Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe will clash against each other in the semifinal of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 7:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 5 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.51
Frances Tiafoe -> 2.71
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Frances Tiafoe
This will be the 2nd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Tiafoe (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Tiafoe won 6-4 7-6(2) in the 1st round in Barcelona back in 2021.
Highlights Frances Tiafoe vs Carlos Alcaraz – Barcelona 20-April-2021
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-4 | 10-4 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4 (career-high), the Spaniard reached the semifinal after beating Sebastian Baez 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret., Federico Coria 6-2 6-1 7-5, Jenson Brooksby 6-3 6-3 6-3, Marin Cilic 6-4 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-3 and Jannik Sinner 6-3 6-77 6-70 7-5 6-3.
In the quarter, Carlos had a tough win against Sinner to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (6-3 6-77 6-70 7-5 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 199 points vs Sinner’s 183. The Spaniard was exceptionally aggressive to blast 69 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz struck 5 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve 7 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 65% of his first serves in, winning 63% (69/110) of the points behind his 1st serve and 59% (35/59) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Sinner 11 times after converting 42% of his break points (11/26).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has lost 4 set in this event to win 53% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 5 years having won 77% of his matches (160-47). 19-4 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has a composed47-14 match record in the last 5 years on hard.
His best result of the season was conquering the title in in Rio de Janeiro where he overcame Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 6-4 6-2 and in in Miami where he beat Casper Ruud in the final 7-5 6-4 and in in Barcelona where he overcame Pablo Carreno-Busta in the final 6-3 6-2 and in in Madrid where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 6-1.
The Spaniard has a composed 49-9 win-loss record in 2022, 19-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Frances Tiafoe
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6-5 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-27 | 21-13 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-21 | 21-10 | 8-4 | 4-5 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-25 | 19-11 | 8-6 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 42-27 | 19-13 | 4-7 | 10-4 | 9-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 26, Francis got to the semifinal after beating Marcos Giron 7-60 6-4 6-3, Jason Murray Kubler 7-63 7-5 7-62, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 7-67 6-4 6-4, Rafael Nadal 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-3 and Andrey Rublev 7-63 7-60 6-4.
In the quarter, Tiafoe had a good straight sets win against Rublev (7-63 7-60 6-4). During the match Tiafoe scored 121 points vs Rublev’s 100. Francis was exceptionally aggressive to blast 49 winners.
Talking about serving, Tiafoe fired 18 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Frances Tiafoe was extremely efficient on serve to win 88% (49/56) of his 1st serve and 63% (35/56) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Rublev once after converting 25% of his break points (1/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Tiafoe has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
The American’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Estoril.
Tiafoe has an aggregate 26-18 win-loss record in 2022, 15-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2020 and 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 20 | 16 |
| Tot Games | 184 | 178 |
| Pts | 644-560 | 604-523 |
| Total Points | 1204 | 1127 |
| Winners | 263 | 227 |
| %Winners | 41% | 38% |
Both Alcaraz and Tiafoe played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz surrendered 4 sets, while Frances Tiafoe dropped 1 set. Alcaraz has played 4 sets more than Tiafoe (20 vs 16). Therefore, Alcaraz played 6 games more than Tiafoe. Carlos scored 263 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Tiafoe recorded 227 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 21 | 76 |
| Avg per match | 4.2 | 15.2 |
| 1st in | 400/588 | 290/569 |
| %1st in | 68% | 51% |
| 1st pts | 263/400 | 227/290 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 105/188 | 157/279 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 56% |
Alcaraz fired 21 aces (4.2 per match). Tiafoe blasted 76 aces (15.2 per match). Alcaraz won 66% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Tiafoe won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 36 | 20 |
| Converted | 36/78 | 20/51 |
| % Converted | 46% | 39% |
| Conceded | 53 | 37 |
| Saved | 35 | 26 |
| % Saved | 66% | 70% |
| Times Broken | 18 | 11 |
Carlos broke his opponents 36 times with a 46% conversion rate. Alcaraz dropped his serve 18 times and he saved 66% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 20 times with a 39% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 11 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | |||||||
| R1 Baez |
R2 Coria |
R3 Brooksby |
R4 Cilic |
1/4 Sinner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret. | 6-2 6-1 7-5 | 6-3 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-3 | 6-3 6-77 6-70 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 27 | 27 | 48 | 56 | 184 | |
| pts | 99-85 | 107-79 | 96-71 | 143-142 | 199-183 | 644-560 | |
| Total points | 184 | 186 | 167 | 285 | 382 | 1204 | |
| Winners | 42 | 49 | 39 | 64 | 69 | 263 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 46% | 41% | 45% | 35% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 | |
| 1st in | 62/100 | 73/102 | 52/74 | 103/143 | 110/169 | 400/588 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 72% | 70% | 72% | 65% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 42/62 | 49/73 | 39/52 | 64/103 | 69/110 | 263/400 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 67% | 75% | 62% | 63% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/38 | 16/29 | 10/22 | 24/40 | 35/59 | 105/188 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 55% | 45% | 60% | 59% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 36 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 7/10 | 7/11 | 6/18 | 11/26 | 36/78 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 70% | 64% | 33% | 42% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 53 | |
| Saved | 8/10 | 13/14 | 1/4 | 4/9 | 9/16 | 35 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 93% | 25% | 44% | 56% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 18 | |
| Tiafoe | |||||||
| R1 Giron |
R2 Murray Kubler |
R3 Schwartzman |
R4 Nadal |
1/4 Rublev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-60 6-4 6-3 | 7-63 7-5 7-62 | 7-67 6-4 6-4 | 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-3 | 7-63 7-60 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 38 | 33 | 39 | 36 | 178 | |
| pts | 102-87 | 143-125 | 118-101 | 120-110 | 121-100 | 604-523 | |
| Total points | 189 | 268 | 219 | 230 | 221 | 1127 | |
| Winners | 49 | 51 | 34 | 44 | 49 | 227 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 36% | 29% | 37% | 40% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 16 | 15 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 76 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 | |
| 1st in | 58/104 | 65/126 | 53/111 | 58/116 | 56/112 | 290/569 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 52% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 51% | |
| 1st pts | 49/58 | 51/65 | 34/53 | 44/58 | 49/56 | 227/290 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 78% | 64% | 76% | 88% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/46 | 34/61 | 29/58 | 35/58 | 35/56 | 157/279 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 56% | 50% | 60% | 63% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 20 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 3/15 | 8/18 | 5/8 | 1/4 | 20/51 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 20% | 44% | 63% | 25% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 37 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 8/10 | 4/10 | 4/6 | 4/4 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 80% | 40% | 67% | 100% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWLWWW
WLWLWLWLWL Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Wesley Koolhof/Neal SkupskiKoolhof/Neal Skupski – Marcelo Arevalo/Jean-Julien RojerArevalo/Jean-Julien Rojer (6-4 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Rajeev Ram/Joe SalisburyRam/Joe Salisbury – Juan-Sebastian Cabal/Robert FarahCabal/Robert Farah (7-5 4-6 7-66) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Casper RuudRuud (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-1) – H2H and prediction
