Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will face off in the final of the Rakuten Japan Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:30 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Frances Tiafoe who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Frances Tiafoe is the pick to win this match.
Frances Tiafoe -> 1.82
Taylor Fritz -> 2.03
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Prediction and head to head Taylor Fritz vs. Frances Tiafoe
This will be the 6th time that Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe square off. The head to head is 4-1 for Fritz (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Fritz won 5-7 6-1 6-4 in the 2nd round in Montreal back in August 2022.
Taylor Fritz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-6 | 13-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-23 | 23-10 | 15-7 | 6-4 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 54-24 | 35-11 | 11-6 | 5-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-21 | 24-8 | 5-3 | 9-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-22 | 20-13 | 4-5 | 8-3 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11 (career-high), Fritz reached the final after defeating James Duckworth 6-2 6-72 6-1, Hiroki Moriya 6-1 3-6 6-4, Nick Kyrgios w/o and Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-75 6-3.
In the semifinal, Fritz defeated Shapovalov (6-3 6-75 6-3). During the match, Fritz scored 101 points vs Shapovalov’s 91. Taylor was extremely aggressive to blast 47 winners.
Regarding the service games, Fritz blasted 6 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Taylor Fritz lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Fritz put 54% of his first serves in, winning 82% (47/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (24/49) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Shapovalov 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Taylor has lost 3 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Fritz has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 61% of his matches (292-189). 23-8 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Fritz has an overall177-100 match record in the last 9 years on hard.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Indian Wells where he beat Rafael Nadal in the final 6-3 7-6(5) and in Eastbourne where he overcame Maxime Cressy in the final 6-2 6-7(4) 7-6(4).
Fritz has a composed 40-17 win-loss record in 2022, 23-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Tokyo
Frances Tiafoe
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10-9 | 5-5 | 4-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-27 | 21-13 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-21 | 21-10 | 8-4 | 4-5 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-25 | 19-11 | 8-6 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 42-27 | 19-13 | 4-7 | 10-4 | 9-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19 (career-high), Francis got to the final after defeating Yasutaka Uchiyama 6-3 6-4, Bernabe Zapata Miralles 6-1 7-67, Miomir Kecmanovic 6-0 6-4 and Soon-Woo Kwon 6-2 0-6 6-4.
In the semifinal, Francis defeated Kwon (6-2 0-6 6-4).During the match Tiafoe scored less points (1) than Kwon. In fact, the world no. 11 won 73 points vs Kwon’s. That means that Tiafoe was more focused during the important points. Tiafoe was extremely aggressive to blast 27 winners.
About the serving games, Tiafoe scored 9 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Frances Tiafoe lost the serve 4 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Tiafoe put 53% of his first serves in, winning 69% (27/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (16/35) on the 2nd serve. Tiafoe broke Kwon 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Tiafoe has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
The American’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Estoril.
The American has a composed 31-20 win-loss record in 2022, 19-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Tokyo
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2018. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Fritz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 85 | 79 |
| Pts | 287-239 | 269-228 |
| Total Points | 526 | 497 |
| Winners | 131 | 109 |
| %Winners | 46% | 41% |
Fritz played 3 matches while Tiafoe competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Taylor Fritz surrendered 3 sets, while Frances Tiafoe dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Fritz and Tiafoe have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Fritz played 6 games more than Tiafoe. Fritz scored 131 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Francis struck 109 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Fritz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 44 | 32 |
| Avg per match | 14.7 | 8 |
| 1st in | 161/267 | 148/258 |
| %1st in | 60% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 131/161 | 109/148 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 49/106 | 61/110 |
| %2nd pts | 46% | 55% |
Fritz recorded 44 aces (14.7 per match). Tiafoe recorded 32 aces (8 per match). Fritz won 81% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Tiafoe won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Fritz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 14 |
| Converted | 14/26 | 14/33 |
| % Converted | 54% | 42% |
| Conceded | 17 | 18 |
| Saved | 11 | 13 |
| % Saved | 65% | 72% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 5 |
The American broke his opponents 14 times with a 54% conversion rate. Fritz conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 65% of the break points that he conceded. Francis broke his opponents 14 times with a 42% conversion rate. Tiafoe conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 72% of the break points that he conceded.
| Fritz | ||||||
| R1 Duckworth |
R2 Moriya |
1/4 Kyrgios |
1/2 Shapovalov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-72 6-1 | 6-1 3-6 6-4 | w/o | 6-3 6-75 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | – | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 26 | – | 31 | 85 | |
| pts | 95-71 | 91-77 | – | 101-91 | 287-239 | |
| Total points | 166 | 168 | – | 192 | 526 | |
| Winners | 50 | 34 | – | 47 | 131 | |
| %Winners | 53% | 37% | – | 47% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 24 | 14 | – | 6 | 44 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | – | 5 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 57/82 | 47/79 | – | 57/106 | 161/267 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 59% | – | 54% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 50/57 | 34/47 | – | 47/57 | 131/161 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 72% | – | 82% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/25 | 16/32 | – | 24/49 | 49/106 | |
| % 2nd pts | 36% | 50% | – | 49% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | – | 4 | 14 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 5/11 | – | 4/7 | 14/26 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 45% | – | 57% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 6 | – | 7 | 17 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 3/6 | – | 5/7 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 50% | – | 71% | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | – | 2 | 6 | |
| Tiafoe | ||||||
| R1 Uchiyama |
R2 Zapata Miralles |
1/4 Kecmanovic |
1/2 Kwon |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-1 7-67 | 6-0 6-4 | 6-2 0-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 20 | 16 | 24 | 79 | |
| pts | 59-51 | 76-61 | 61-42 | 73-74 | 269-228 | |
| Total points | 110 | 137 | 103 | 147 | 497 | |
| Winners | 30 | 28 | 24 | 27 | 109 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 37% | 39% | 37% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 32 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 41/64 | 36/67 | 32/53 | 39/74 | 148/258 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 54% | 60% | 53% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 30/41 | 28/36 | 24/32 | 27/39 | 109/148 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 78% | 75% | 69% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/23 | 17/31 | 12/21 | 16/35 | 61/110 | |
| % 2nd pts | 70% | 55% | 57% | 46% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 14 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 4/9 | 4/10 | 4/8 | 14/33 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 44% | 40% | 50% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 18 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 5/6 | 3/3 | 4/8 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 83% | 100% | 50% | 83% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
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