Hiroki Moriya and Sho Shimabukuro will clash against each other in the qualifications of the Rakuten Japan Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:30 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sho Shimabukuro who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Sho Shimabukuro is the pick to win this match.
Sho Shimabukuro -> 1.85
Hiroki Moriya -> 1.909

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Prediction and head to head Hiroki Moriya vs. Sho Shimabukuro

There is no head to head record between Hiroki Moriya and Sho Shimabukuro since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Hiroki Moriya

Hiroki Moriya

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
470
High
143
LLLWLWLWLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 23-23 23-23 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 38-32 36-28 0-0 2-2 0-2 0-0
2023 31-28 31-27 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0
2022 27-30 18-19 0-0 7-9 1-1 1-1
2021 22-28 13-17 0-0 8-9 0-0 1-2

Ranked no. 261, Hiroki reached the qualifications after defeating Yuki Mochizuki 6-3 6-4.

In the qualifications, Hiroki had a good straight sets win against Mochizuki (6-3 6-4). During the match, Moriya scored 68 points vs Mochizuki’s 56. Moriya was exceptionally aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about the service games, Moriya scored just 1 ace in the match and he committed only 1 double fault. Hiroki Moriya was extremely effective on serve to win 77% (36/47) of his 1st serve and 54% (14/26) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Japanese broke Mochizuki twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).

Moriya has a weak match record in the last 10 years having won only 48% of his matches (269-293). 14-12 on hard in 2022. . In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Moriya has a compiled 196-188 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

The Japanese’s best result of the year was getting to the final in M25 Nottingham.

The Japanese has a composed 23-22 win-loss record in 2022, 14-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Tokyo
Moriya's Record

Sho Shimabukuro

Sho Shimabukuro

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
145
High
135
LWWLWWWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 34-23 29-19 0-0 2-1 3-3 0-0
2024 30-28 21-17 1-3 3-5 5-3 0-0
2023 43-26 19-17 7-1 9-4 8-4 0-0
2022 42-25 38-20 0-2 4-3 0-0 0-0
2021 31-20 28-18 0-0 3-2 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 355, Shimabukuro reached the qualifications after defeating Go Soeda 6-3 6-4.

In the qualifications, Shimabukuro had a good straight sets win against Soeda (6-3 6-4). During the match Shimabukuro scored 60 points vs Soeda’s 43. Sho was exceptionally aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about serving, Shimabukuro bagged 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Sho Shimabukuro was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 82% (23/28) of his 1st serve and 57% (16/28) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Shimabukuro was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Soeda 3 times.

Sho’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in M25 Monastir and M25 Harmon.

Sho has a composed 33-19 win-loss record in 2022, 30-15 on hard (See FULL STATS)

.
Tokyo
Shimabukuro's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament

H.Moriya
S.Shimabukuro
1h:22
1h:22
Time on court​
1h:09
1h:09
1h:22
1h:22
Last match​
1h:09
1h:09
1
1
Match played
1
1
19
19
Games Played​
19
19
2
2
Set played​​
2
2
68
68
Total points​
60
60
68
68
Avg point​
60
60
36
36
Winners
23
23
36
36
Avg Winners​
23
23
53%
53%
Ratio winners
38%
38%
-- Serve --
1
1
Aces
3
3
1
1
Avg Aces
3
3
1
1
Double Faults
4
4
1
1
Avg Double Faults
4
4
36/47
36/47
1st won total​
23/28
23/28
!
77%
77%
1st won %
!
82%
82%
14/26
14/26
2nd won total​
16/28
16/28
54%
54%
2nd won %
57%
57%
-- Break Points --
2/3
2/3
BP won
3/3
3/3
2/3
2/3
Avg BP won
3/3
3/3
!
67%
67%
Won
!
100%
100%
5
5
Conceded
3
3
5
5
Avg Conceded
3
3
0
0
Broken
1
1
!
0
0
Avg Broken
1
1
5
5
Saved
2
2

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Moriya Shimabukuro
Match played 1 1
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 19
Pts 68-56 60-43
Total Points 124 103
Winners 36 23
%Winners 53% 38%

Both Moriya and Shimabukuro played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Moriya and Shimabukuro have played the same amount of sets 2. They also played the same amount of games (19). The Japanese scored 36 winners (53% of the total points). On the other side, Sho bagged 23 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve Moriya Shimabukuro
Aces 1 3
Avg per match 1 3
1st in 47/73 28/56
%1st in 64% 50%
1st pts 36/47 23/28
%1st pts 77% 82%
2nd pts 14/26 16/28
%2nd pts 54% 57%

Moriya fired 1 ace . Shimabukuro also blasted 3 aces . Moriya won 77% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Shimabukuro won 82% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Moriya Shimabukuro
Won 2 3
Converted 2/3 3/3
% Converted 67% 100%
Conceded 5 3
Saved 5 2
% Saved 100% 67%
Times Broken 0 1

The Japanese broke his opponent twice with a 67% conversion rate. Hiroki was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 5 break points. Sho broke his opponent 3 times with a 100% conversion rate. The Japanese conceded his serve once and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Moriya
Q1
Mochizuki
Total
Score 6-3 6-4
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 19
pts 68-56 68-56
Total points 124 124
Winners 36 36
%Winners 53% 53%
SERVE
Aces 1 1
Double Faults 1 1
1st in 47/73 47/73
% 1st in 64% 64%
1st pts 36/47 36/47
% 1st pts 77% 77%
2nd pts 14/26 14/26
% 2nd pts 54% 54%
Breaks
Won 2 2
Converted 2/3 2/3
Converted % 67% 67%
Conceded 5 5
Saved 5/5 5
Saved % 100% 100%
Times Broken 0 0
Shimabukuro
Q1
Soeda
Total
Score 6-3 6-4
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 19
pts 60-43 60-43
Total points 103 103
Winners 23 23
%Winners 38% 38%
SERVE
Aces 3 3
Double Faults 4 4
1st in 28/56 28/56
% 1st in 50% 50%
1st pts 23/28 23/28
% 1st pts 82% 82%
2nd pts 16/28 16/28
% 2nd pts 57% 57%
Breaks
Won 3 3
Converted 3/3 3/3
Converted % 100% 100%
Conceded 3 3
Saved 2/3 2
Saved % 67% 67%
Times Broken 1 1

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