Rafael Nadal and Frances Tiafoe will face off in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 2:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.23
Frances Tiafoe -> 4.4
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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Frances Tiafoe
This will be the 3rd time that Rafael Nadal and Frances Tiafoe play each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Nadal won 6-3 6-4 in the 3rd round in Madrid back in 2019.
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12-7 | 2-1 | 10-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, the Spaniard got to the 4th round after defeating Rinky Hijikata 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-3, Fabio Fognini 2-6 6-4 6-2 6-1 and Richard Gasquet 6-0 6-1 7-5.
In the 3rd round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Gasquet (6-0 6-1 7-5). During the match, Nadal scored 100 points vs Gasquet’s 71. Nadal was very aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Regarding the service games, Nadal blasted 2 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Rafael Nadal lost the serve once and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 59% of his first serves in, winning 78% (39/50) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (17/35) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Gasquet 7 times after converting 47% of his break points (7/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rafael has lost 2 set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points he played.
Nadal has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (483-91). 23-2 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Nadal has an aggregate 199-45 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in in Melbourne where he defeated Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5 and in in Acapulco where he overcame Cameron Norrie in the final 6-4 6-4 and in at the French Open where he beat Casper Ruud in the final 6-3 6-3 6-0.
Nadal has a compiled 38-4 win-loss record in 2022, 23-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Frances Tiafoe
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30-23 | 20-12 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-21 | 21-10 | 8-4 | 4-5 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-25 | 19-11 | 8-6 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 42-27 | 19-13 | 4-7 | 10-4 | 9-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 19-15 | 7-9 | 6-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 26, the American reached the 4th round after beating Marcos Giron 7-60 6-4 6-3, Jason Murray Kubler 7-63 7-5 7-62 and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 7-67 6-4 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Tiafoe had a good straight sets win against Schwartzman (7-67 6-4 6-4). During the match Tiafoe scored 118 points vs Schwartzman’s 101. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Tiafoe struck 9 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Frances Tiafoe lost the serve 6 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Tiafoe put 48% of his first serves in, winning 64% (34/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (29/58) on the 2nd serve. Tiafoe broke Schwartzman 8 times after converting 44% of his break points (8/18).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
The American’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in Estoril.
Tiafoe has an overall 24-18 win-loss record in 2022, 13-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2020 and 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nadal | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 94 | 103 |
| Pts | 324-247 | 363-313 |
| Total Points | 571 | 676 |
| Winners | 119 | 134 |
| %Winners | 37% | 37% |
Both Nadal and Tiafoe played 3 matches. At the moment, Rafael Nadal conceded 2 sets while Frances Tiafoe hasn’t conceded a set so far. Nadal has played 2 sets more than Tiafoe (11 vs 9). However, it’s interesting to notice that Nadal played 9 games less than Tiafoe. The Spaniard scored 119 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Francis recorded 134 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nadal | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 40 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 13.3 |
| 1st in | 160/272 | 176/341 |
| %1st in | 59% | 52% |
| 1st pts | 119/160 | 134/176 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 61/112 | 87/165 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 53% |
Nadal struck 15 aces (5 per match). Tiafoe blasted 40 aces (13.3 per match). Nadal won 74% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Tiafoe won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nadal | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 21 | 14 |
| Converted | 21/39 | 14/39 |
| % Converted | 54% | 36% |
| Conceded | 21 | 27 |
| Saved | 13 | 18 |
| % Saved | 62% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 9 |
Rafael broke his opponents 21 times with a 54% conversion rate. Rafael dropped his serve 8 times and he saved 62% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 14 times with a 36% conversion rate. Tiafoe conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nadal | |||||
| R1 Hijikata |
R2 Fognini |
R3 Gasquet |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-3 | 2-6 6-4 6-2 6-1 | 6-0 6-1 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 36 | 33 | 25 | 94 | |
| pts | 119-95 | 105-81 | 100-71 | 324-247 | |
| Total points | 214 | 186 | 171 | 571 | |
| Winners | 44 | 36 | 39 | 119 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 34% | 39% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 9 | 4 | 2 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 57/100 | 53/87 | 50/85 | 160/272 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 61% | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 44/57 | 36/53 | 39/50 | 119/160 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 68% | 78% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 28/43 | 16/34 | 17/35 | 61/112 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 47% | 49% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 9 | 7 | 21 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 9/14 | 7/15 | 21/39 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 64% | 47% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 4/10 | 6/7 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 40% | 86% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 6 | 1 | 8 | |
| Tiafoe | |||||
| R1 Giron |
R2 Murray Kubler |
R3 Schwartzman |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-60 6-4 6-3 | 7-63 7-5 7-62 | 7-67 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 38 | 33 | 103 | |
| pts | 102-87 | 143-125 | 118-101 | 363-313 | |
| Total points | 189 | 268 | 219 | 676 | |
| Winners | 49 | 51 | 34 | 134 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 36% | 29% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 16 | 15 | 9 | 40 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 | 3 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 58/104 | 65/126 | 53/111 | 176/341 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 52% | 48% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 49/58 | 51/65 | 34/53 | 134/176 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 78% | 64% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/46 | 34/61 | 29/58 | 87/165 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 56% | 50% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 3/15 | 8/18 | 14/39 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 20% | 44% | 36% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 | 10 | 27 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 8/10 | 4/10 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 80% | 40% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWWWLLW
LLWLWWWWWL Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Marin CilicCilic – Daniel EvansEvans (7-611 6-73 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (3-6 6-4 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (7-67 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-4 2-6 6-73 6-4 7-67) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (6-3 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (7-5 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-4 3-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – Richard GasquetGasquet (6-0 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Jeff WolfWolf (6-4 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Andy MurrayMurray (6-4 6-4 6-71 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Tommy PaulPaul (7-63 6-75 7-62 5-7 6-0) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Yibing WuWu (6-4 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Pedro CachinCachin (6-3 4-6 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Jack DraperDraper (6-3 4-6 6-5 ret.) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (6-1 6-1 3-6 7-65) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan (6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Marin CilicCilic – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (3-5) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Nick KyrgiosKyrgios (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Andrey RublevRublev (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Rafael NadalNadal (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (1-0) – H2H and prediction
