Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur will square off in the final of the U.S. Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 4:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.57
Ons Jabeur -> 2.54
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Ons Jabeur
This will be the 5th time that Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur square off. The head to head is 2-2 for Swiatek and Jabeur (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Swiatek won 6-2 6-2 in the final in Rome back in May 2022.
Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Ons Jabeur – Rome 15-May-2022
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32-10 | 21-6 | 11-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Swiatek got to the final after beating Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-0, Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2, Lauren Davis 6-3 6-4, Jule Niemeier 2-6 6-4 6-0, Jessica Pegula 6-3 7-64 and Aryna Sabalenka 3-6 6-1 6-4.
In the semifinal against Sabalenka, Swiatek recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-4). During the match, Swiatek scored 90 points vs Sabalenka’s 77. Swiatek was exceptionally aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Regarding the service games, Swiatek bagged 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 5 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 73% of her first serves in, winning 65% (37/57) of the points behind her 1st serve and 29% (6/21) on the 2nd serve. Swiatek broke Sabalenka 7 times after converting 70% of her break points (7/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Swiatek has conceded 2 set in this tournament to conquer 56% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 79% of her matches (206-54). 34-5 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has an overall83-28 win-loss record in the last 7 years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in in Doha where she overcame Anett Kontaveit in the final 6-2 6-0 and in in Indian Wells where she defeated Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-1 and in in Miami where she beat Naomi Osaka in the final 6-4 6-0 and in in Stuttgart where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-2 6-2 and in in Rome where she overcame Ons Jabeur in the final 6-2 6-2 and in at the French Open where she overcame Cori Gauff in the final 6-1 6-3.
Swiatek has an overall 56-7 win-loss record in 2022, 34-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Ons Jabeur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-11 | 12-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 16-14 | 2-6 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-17 | 18-11 | 11-3 | 0-0 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-17 | 19-12 | 17-4 | 0-0 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 25-12 | 13-4 | 0-1 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Jabeur got to the final after beating Madison Brengle 7-5 6-2, Elizabeth Mandlik 7-5 6-2, Shelby Rogers 4-6 6-4 6-3, Veronika Kudermetova 7-61 6-4, Ajla Tomljanovic 6-4 7-64 and Caroline Garcia 6-1 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Tunisian had a good straight sets win against Garcia (6-1 6-3). During the match Jabeur scored 59 points vs Garcia’s 40. The Tunisian was extremely aggressive to blast 19 winners.
About the serving games, Jabeur bagged 8 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Ons Jabeur was pretty effective on serve to win 83% (19/23) of her 1st serve and 57% (17/30) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Tunisian was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Garcia 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jabeur has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in in Madrid where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 0-6 6-2 and in in Berlin where she overcame Belinda Bencic in the final 6-3 2-1 ret..
Jabeur has a compiled 44-13 win-loss record in 2022, 16-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2019, 2020 and 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Jabeur |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 14 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 123 | 131 |
| Pts | 465-369 | 457-368 |
| Total Points | 834 | 825 |
| Winners | 161 | 162 |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% |
Both Swiatek and Jabeur played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek surrendered 2 sets, while Ons Jabeur lost 1 set. Swiatek has played 1 set more than Jabeur (14 vs 13). However, it’s interesting to notice that Swiatek played 8 games less than Jabeur. Iga scored 161 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Ons managed to score 162 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Jabeur |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 34 |
| Avg per match | 2.2 | 5.7 |
| 1st in | 258/393 | 223/416 |
| %1st in | 66% | 54% |
| 1st pts | 161/258 | 162/223 |
| %1st pts | 62% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 68/135 | 89/193 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 46% |
Swiatek made 13 aces (2.2 per match). Jabeur fired 34 aces (5.7 per match). Swiatek won 62% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Jabeur won 73% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Jabeur |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 35 | 31 |
| Converted | 35/69 | 31/56 |
| % Converted | 51% | 55% |
| Conceded | 40 | 31 |
| Saved | 20 | 14 |
| % Saved | 50% | 45% |
| Times Broken | 20 | 17 |
Swiatek broke her opponents 35 times with a 51% conversion rate. The Pole lost her serve 20 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Ons broke her opponents 31 times with a 55% conversion rate. The Tunisian conceded her serve 17 times and she saved 45% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | ||||||||
| R1 Paolini |
R2 Stephens |
R3 Davis |
R4 Niemeier |
1/4 Pegula |
1/2 Sabalenka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | 2-6 6-4 6-0 | 6-3 7-64 | 3-6 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 17 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 123 | |
| pts | 57-34 | 59-43 | 84-69 | 96-82 | 79-64 | 90-77 | 465-369 | |
| Total points | 91 | 102 | 153 | 178 | 143 | 167 | 834 | |
| Winners | 16 | 23 | 33 | 28 | 24 | 37 | 161 | |
| %Winners | 28% | 39% | 39% | 29% | 30% | 41% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 25/40 | 30/49 | 44/73 | 54/81 | 48/72 | 57/78 | 258/393 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 61% | 60% | 67% | 67% | 73% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 16/25 | 23/30 | 33/44 | 28/54 | 24/48 | 37/57 | 161/258 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 77% | 75% | 52% | 50% | 65% | 62% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/15 | 11/19 | 14/29 | 16/27 | 12/24 | 6/21 | 68/135 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 58% | 48% | 59% | 50% | 29% | 50% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 35 | |
| Converted | 7/9 | 4/12 | 3/14 | 7/13 | 7/11 | 7/10 | 35/69 | |
| Converted % | 78% | 33% | 21% | 54% | 64% | 70% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 40 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1/2 | 2/3 | 7/12 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 40% | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20 | |
| Jabeur | ||||||||
| R1 Brengle |
R2 Mandlik |
R3 Rogers |
R4 Kudermetova |
1/4 Tomljanovic |
1/2 Garcia |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-2 | 7-5 6-2 | 4-6 6-4 6-3 | 7-61 6-4 | 6-4 7-64 | 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | 29 | 23 | 23 | 16 | 131 | |
| pts | 75-60 | 67-51 | 105-88 | 74-62 | 77-67 | 59-40 | 457-368 | |
| Total points | 135 | 118 | 193 | 136 | 144 | 99 | 825 | |
| Winners | 27 | 21 | 39 | 34 | 22 | 19 | 162 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 31% | 37% | 46% | 29% | 32% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 34 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 38/58 | 32/59 | 52/91 | 47/78 | 31/77 | 23/53 | 223/416 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 54% | 57% | 60% | 40% | 43% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 27/38 | 21/32 | 39/52 | 34/47 | 22/31 | 19/23 | 162/223 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 66% | 75% | 72% | 71% | 83% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/20 | 14/27 | 16/39 | 15/31 | 22/46 | 17/30 | 89/193 | |
| % 2nd pts | 25% | 52% | 41% | 48% | 48% | 57% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 31 | |
| Converted | 7/18 | 6/8 | 6/17 | 3/3 | 5/6 | 4/4 | 31/56 | |
| Converted % | 39% | 75% | 35% | 100% | 83% | 100% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 31 | |
| Saved | 4/8 | 2/5 | 4/8 | 2/4 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 40% | 50% | 50% | 33% | – | 37% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 | |
Head 2 Head
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