Carlos Alcaraz and Marin Cilic will square off in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 9:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 4 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.28
Marin Cilic -> 3.84
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Marin Cilic
This will be the 4th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Marin Cilic fight against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Alcaraz won 7-6(4) 6-1 in the 3rd round in Cincinnati back in August 2022.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Marin Cilic – Cincinnati 18-August-2022
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 71-9 | 28-4 | 22-1 | 10-3 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4 (career-high), Carlos got to the 4th round after defeating Sebastian Baez 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret., Federico Coria 6-2 6-1 7-5 and Jenson Brooksby 6-3 6-3 6-3.
In the 3rd round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Brooksby (6-3 6-3 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 96 points vs Brooksby’s 71. Alcaraz was very aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz recorded 8 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve 3 times and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 70% of his first serves in, winning 75% (39/52) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (10/22) on the 2nd serve. Carlos broke Brooksby 7 times after converting 64% of his break points (7/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alcaraz hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 58% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 5 years having won 77% of his matches (158-47). 17-4 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has an overall45-14 win-loss record in the last 5 years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in in Rio de Janeiro where he beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 6-4 6-2 and in in Miami where he beat Casper Ruud in the final 7-5 6-4 and in in Barcelona where he overcame Pablo Carreno-Busta in the final 6-3 6-2 and in in Madrid where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 6-1.
Alcaraz has an overall 47-9 win-loss record in 2022, 17-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Marin Cilic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29-20 | 3-6 | 11-9 | 6-3 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 9-11 | 8-6 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-21 | 16-10 | 9-5 | 4-5 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 6-9 | 5-5 | 13-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, Marin reached the 4th round after beating Maximilian Marterer 6-3 6-2 7-5, Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-3 7-64 6-3 and Daniel Evans 7-611 6-73 6-2 7-5.
In the 3rd round, The Croatian defeated Evans (7-611 6-73 6-2 7-5). During the match Cilic scored 149 points vs Evans’s 133. Marin was extremely aggressive to blast 64 winners.
About the serving games, Cilic submerged his opponent with 26 aces and he committed only 9 double faults. Overall, Marin Cilic was pretty efficient on serve to win 82% (64/78) of his 1st serve and 54% (33/61) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Cilic broke Evans 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Marin has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Cilic’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Adelaide,at the French Open and London.
The Croatian has a composed 28-15 win-loss record in 2022, 16-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2014. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 80 | 106 |
| Pts | 302-235 | 366-298 |
| Total Points | 537 | 664 |
| Winners | 130 | 158 |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% |
Both Alcaraz and Cilic played 3 matches. At the moment, Marin Cilic lost 1 set while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t conceded a set so far. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Cilic have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Alcaraz played 26 games less than Cilic. Carlos scored 130 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Marin blasted 158 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 57 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 19 |
| 1st in | 187/276 | 186/333 |
| %1st in | 68% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 130/187 | 158/186 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 46/89 | 78/147 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 53% |
Alcaraz recorded 13 aces (4.3 per match). Cilic recorded 57 aces (19 per match). Alcaraz won 70% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Cilic won 85% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 13 |
| Converted | 19/34 | 13/36 |
| % Converted | 56% | 36% |
| Conceded | 28 | 17 |
| Saved | 22 | 13 |
| % Saved | 79% | 76% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 4 |
Carlos broke his opponents 19 times with a 56% conversion rate. Carlos conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded. The Croatian broke his opponents 13 times with a 36% conversion rate. Marin conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | |||||
| R1 Baez |
R2 Coria |
R3 Brooksby |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret. | 6-2 6-1 7-5 | 6-3 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 27 | 27 | 80 | |
| pts | 99-85 | 107-79 | 96-71 | 302-235 | |
| Total points | 184 | 186 | 167 | 537 | |
| Winners | 42 | 49 | 39 | 130 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 46% | 41% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 62/100 | 73/102 | 52/74 | 187/276 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 72% | 70% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 42/62 | 49/73 | 39/52 | 130/187 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/38 | 16/29 | 10/22 | 46/89 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 55% | 45% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 7 | 7 | 19 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 7/10 | 7/11 | 19/34 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 70% | 64% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 14 | 4 | 28 | |
| Saved | 8/10 | 13/14 | 1/4 | 22 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 93% | 25% | 66% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Cilic | |||||
| R1 Marterer |
R2 Ramos-Vinolas |
R3 Evans |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 7-5 | 6-3 7-64 6-3 | 7-611 6-73 6-2 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 31 | 46 | 106 | |
| pts | 102-73 | 115-92 | 149-133 | 366-298 | |
| Total points | 175 | 207 | 282 | 664 | |
| Winners | 38 | 56 | 64 | 158 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 49% | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 15 | 16 | 26 | 57 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 7 | 9 | 23 | |
| 1st in | 42/80 | 66/114 | 78/139 | 186/333 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 58% | 56% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 38/42 | 56/66 | 64/78 | 158/186 | |
| % 1st pts | 90% | 85% | 82% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/38 | 21/48 | 33/61 | 78/147 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 44% | 54% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/13 | 4/12 | 5/11 | 13/36 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 33% | 45% | 36% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 4/6 | 7/9 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 67% | 78% | 82% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LWWLWWWLWL Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-4 3-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – Richard GasquetGasquet (6-0 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Daniel EvansEvans (7-611 6-73 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (3-6 6-4 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (7-67 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-4 2-6 6-73 6-4 7-67) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (6-3 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (7-5 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Jeff WolfWolf (6-4 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Andy MurrayMurray (6-4 6-4 6-71 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Tommy PaulPaul (7-63 6-75 7-62 5-7 6-0) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Yibing WuWu (6-4 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Pedro CachinCachin (6-3 4-6 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Jack DraperDraper (6-3 4-6 6-5 ret.) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (6-1 6-1 3-6 7-65) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan (6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Marin CilicCilic – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (3-5) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Nick KyrgiosKyrgios (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Andrey RublevRublev (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Rafael NadalNadal (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (1-0) – H2H and prediction
