Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Rose Collins will face off in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 7:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.59
Danielle Rose Collins -> 2.42
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Danielle Rose Collins
This will be the 4th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Rose Collins fight against each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-3 in the 3rd round in at the U.S. Open back in 2021.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Danielle Rose Collins – U.S. Open 03-September-2021
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-3 | 12-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, the Belarussian reached the 4th round after defeating Catherine Harrison 6-1 6-3, Kaia Kanepi 2-6 7-68 6-4 and Clara Burel 6-0 6-2.
In the 3rd round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Burel (6-0 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 69 points vs Burel’s 40. The Belarussian was pretty aggressive to blast 19 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka managed to score 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 59% of her first serves in, winning 66% (19/29) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (10/20) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Burel 7 times after converting 44% of her break points (7/16).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has dropped 1 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 66% of her matches (257-135). 14-10 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate148-71 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
Sabalenka’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch.
Sabalenka has a compiled 27-17 win-loss record in 2022, 14-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Danielle Rose Collins
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-17 | 20-10 | 19-5 | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 22-18 | 19-15 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-12 | 17-6 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 40-15 | 23-10 | 11-3 | 5-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19, Danielle got to the 4th round after beating Naomi Osaka 7-65 6-3, Cristina Bucsa 6-2 7-5 and Alize Cornet 6-4 7-69.
In the 3rd round, Danielle had a good straight sets win against Cornet (6-4 7-69). During the match Collins scored 84 points vs Cornet’s 71. Collins was pretty aggressive to blast 39 winners.
About the serving games, Collins fired 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Danielle Rose Collins was pretty effective on serve to win 87% (39/45) of her 1st serve and 63% (17/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Cornet once after converting 25% of her break points (1/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
The American’s best result of the year was getting to the final at the Australian Open .
Collins has an aggregate 15-8 win-loss record in 2022, 12-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 61 | 65 |
| Pts | 228-191 | 229-194 |
| Total Points | 419 | 423 |
| Winners | 87 | 97 |
| %Winners | 38% | 42% |
Both Sabalenka and Collins played 3 matches. At the moment, Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set while Danielle Rose Collins hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set more than Collins (7 vs 6). However, it’s interesting to notice that Sabalenka played 4 games less than Collins. Sabalenka scored 87 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Collins fired 97 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 2.7 | 4 |
| 1st in | 136/218 | 120/208 |
| %1st in | 62% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 87/136 | 97/120 |
| %1st pts | 64% | 81% |
| 2nd pts | 36/82 | 45/88 |
| %2nd pts | 44% | 51% |
Sabalenka recorded 8 aces (2.7 per match). Collins managed to score 12 aces (4 per match). Sabalenka won 64% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 44% of the points. On the other side, Collins won 81% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 9 |
| Converted | 17/35 | 9/20 |
| % Converted | 49% | 45% |
| Conceded | 18 | 15 |
| Saved | 9 | 11 |
| % Saved | 50% | 73% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 4 |
Aryna broke her opponents 17 times with a 49% conversion rate. The Belarussian surrendered her serve 9 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 9 times with a 45% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 73% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R1 Harrison |
R2 Kanepi |
R3 Burel |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 2-6 7-68 6-4 | 6-0 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 31 | 14 | 61 | |
| pts | 62-47 | 97-104 | 69-40 | 228-191 | |
| Total points | 109 | 201 | 109 | 419 | |
| Winners | 22 | 46 | 19 | 87 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 47% | 28% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 11 | 2 | 17 | |
| 1st in | 35/55 | 72/114 | 29/49 | 136/218 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 63% | 59% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 22/35 | 46/72 | 19/29 | 87/136 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 64% | 66% | 64% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/20 | 17/42 | 10/20 | 36/82 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 40% | 50% | 44% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 4/6 | 7/16 | 17/35 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 67% | 44% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 9 | 5 | 18 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 4/9 | 3/5 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 44% | 60% | 51% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 | |
| Collins | |||||
| R1 Osaka |
R2 Bucsa |
R3 Cornet |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-3 | 6-2 7-5 | 6-4 7-69 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 20 | 23 | 65 | |
| pts | 72-65 | 73-58 | 84-71 | 229-194 | |
| Total points | 137 | 131 | 155 | 423 | |
| Winners | 31 | 27 | 39 | 97 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 37% | 46% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 4 | 2 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 42/75 | 33/61 | 45/72 | 120/208 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 54% | 63% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 31/42 | 27/33 | 39/45 | 97/120 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 82% | 87% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/33 | 12/28 | 17/27 | 45/88 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 43% | 63% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 5/11 | 1/4 | 9/20 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 45% | 25% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 6 | 1 | 15 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 4/6 | 1/1 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 67% | 100% | 81% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWWWWW
LWWL Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Lauren DavisDavis (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Yue YuanYuan (6-2 6-76 6-0) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Alize CornetCornet (6-4 7-69) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Clara BurelBurel (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Jule NiemeierNiemeier – Qinwen ZhengZheng (6-4 7-65) – See score progression
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Petra MarticMartic (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Petra KvitovaKvitova – Garbine MuguruzaMuguruza (5-7 6-3 7-610) – See score progression
- Karolina PliskovaPliskova – Belinda BencicBencic (5-7 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Madison KeysKeys (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Aleksandra KrunicKrunic (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Dalma GalfiGalfi (6-2 6-0) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Shelby RogersRogers (4-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic – Serena WilliamsWilliams (7-5 6-74 6-1) – See score progression
- Alison RiskeRiske – Xiyu WangWang (6-4 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Shuai ZhangZhang – Rebecca MarinoMarino (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Jule NiemeierNiemeier (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Petra KvitovaKvitova – Jessica PegulaPegula (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (4-4) – H2H and prediction
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Shuai ZhangZhang – Cori GauffGauff (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Alison RiskeRiske (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova – Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic (1-1) – H2H and prediction
