Pablo Carreno-Busta and Karen Khachanov will face off in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:00 pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 4 sets.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.46
Karen Khachanov -> 2.8
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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Karen Khachanov
This will be the 9th time that Pablo Carreno-Busta and Karen Khachanov face off. The head to head is 5-3 for Khachanov (see full H2H stats), 4-1 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Khachanov won 6-4 2-6 6-1 in the 2nd round in Rome back in May 2022.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40-26 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15, Pablo reached the 4th round after beating Dominic Thiem 7-5 6-1 5-7 6-3, Alexander Bublik 4-6 6-4 6-3 7-65 and Alex De Minaur 6-1 6-1 3-6 7-65.
In the 3rd round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against De Minaur (6-1 6-1 3-6 7-65). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 131 points vs De Minaur’s 109. Carreno-Busta was quite aggressive to blast 56 winners.
Regarding the service games, Carreno-Busta made 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Pablo Carreno-Busta was quite efficient on serve to win 79% (56/71) of his 1st serve and 57% (20/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Pablo broke De Minaur 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has dropped 3 set in this tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Carreno-Busta has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (400-221). 18-6 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Carreno-Busta has an aggregate 130-71 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the year was winning the title in in Montreal where he beat Hubert Hurkacz in the final 3-6 6-3 6-3.
Carreno-Busta has a composed 31-18 win-loss record in 2022, 18-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Karen Khachanov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32-24 | 13-11 | 9-6 | 2-4 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-22 | 14-12 | 8-4 | 14-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-18 | 18-10 | 10-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 36-25 | 17-11 | 9-7 | 6-5 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-24 | 17-9 | 5-6 | 8-6 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 31, Khachanov reached the 4th round after defeating Denis Kudla 3-6 6-1 6-2 6-2, Thiago Moura Monteiro 6-3 6-3 5-7 6-4 and Jack Draper 6-3 4-6 6-5 ret..
In the 3rd round, Karen defeated Draper (6-3 4-6 6-5 ret.). During the match Khachanov scored 109 points vs Draper’s 93. Khachanov was pretty aggressive to blast 47 winners.
About the serving games, Khachanov struck 14 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Karen Khachanov lost the serve 4 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Khachanov put 64% of his first serves in, winning 84% (47/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 34% (11/32) on the 2nd serve. Khachanov broke Draper 5 times after converting 33% of his break points (5/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Karen has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
Karen’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in Adelaide.
Karen has an overall 29-20 win-loss record in 2022, 15-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2018 and 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carreno-Busta | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 118 | 102 |
| Pts | 414-353 | 345-279 |
| Total Points | 767 | 624 |
| Winners | 179 | 147 |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% |
Both Carreno-Busta and Khachanov played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Pablo Carreno-Busta conceded 3 sets, while Karen Khachanov conceded 3 sets. Talking about their workload, Carreno-Busta and Khachanov have played the same amount of sets 12. However, Carreno-Busta played 16 games more than Khachanov. Carreno-Busta scored 179 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Khachanov recorded 147 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carreno-Busta | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 21 | 47 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 15.7 |
| 1st in | 248/361 | 178/291 |
| %1st in | 69% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 179/248 | 147/178 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 69/113 | 58/113 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 51% |
Carreno-Busta blasted 21 aces (7 per match). Khachanov blasted 47 aces (15.7 per match). Carreno-Busta won 72% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Khachanov won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carreno-Busta | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 16 |
| Converted | 16/37 | 16/38 |
| % Converted | 43% | 42% |
| Conceded | 25 | 22 |
| Saved | 18 | 15 |
| % Saved | 72% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 7 |
Carreno-Busta broke his opponents 16 times with a 43% conversion rate. Pablo surrendered his serve 7 times and he saved 72% of the break points that he conceded. The Russian broke his opponents 16 times with a 42% conversion rate. Khachanov conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carreno-Busta | |||||
| R1 Thiem | R2 Bublik | R3 De Minaur | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-1 5-7 6-3 | 4-6 6-4 6-3 7-65 | 6-1 6-1 3-6 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 40 | 42 | 36 | 118 | |
| pts | 137-114 | 146-130 | 131-109 | 414-353 | |
| Total points | 251 | 276 | 240 | 767 | |
| Winners | 51 | 72 | 56 | 179 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 49% | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 8 | 5 | 8 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 78/116 | 99/139 | 71/106 | 248/361 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 71% | 67% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 51/78 | 72/99 | 56/71 | 179/248 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 73% | 79% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 26/38 | 23/40 | 20/35 | 69/113 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 58% | 57% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | |
| Converted | 8/19 | 3/8 | 5/10 | 16/37 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 38% | 50% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 12 | 4 | 25 | |
| Saved | 5/9 | 10/12 | 3/4 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 56% | 83% | 75% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| Khachanov | |||||
| R1 Kudla | R2 Moura Monteiro | R3 Draper | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-1 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 5-7 6-4 | 6-3 4-6 6-5 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 40 | 30 | 102 | |
| pts | 113-81 | 123-105 | 109-93 | 345-279 | |
| Total points | 194 | 228 | 202 | 624 | |
| Winners | 46 | 54 | 47 | 147 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 44% | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 16 | 17 | 14 | 47 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 56/95 | 66/108 | 56/88 | 178/291 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 61% | 64% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 46/56 | 54/66 | 47/56 | 147/178 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 82% | 84% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 23/39 | 24/42 | 11/32 | 58/113 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 57% | 34% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | |
| Converted | 6/8 | 5/15 | 5/15 | 16/38 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 33% | 33% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 6 | 8 | 22 | |
| Saved | 7/8 | 4/6 | 4/8 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 88% | 67% | 50% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |
Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (7-5 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (6-1 6-1 3-6 7-65) – See score progression
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Jeff WolfWolf (6-4 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Pedro CachinCachin (6-3 4-6 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Andy MurrayMurray (6-4 6-4 6-71 6-3) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Jack DraperDraper (6-3 4-6 6-5 ret.) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan (6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Tommy PaulPaul (7-63 6-75 7-62 5-7 6-0) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Yibing WuWu (6-4 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (7-5 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Richard GasquetGasquet – Rafael NadalNadal (1-17) – H2H and prediction
- Marin CilicCilic – Daniel EvansEvans (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (3-5) – H2H and prediction
- Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Nick KyrgiosKyrgios (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Andrey RublevRublev (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction