Caroline Garcia and Aryna Sabalenka will fight against each other in the final of the WTA Finals for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 8:00 pm on v. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.76
Caroline Garcia -> 2.11
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Prediction and head to head Caroline Garcia vs. Aryna Sabalenka
This will be the 5th time that Caroline Garcia and Aryna Sabalenka face off. The head to head is 2-2 for Garcia and Sabalenka (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on hard.
The last time that they played, Garcia won 6-2 4-6 6-1 in the semifinal in Cincinnati back in August 2022.
Highlights Caroline Garcia vs Aryna Sabalenka – Cincinnati 20-August-2022
Caroline Garcia
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17-17 | 10-10 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-27 | 23-17 | 4-4 | 7-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-21 | 21-13 | 11-4 | 4-1 | 10-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 27-26 | 15-14 | 8-6 | 3-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 11-11 | 5-6 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Garcia got to the final after defeating Cori Gauff 6-4 6-3, Daria Kasatkina 4-6 6-1 7-65 and Maria Sakkari 6-3 6-2.
In the semifinal, Garcia had a good straight sets win against Sakkari (6-3 6-2). During the match, Garcia scored 59 points vs Sakkari’s 40. Garcia was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Garcia made 6 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Caroline Garcia was quite effective on serve to win 77% (23/30) of her 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Caroline broke Sakkari 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The French player has lost 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Garcia has winning match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of her matches (326-235). 20-13 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Garcia has an aggregate 160-133 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Bad Homburg where she defeated Bianca Vanessa Andreescu in the final 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 and in Warsaw where she beat Ana Bogdan in the final 6-4 6-1 and in Cincinnati where she defeated Petra Kvitova in the final 6-2 6-4.
The French player has an aggregate 44-21 win-loss record in 2022, 20-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Fort Worth
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-12 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, Aryna reached the final after defeating Ons Jabeur 3-6 7-65 7-5, Jessica Pegula 6-3 7-5 and Iga Swiatek 6-2 2-6 6-1.
In the semifinal, Aryna defeated Swiatek (6-2 2-6 6-1). During the match Sabalenka scored 83 points vs Swiatek’s 73. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about serving, Sabalenka blasted 12 aces and she committed only 9 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 59% of her first serves in, winning 68% (30/44) of the points behind her 1st serve and 40% (12/30) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Swiatek 6 times after converting 46% of her break points (6/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Sabalenka’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch.
Aryna has an overall 33-21 win-loss record in 2022, 20-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Garcia | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 66 | 78 |
| Pts | 233-188 | 270-243 |
| Total Points | 421 | 513 |
| Winners | 90 | 101 |
| %Winners | 39% | 37% |
Both Garcia and Sabalenka played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Caroline Garcia surrendered 1 set, while Aryna Sabalenka lost 2 sets. Garcia has played 1 set(s) less than Sabalenka (7 vs 8). Therefore, Garcia played 12 games less than Sabalenka. Caroline scored 90 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Sabalenka managed to score 101 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Garcia | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 18 |
| Avg per match | 3.7 | 6 |
| 1st in | 129/216 | 151/253 |
| %1st in | 60% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 90/129 | 101/151 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 44/87 | 46/102 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 45% |
Garcia recorded 11 aces (3.7 per match). Sabalenka made 18 aces (6 per match). Garcia won 70% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Sabalenka won 67% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Garcia | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 17 |
| Converted | 14/27 | 17/33 |
| % Converted | 52% | 52% |
| Conceded | 12 | 25 |
| Saved | 4 | 12 |
| % Saved | 33% | 48% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 13 |
Garcia broke her opponents 14 times with a 52% conversion rate. The French player conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 33% of the break points that she conceded. Sabalenka broke her opponents 17 times with a 52% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 48% of the break points that she conceded.
| Garcia | ||||||
| Round Robin Kasatkina |
Round Robin Swiatek |
Round Robin Gauff |
1/2 Sakkari |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-1 7-65 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 83 | |
| pts | 107-97 | – | 67-51 | 59-40 | 233-188 | |
| Total points | 204 | 0 | 118 | 99 | 421 | |
| Winners | 37 | 30 | 23 | 90 | ||
| %Winners | 35% | 0% | 45% | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | ||
| 1st in | 60/98 | / | 39/61 | 30/57 | 129/216 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 0% | 64% | 53% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 37/60 | / | 30/39 | 23/30 | 90/129 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 0% | 77% | 77% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/38 | / | 11/22 | 15/27 | 44/87 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 0% | 50% | 56% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | ||
| Converted | 6/14 | / | 4/8 | 4/5 | 14/27 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 0% | 50% | 80% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | ||
| Saved | 2/7 | 0/ | 0/2 | 2/3 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 29% | – | 0% | 67% | 24% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | ||
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| Round Robin Pegula |
Round Robin Sakkari |
Round Robin Jabeur |
1/2 Swiatek |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-5 | 6-2 6-4 | 3-6 7-65 7-5 | 6-2 2-6 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 18 | 34 | 23 | 96 | |
| pts | 80-59 | – | 107-111 | 83-73 | 270-243 | |
| Total points | 139 | 0 | 218 | 156 | 513 | |
| Winners | 28 | 43 | 30 | 101 | ||
| %Winners | 35% | 0% | 40% | 36% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 6 | 9 | 23 | ||
| 1st in | 35/60 | / | 72/119 | 44/74 | 151/253 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 0% | 61% | 59% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 28/35 | / | 43/72 | 30/44 | 101/151 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 0% | 60% | 68% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/25 | / | 23/47 | 12/30 | 46/102 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 0% | 49% | 40% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 | ||
| Converted | 6/12 | / | 5/8 | 6/13 | 17/33 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 0% | 63% | 46% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 10 | 10 | 25 | ||
| Saved | 2/5 | 0/ | 4/10 | 6/10 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 40% | – | 40% | 60% | 35% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | ||
Head 2 Head
LWLLLWLWLW
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