Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova will square off in the quarter of the U.S. Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 12:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.727
Karolina Pliskova -> 2.16
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Karolina Pliskova
This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova play each other. The head to head is 2-2 for Sabalenka and Pliskova (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Pliskova won 6-3 6-4 in the semifinal in Montreal back in 2021.
Highlights Karolina Pliskova vs Aryna Sabalenka – Montreal 14-August-2021
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 49-11 | 33-6 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, the Belarussian got to the quarter after beating Catherine Harrison 6-1 6-3, Kaia Kanepi 2-6 7-68 6-4, Clara Burel 6-0 6-2 and Danielle Rose Collins 3-6 6-3 6-2.
In the 4th round against Collins, Aryna recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 99 points vs Collins’s 86. The Belarussian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka scored 8 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 61% of her first serves in, winning 60% (34/57) of the points behind her 1st serve and 51% (19/37) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Collins 6 times after converting 40% of her break points (6/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has dropped 2 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 66% of her matches (258-135). 15-10 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an aggregate149-71 record in the last 7 years on hard.
Aryna’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch.
Aryna has an overall 28-17 win-loss record in 2022, 15-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Karolina Pliskova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20-16 | 10-10 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 22-19 | 19-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-21 | 12-9 | 6-6 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-19 | 23-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 14-8 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, Pliskova reached the quarter after defeating Magda Linette 6-2 4-6 7-68, Marie Bouzkova 6-3 6-2, Belinda Bencic 5-7 6-4 6-3 and Victoria Azarenka 7-5 6-75 6-2.
In the 4th round, Pliskova defeated Azarenka (7-5 6-75 6-2). During the match Pliskova scored 129 points vs Azarenka’s 119. Pliskova was quite aggressive to blast 60 winners.
About the serving games, Pliskova fired 8 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Karolina Pliskova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Pliskova put 71% of her first serves in, winning 66% (60/91) of the points behind her 1st serve and 39% (15/38) on the 2nd serve. Karolina broke Azarenka 6 times after converting 43% of her break points (6/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Czech has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
The Czech’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Strasbourg and Toronto.
The Czech has an overall 19-14 win-loss record in 2022, 10-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2016. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 87 | 112 |
| Pts | 327-277 | 393-353 |
| Total Points | 604 | 746 |
| Winners | 121 | 169 |
| %Winners | 37% | 43% |
Both Sabalenka and Pliskova played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 2 sets, while Karolina Pliskova lost 3 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Pliskova (10 vs 11). Therefore, Sabalenka played 25 games less than Pliskova. Sabalenka scored 121 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Karolina blasted 169 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 16 | 35 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 8.8 |
| 1st in | 193/312 | 234/375 |
| %1st in | 62% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 121/193 | 169/234 |
| %1st pts | 63% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 55/119 | 60/141 |
| %2nd pts | 46% | 43% |
Sabalenka made 16 aces (4 per match). Pliskova fired 35 aces (8.8 per match). Sabalenka won 63% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Pliskova won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 23 | 20 |
| Converted | 23/50 | 20/44 |
| % Converted | 46% | 45% |
| Conceded | 28 | 35 |
| Saved | 15 | 23 |
| % Saved | 54% | 66% |
| Times Broken | 13 | 12 |
Aryna broke her opponents 23 times with a 46% conversion rate. Aryna surrendered her serve 13 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded. Pliskova broke her opponents 20 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Czech conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 66% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R1 Harrison |
R2 Kanepi |
R3 Burel |
R4 Collins |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 2-6 7-68 6-4 | 6-0 6-2 | 3-6 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 31 | 14 | 26 | 87 | |
| pts | 62-47 | 97-104 | 69-40 | 99-86 | 327-277 | |
| Total points | 109 | 201 | 109 | 185 | 604 | |
| Winners | 22 | 46 | 19 | 34 | 121 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 47% | 28% | 34% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 25 | |
| 1st in | 35/55 | 72/114 | 29/49 | 57/94 | 193/312 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 63% | 59% | 61% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 22/35 | 46/72 | 19/29 | 34/57 | 121/193 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 64% | 66% | 60% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/20 | 17/42 | 10/20 | 19/37 | 55/119 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 40% | 50% | 51% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 23 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 4/6 | 7/16 | 6/15 | 23/50 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 67% | 44% | 40% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 4/9 | 3/5 | 6/10 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 44% | 60% | 60% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | |
| Pliskova | ||||||
| R1 Linette |
R2 Bouzkova |
R3 Bencic |
R4 Azarenka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 4-6 7-68 | 6-3 6-2 | 5-7 6-4 6-3 | 7-5 6-75 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 17 | 31 | 33 | 112 | |
| pts | 101-99 | 60-39 | 103-96 | 129-119 | 393-353 | |
| Total points | 200 | 99 | 199 | 248 | 746 | |
| Winners | 41 | 30 | 38 | 60 | 169 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 50% | 37% | 47% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 9 | 4 | 14 | 8 | 35 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 21 | |
| 1st in | 53/100 | 33/51 | 57/95 | 91/129 | 234/375 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 65% | 60% | 71% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 41/53 | 30/33 | 38/57 | 60/91 | 169/234 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 91% | 67% | 66% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/47 | 9/18 | 16/38 | 15/38 | 60/141 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 50% | 42% | 39% | 43% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 20 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 3/8 | 7/13 | 6/14 | 20/44 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 38% | 54% | 43% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 35 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 1/1 | 6/12 | 11/14 | 23 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 100% | 50% | 79% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Jessica PegulaPegula (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina PliskovaPliskova – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Caroline GarciaGarcia (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic (2-0) – H2H and prediction
