Matteo Arnaldi and Jan-Lennard Struff will face off in the quarter of the Bergamo Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 3:00 pm on PALAINTRED. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jan-Lennard Struff who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jan-Lennard Struff is the pick to win this match.
Jan-Lennard Struff -> 1.53
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.44
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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
There is no head to head record between Matteo Arnaldi and Jan-Lennard Struff since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20-16 | 10-8 | 9-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 140 (career-high), Arnaldi reached the quarter after defeating Gregoire Barrere 6-3 6-1 and Liam Broady 6-4 1-6 6-3.
In the 2nd round, The Italian defeated Broady (6-4 1-6 6-3).During the match, Arnaldi scored less points (5) than Broady. In fact, the world no. 140 won 73 points vs Broady’s. That means that Arnaldi was more focused during the important points. Matteo was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Regarding the service games, Arnaldi fired 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 58% of his first serves in, winning 67% (29/43) of the points behind his 1st serve and 65% (20/31) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Broady twice after converting 25% of his break points (2/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.
Arnaldi has a solid record in the last 5 years having won 64% of his matches (136-78). 4-7 on indoor hard courts in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Arnaldi has an overall8-15 record in the last 5 years on indoor hard courts.
The Italian’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Francavilla Challenger,the San Marino Challenger and the St. Tropez Challenger.
Arnaldi has an overall 50-31 win-loss record in 2022, 4-7 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Bergamo Challenger
Jan-Lennard Struff
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23-13 | 4-6 | 11-4 | 2-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-24 | 21-9 | 14-7 | 5-6 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-22 | 3-10 | 7-4 | 12-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 26-30 | 8-11 | 11-8 | 6-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 15-15 | 10-6 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 168, Jan-Lennard reached the quarter after defeating Flavio Cobolli 6-1 6-2 and Luca Nardi 6-4 7-61.
In the 2nd round, Jan-Lennard had a good straight sets win against Nardi (6-4 7-61). During the match Struff scored 96 points vs Nardi’s 88. The German was exceptionally aggressive to blast 42 winners.
About the serving games, Struff recorded 6 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Jan-Lennard Struff lost the serve once and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Struff put 59% of his first serves in, winning 74% (42/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (19/40) on the 2nd serve. The German broke Nardi twice after converting 22% of his break points (2/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jan-Lennard hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The German’s best result of the season was reaching the final in the Braunschweig Challenger.
Struff has a compiled 20-20 win-loss record in 2022, 9-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Bergamo Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2013 and 2014. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Arnaldi | Struff |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 42 | 38 |
| Pts | 137-114 | 157-128 |
| Total Points | 251 | 285 |
| Winners | 52 | 71 |
| %Winners | 38% | 45% |
Both Arnaldi and Struff played 2 matches. At the moment, Matteo Arnaldi lost 1 set while Jan-Lennard Struff hasn’t conceded a set so far. Arnaldi has played 1 set more than Struff (5 vs 4). Therefore, Arnaldi played 4 games more than Struff. The Italian scored 52 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Struff blasted 71 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Arnaldi | Struff |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| 1st in | 70/116 | 99/153 |
| %1st in | 60% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 52/70 | 71/99 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 31/46 | 28/54 |
| %2nd pts | 67% | 52% |
Arnaldi bagged 13 aces (6.5 per match). Struff managed to score 15 aces (7.5 per match). Arnaldi won 74% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 67% of the points. On the other side, Struff won 72% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Arnaldi | Struff |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 6 |
| Converted | 6/18 | 6/19 |
| % Converted | 33% | 32% |
| Conceded | 10 | 9 |
| Saved | 8 | 8 |
| % Saved | 80% | 89% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 |
The Italian broke his opponents 6 times with a 33% conversion rate. Matteo dropped his serve twice and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Struff broke his opponents 6 times with a 32% conversion rate. Jan-Lennard conceded his serve once and he saved 89% of the break points that he conceded.
| Arnaldi | ||||
| R1 Barrere |
R2 Broady |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-1 | 6-4 1-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 26 | 42 | |
| pts | 64-36 | 73-78 | 137-114 | |
| Total points | 100 | 151 | 251 | |
| Winners | 23 | 29 | 52 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 40% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 8 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 27/42 | 43/74 | 70/116 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 58% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 23/27 | 29/43 | 52/70 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 67% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/15 | 20/31 | 31/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 73% | 65% | 67% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 2/8 | 6/18 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 25% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 7 | 10 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 5/7 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 71% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Struff | ||||
| R1 Cobolli |
R2 Nardi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-4 7-61 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 23 | 38 | |
| pts | 61-40 | 96-88 | 157-128 | |
| Total points | 101 | 184 | 285 | |
| Winners | 29 | 42 | 71 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 44% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 9 | 6 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 42/56 | 57/97 | 99/153 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 59% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 29/42 | 42/57 | 71/99 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 74% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/14 | 19/40 | 28/54 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 48% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 2/9 | 6/19 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 22% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 5/6 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 83% | 92% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
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