Matteo Arnaldi and Mattia Bellucci will face off in the final of the St. Tropez Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 2:00 pm on CENTRAL TAG HEUER. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Arnaldi who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matteo Arnaldi is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.66
Mattia Bellucci -> 2.17
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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Mattia Bellucci
There is no head to head record between Matteo Arnaldi and Mattia Bellucci since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28-22 | 16-11 | 10-9 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 154 (career-high), Arnaldi reached the final after beating Alexander Shevchenko 6-1 6-2, Harold Mayot 6-2 6-3, Gregoire Barrere 6-4 6-0 and Ugo Humbert 6-4 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Humbert (6-4 6-3). During the match, Arnaldi scored 61 points vs Humbert’s 49. Arnaldi was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Arnaldi bagged 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve once. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 51% of his first serves in, winning 85% (23/27) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (13/26) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Humbert 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to win 60% of the points he played.
Arnaldi has a solid match record in the last 5 years having won 64% of his matches (133-75). 9-2 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Arnaldi has a composed36-12 match record in the last 5 years on hard.
The Italian’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Francavilla Challenger and the San Marino Challenger.
The Italian has a compiled 47-28 win-loss record in 2022, 9-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the St. Tropez Challenger
Matteo has never competed in this tournament before.
Mattia Bellucci
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37-25 | 21-12 | 5-2 | 5-7 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-34 | 22-19 | 2-9 | 4-3 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 66-23 | 30-4 | 25-12 | 11-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-18 | 29-10 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 15-6 | 13-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
Ranked no. 275, Mattia reached the final after defeating Alexandre Aubriot 6-2 6-2, Elliot Benchetrit 7-5 6-4, Louis Wessels 6-4 7-66, Hugo Grenier 6-4 7-65, Salvatore Caruso 6-3 6-1 and Jurij Rodionov 7-62 2-6 6-2.
In the semifinal, Bellucci defeated Rodionov (7-62 2-6 6-2). During the match Bellucci scored 96 points vs Rodionov’s 83. Mattia was pretty aggressive to blast 38 winners.
About the serving games, Bellucci scored 6 aces and he was exceptionally steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Mattia Bellucci lost the serve 4 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Bellucci put 71% of his first serves in, winning 67% (38/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 65% (15/23) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Rodionov 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mattia started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
The Italian’s best result of the season was getting to the final in M15 Monastir,M15 Poitiers,M25 Grasse and M25 Klosters.
Mattia has an overall 59-20 win-loss record in 2022, 29-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Arnaldi | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 67 | 129 |
| Pts | 247-163 | 454-357 |
| Total Points | 410 | 811 |
| Winners | 91 | 176 |
| %Winners | 37% | 39% |
Arnaldi played 4 matches while Bellucci competed in 6 matches. Bellucci started his run from the qualifications while Arnaldi had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Mattia Bellucci surrendered 1 set while Matteo Arnaldi hasn’t lost a set so far. Arnaldi has played 5 set(s) less than Bellucci (8 vs 13). Therefore, Arnaldi played 62 games less than Bellucci. Arnaldi scored 91 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Mattia struck 176 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Arnaldi | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 17 | 37 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 6.2 |
| 1st in | 108/205 | 236/376 |
| %1st in | 53% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 91/108 | 176/236 |
| %1st pts | 84% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 51/97 | 81/140 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 58% |
Arnaldi managed to score 17 aces (4.3 per match). Bellucci recorded 37 aces (6.2 per match). Arnaldi won 84% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Bellucci won 75% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Arnaldi | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 22 |
| Converted | 17/27 | 22/50 |
| % Converted | 63% | 44% |
| Conceded | 9 | 28 |
| Saved | 7 | 18 |
| % Saved | 78% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 10 |
Matteo broke his opponents 17 times with a 63% conversion rate. Matteo lost his serve twice and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded. Mattia broke his opponents 22 times with a 44% conversion rate. Mattia conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Arnaldi | ||||||
| R1 Shevchenko |
R2 Mayot |
1/4 Barrere |
1/2 Humbert |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | 6-4 6-0 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 67 | |
| pts | 57-30 | 73-51 | 56-33 | 61-49 | 247-163 | |
| Total points | 87 | 124 | 89 | 110 | 410 | |
| Winners | 21 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 91 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 32% | 43% | 38% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 25/43 | 28/63 | 28/46 | 27/53 | 108/205 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 44% | 61% | 51% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 21/25 | 23/28 | 24/28 | 23/27 | 91/108 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 82% | 86% | 85% | 84% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 19/35 | 9/18 | 13/26 | 51/97 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 54% | 50% | 50% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 4/7 | 4/6 | 4/7 | 17/27 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 57% | 67% | 57% | 63% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 100% | 0% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bellucci | ||||||||
| Q1 Aubriot |
Q3 Benchetrit |
R1 Wessels |
R2 Grenier |
1/4 Caruso |
1/2 Rodionov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-2 | 7-5 6-4 | 6-4 7-66 | 6-4 7-65 | 6-3 6-1 | 7-62 2-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 16 | 29 | 129 | |
| pts | 57-35 | 81-67 | 83-69 | 77-67 | 60-36 | 96-83 | 454-357 | |
| Total points | 92 | 148 | 152 | 144 | 96 | 179 | 811 | |
| Winners | 23 | 30 | 33 | 30 | 22 | 38 | 176 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 37% | 40% | 39% | 37% | 40% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 37 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 27/46 | 38/69 | 42/67 | 44/69 | 28/45 | 57/80 | 236/376 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 55% | 63% | 64% | 62% | 71% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 23/27 | 30/38 | 33/42 | 30/44 | 22/28 | 38/57 | 176/236 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 79% | 79% | 68% | 79% | 67% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/19 | 14/31 | 14/25 | 14/25 | 12/17 | 15/23 | 81/140 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 45% | 56% | 56% | 71% | 65% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 4/8 | 2/10 | 4/6 | 4/7 | 4/10 | 22/50 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 50% | 20% | 67% | 57% | 40% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 28 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 3/6 | 4/4 | 4/8 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 100% | 50% | 104% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
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