Yoshihito Nishioka and Mackenzie Mcdonald will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Australian Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 2:30 pm on Court 3. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Yoshihito Nishioka who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Yoshihito Nishioka is the pick to win this match.
Yoshihito Nishioka -> 1.59
Mackenzie Mcdonald -> 2.36

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Prediction and head to head Yoshihito Nishioka vs. Mackenzie Mcdonald

This will be the 6th time that Yoshihito Nishioka and Mackenzie Mcdonald play each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Nishioka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Nishioka won 6-4 6-3 in the 2nd round in Adelaide back in January 2023.

Highlights Yoshihito Nishioka vs Mackenzie Mcdonald – Adelaide 04-January-2023

Yoshihito Nishioka

Yoshihito Nishioka

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
111
High
24
WWWWWWLWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 26-22 16-14 0-2 10-2 0-4 0-0
2024 29-24 17-15 6-7 1-0 5-2 0-0
2023 23-22 14-15 5-5 4-1 0-1 0-0
2022 44-25 25-13 2-5 17-6 0-1 0-0
2021 19-26 5-11 8-7 5-5 1-3 0-0

Ranked no. 33 (career-high), Nishioka reached the 3rd round after defeating Mikael Ymer 6-4 6-2 7-5 and Dalibor Svrcina 6-3 6-4 6-2.

In the 2nd round, Yoshihito had a good straight sets win against Svrcina (6-3 6-4 6-2). During the match, Nishioka scored 98 points vs Svrcina’s 70. The Japanese was quite aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Regarding the service games, Nishioka scored 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Yoshihito Nishioka lost the serve twice and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Nishioka put 66% of his first serves in, winning 65% (33/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 77% (20/26) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Svrcina 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Yoshihito hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.

Nishioka has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (322-201). 5-1 on hard in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nishioka has a composed 185-107 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Yoshihito’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Adelaide.

The Japanese has a composed 5-1 win-loss record in 2023, 5-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Australian Open
Nishioka's Record

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Mackenzie Mcdonald

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
112
High
37
LWWLWLWLLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 40-31 24-16 1-4 9-6 6-5 0-0
2024 26-23 18-12 0-4 3-1 5-6 0-0
2023 35-30 23-15 0-6 4-3 8-6 0-0
2022 27-31 16-16 4-6 4-5 3-4 0-0
2021 42-26 15-12 12-5 9-6 6-3 0-0

Ranked no. 65, Mackenzie reached the 3rd round after beating Brandon Nakashima 7-65 7-61 1-6 6-710 6-4 and Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-4 7-5.

In the 2nd round, Mackenzie had a good straight sets win against Nadal (6-4 6-4 7-5). During the match Mcdonald scored 107 points vs Nadal’s 90. The American was quite aggressive to blast 43 winners.

About the serving games, Mcdonald struck 14 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Mackenzie Mcdonald lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Mcdonald put 66% of his first serves in, winning 68% (43/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 63% (20/32) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Nadal 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Mcdonald has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

Mcdonald has an aggregate 4-2 win-loss record in 2023, 4-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2021. See his history.

Australian Open
Mcdonald's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Y.Nishioka
M.Mcdonald
4h:05
4h:05
Time on court​
!
6h:34
6h:34
1h:47
1h:47
Last match​
!
2h:32
2h:32
2
2
Match played
2
2
57
57
Games Played​
88
88
6
6
Set played​​
8
8
194
194
Total points​
274
274
97
97
Avg point​
137
137
73
73
Winners
124
124
36.5
36.5
Avg Winners​
62
62
38%
38%
Ratio winners
45%
45%
-- Serve --
3
3
Aces
28
28
1.5
1.5
Avg Aces
!
14
14
2
2
Double Faults
6
6
1
1
Avg Double Faults
3
3
73/106
73/106
1st won total​
124/167
124/167
69%
69%
1st won %
!
74%
74%
39/57
39/57
2nd won total​
51/84
51/84
!
68%
68%
2nd won %
!
61%
61%
-- Break Points --
12/25
12/25
BP won
8/15
8/15
6/12.5
6/12.5
Avg BP won
4/7.5
4/7.5
48%
48%
Won
!
53%
53%
8
8
Conceded
9
9
4
4
Avg Conceded
4.5
4.5
4
4
Broken
6
6
2
2
Avg Broken
3
3
4
4
Saved
3
3

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Nishioka Mcdonald
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 6 8
Tot Games 57 88
Pts 194-150 274-256
Total Points 344 530
Winners 73 124
%Winners 38% 45%

Both Nishioka and Mcdonald played 2 matches. At the moment, Mackenzie Mcdonald surrendered 2 sets while Yoshihito Nishioka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Nishioka has played 2 set(s) less than Mcdonald (6 vs 8). Therefore, Nishioka played 31 games less than Mcdonald. Nishioka scored 73 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The American bagged 124 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve Nishioka Mcdonald
Aces 3 28
Avg per match 1.5 14
1st in 106/163 167/251
%1st in 65% 67%
1st pts 73/106 124/167
%1st pts 69% 74%
2nd pts 39/57 51/84
%2nd pts 68% 61%

Nishioka struck 3 aces (1.5 per match). Mcdonald bagged 28 aces (14 per match). Nishioka won 69% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Mcdonald won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Nishioka Mcdonald
Won 12 8
Converted 12/25 8/15
% Converted 48% 53%
Conceded 8 9
Saved 4 3
% Saved 50% 33%
Times Broken 4 6

Yoshihito broke his opponents 12 times with a 48% conversion rate. Yoshihito conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Mcdonald broke his opponents 8 times with a 53% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 33% of the break points that he conceded.

Nishioka
R1
Ymer
R2
Svrcina
Total
Score 6-4 6-2 7-5 6-3 6-4 6-2
Tot Set 3 3 6
Tot Games 30 27 57
pts 96-80 98-70 194-150
Total points 176 168 344
Winners 40 33 73
%Winners 42% 34% 38%
SERVE
Aces 1 2 3
Double Faults 1 1 2
1st in 55/86 51/77 106/163
% 1st in 64% 66% 65%
1st pts 40/55 33/51 73/106
% 1st pts 73% 65% 69%
2nd pts 19/31 20/26 39/57
% 2nd pts 61% 77% 68%
Breaks
Won 6 6 12
Converted 6/12 6/13 12/25
Converted % 50% 46% 48%
Conceded 5 3 8
Saved 3/5 1/3 4
Saved % 60% 33% 47%
Times Broken 2 2 4
Mcdonald
R1
Nakashima
R2
Nadal
Total
Score 7-65 7-61 1-6 6-710 6-4 6-4 6-4 7-5
Tot Set 5 3 8
Tot Games 56 32 88
pts 167-166 107-90 274-256
Total points 333 197 530
Winners 81 43 124
%Winners 49% 40% 45%
SERVE
Aces 14 14 28
Double Faults 4 2 6
1st in 104/156 63/95 167/251
% 1st in 67% 66% 67%
1st pts 81/104 43/63 124/167
% 1st pts 78% 68% 74%
2nd pts 31/52 20/32 51/84
% 2nd pts 60% 63% 61%
Breaks
Won 3 5 8
Converted 3/7 5/8 8/15
Converted % 43% 63% 53%
Conceded 5 4 9
Saved 1/5 2/4 3
Saved % 20% 50% 35%
Times Broken 4 2 6

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

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