30 8/17
% Converted 43% 47%
Conceded 19 7
Saved 10 6
% Saved 53% 86%
Times Broken 9 1

Keys broke her opponents 13 times with a 43% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 53% of the break points that she conceded. The Belarussian broke her opponents 8 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve once and she saved 86% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
R1
Blinkova		 R2
Wang		 Total
Score 6-4 3-6 6-2 6-3 6-2
Tot Set 3 2 5
Tot Games 27 17 44
pts 93-81 71-48 164-129
Total points 174 119 293
Winners 32 32 64
%Winners 34% 45% 39%
SERVE
Aces 3 3 6
Double Faults 3 1 4
1st in 64/93 42/54 106/147
% 1st in 69% 78% 72%
1st pts 32/64 32/42 64/106
% 1st pts 50% 76% 60%
2nd pts 13/29 7/12 20/41
% 2nd pts 45% 58% 49%
Breaks
Won 9 4 13
Converted 9/13 4/17 13/30
Converted % 69% 24% 43%
Conceded 16 3 19
Saved 8/16 2/3 10
Saved % 50% 67% 59%
Times Broken 8 1 9
Azarenka
R1
Kenin		 R2
Podoroska		 Total
Score 6-4 7-63 6-1 6-0
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 23 13 36
pts 82-71 50-22 132-93
Total points 153 72 225
Winners 39 21 60
%Winners 48% 42% 45%
SERVE
Aces 7 0 7
Double Faults 2 0 2
1st in 52/79 27/34 79/113
% 1st in 66% 79% 70%
1st pts 39/52 21/27 60/79
% 1st pts 75% 78% 76%
2nd pts 16/27 4/7 20/34
% 2nd pts 59% 57% 59%
Breaks
Won 2 6 8
Converted 2/10 6/7 8/17
Converted % 20% 86% 47%
Conceded 7 0 7
Saved 6/7 0/0 6
Saved % 86% – 43%
Times Broken 1 0 1

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

Upcoming matches in the draw

Keys
More Stats
Click here
Azarenka

Click for FULL STATS