Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud will face off in the final of the U.S. Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 5 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.6
Casper Ruud -> 2.46
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud
This will be the 3rd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Alcaraz won 7-5 6-4 in the final in Miami back in April 2022.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud – Miami 03-April-2022
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25-5 | 13-2 | 12-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4 (career-high), the Spaniard reached the final after beating Sebastian Baez 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret., Federico Coria 6-2 6-1 7-5, Jenson Brooksby 6-3 6-3 6-3, Marin Cilic 6-4 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-3, Jannik Sinner 6-3 6-77 6-70 7-5 6-3 and Frances Tiafoe 6-76 6-3 6-1 6-75 6-3.
In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a tough win against Tiafoe to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (6-76 6-3 6-1 6-75 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 171 points vs Tiafoe’s 142. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 78 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz scored 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was very efficient on serve to win 74% (78/105) of his 1st serve and 60% (27/45) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. Carlos broke Tiafoe 9 times after converting 45% of his break points (9/20).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carlos has dropped 6 set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 5 years having won 77% of his matches (161-47). 20-4 on hard in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has a compiled48-14 record in the last 5 years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in in Rio de Janeiro where he beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 6-4 6-2 and in in Miami where he beat Casper Ruud in the final 7-5 6-4 and in in Barcelona where he overcame Pablo Carreno-Busta in the final 6-3 6-2 and in in Madrid where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 6-1.
Carlos has a compiled 50-9 win-loss record in 2022, 20-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Casper Ruud
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 39-10 | 17-5 | 21-5 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-23 | 12-12 | 22-8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-22 | 18-8 | 25-7 | 7-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 57-17 | 16-6 | 28-5 | 11-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 22-13 | 4-5 | 17-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, Casper got to the final after defeating Kyle Edmund 6-3 7-5 6-2, Tim Van Rijthoven 6-74 6-4 6-4 6-4, Tommy Paul 7-63 6-75 7-62 5-7 6-0, Corentin Moutet 6-1 6-2 6-74 6-2, Matteo Berrettini 6-1 6-4 7-64 and Karen Khachanov 7-65 6-2 5-7 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Norwegian had a good straight sets win against Khachanov (7-65 6-2 5-7 6-2). During the match Ruud scored 128 points vs Khachanov’s 104. Casper was exceptionally aggressive to blast 57 winners.
Talking about serving, Ruud scored 10 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Casper Ruud was pretty effective on serve to win 83% (57/69) of his 1st serve and 59% (23/39) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. Casper broke Khachanov 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Norwegian has conceded 5 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was conquering the title in in Buenos Aires where he beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 5-7 6-2 6-3 and in in Geneva where he overcame Joao Sousa in the final 7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(1) and in in Gstaad where he overcame Matteo Berrettini in the final 4-6 7-6(4) 6-2.
Casper has an aggregate 44-15 win-loss record in 2022, 17-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 25 | 23 |
| Tot Games | 235 | 236 |
| Pts | 815-702 | 771-654 |
| Total Points | 1517 | 1425 |
| Winners | 341 | 342 |
| %Winners | 42% | 44% |
Both Alcaraz and Ruud played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz dropped 6 sets, while Casper Ruud conceded 5 sets. Alcaraz has played 2 sets more than Ruud (25 vs 23). However, it’s interesting to notice that Alcaraz played 1 game less than Ruud. Alcaraz scored 341 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Casper scored 342 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 27 | 36 |
| Avg per match | 4.5 | 6 |
| 1st in | 505/738 | 445/691 |
| %1st in | 68% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 341/505 | 342/445 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 132/233 | 139/246 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 57% |
Alcaraz struck 27 aces (4.5 per match). Ruud struck 36 aces (6 per match). Alcaraz won 68% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Ruud won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 45 | 35 |
| Converted | 45/98 | 35/84 |
| % Converted | 46% | 42% |
| Conceded | 60 | 41 |
| Saved | 39 | 27 |
| % Saved | 65% | 66% |
| Times Broken | 21 | 14 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 45 times with a 46% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve 21 times and he saved 65% of the break points that he conceded. The Norwegian broke his opponents 35 times with a 42% conversion rate. Ruud conceded his serve 14 times and he saved 66% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||||||
| R1 Baez |
R2 Coria |
R3 Brooksby |
R4 Cilic |
1/4 Sinner |
1/2 Tiafoe |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret. | 6-2 6-1 7-5 | 6-3 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-3 | 6-3 6-77 6-70 7-5 6-3 | 6-76 6-3 6-1 6-75 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 27 | 27 | 48 | 56 | 51 | 235 | |
| pts | 99-85 | 107-79 | 96-71 | 143-142 | 199-183 | 171-142 | 815-702 | |
| Total points | 184 | 186 | 167 | 285 | 382 | 313 | 1517 | |
| Winners | 42 | 49 | 39 | 64 | 69 | 78 | 341 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 46% | 41% | 45% | 35% | 46% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 27 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | |
| 1st in | 62/100 | 73/102 | 52/74 | 103/143 | 110/169 | 105/150 | 505/738 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 72% | 70% | 72% | 65% | 70% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 42/62 | 49/73 | 39/52 | 64/103 | 69/110 | 78/105 | 341/505 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 67% | 75% | 62% | 63% | 74% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/38 | 16/29 | 10/22 | 24/40 | 35/59 | 27/45 | 132/233 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 55% | 45% | 60% | 59% | 60% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 45 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 7/10 | 7/11 | 6/18 | 11/26 | 9/20 | 45/98 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 70% | 64% | 33% | 42% | 45% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 7 | 60 | |
| Saved | 8/10 | 13/14 | 1/4 | 4/9 | 9/16 | 4/7 | 39 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 93% | 25% | 44% | 56% | 57% | 59% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 21 | |
| Ruud | ||||||||
| R1 Edmund |
R2 Van Rijthoven |
R3 Paul |
R4 Moutet |
1/4 Berrettini |
1/2 Khachanov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-5 6-2 | 6-74 6-4 6-4 6-4 | 7-63 6-75 7-62 5-7 6-0 | 6-1 6-2 6-74 6-2 | 6-1 6-4 7-64 | 7-65 6-2 5-7 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 43 | 57 | 36 | 30 | 41 | 236 | |
| pts | 102-75 | 124-113 | 180-167 | 131-106 | 106-89 | 128-104 | 771-654 | |
| Total points | 177 | 237 | 347 | 237 | 195 | 232 | 1425 | |
| Winners | 40 | 68 | 70 | 60 | 47 | 57 | 342 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 55% | 39% | 46% | 44% | 45% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 10 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 36 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 | |
| 1st in | 49/88 | 83/118 | 98/160 | 83/120 | 63/97 | 69/108 | 445/691 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 70% | 61% | 69% | 65% | 64% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 40/49 | 68/83 | 70/98 | 60/83 | 47/63 | 57/69 | 342/445 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 82% | 71% | 72% | 75% | 83% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/39 | 21/35 | 36/62 | 22/37 | 17/34 | 23/39 | 139/246 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 60% | 58% | 59% | 50% | 59% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 35 | |
| Converted | 6/14 | 4/8 | 7/18 | 7/17 | 5/14 | 6/13 | 35/84 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 50% | 39% | 41% | 36% | 46% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 41 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 6/7 | 1/6 | 5/6 | 7/9 | 2/5 | 27 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 86% | 17% | 83% | 78% | 40% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 14 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWLWW
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