Matteo Berrettini and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will square off in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:00 am on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Berrettini who should win in 4 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matteo Berrettini is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Berrettini -> 1.37
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -> 3.2
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Prediction and head to head Matteo Berrettini vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
This will be the 2nd time that Matteo Berrettini and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Davidovich Fokina (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Davidovich Fokina won 7-5 6-3 in the 2nd round in Monte carlo back in 2021.
Highlights Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Berrettini – Monte carlo 13-April-2021
Matteo Berrettini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6-6 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 36-13 | 7-6 | 15-1 | 8-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 14-12 | 9-10 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-12 | 15-9 | 4-2 | 4-1 | 9-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-12 | 14-5 | 13-4 | 3-2 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Matteo got to the 4th round after defeating Nicolas Jarry 6-2 6-3 6-3, Hugo Grenier 2-6 6-1 7-64 7-67 and Andy Murray 6-4 6-4 6-71 6-3.
In the 3rd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Murray (6-4 6-4 6-71 6-3). During the match, Berrettini scored 135 points vs Murray’s 118. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 67 winners.
Talking about the service games, Berrettini managed to score 18 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Matteo Berrettini was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 74% (67/90) of his 1st serve and 51% (21/41) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Italian broke Murray 5 times after converting 33% of his break points (5/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Matteo has surrendered 2 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Berrettini has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 67% of his matches (272-133). 11-7 on hard in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Berrettini has an overall117-57 match record in the last 9 years on hard.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in in Stuttgart where he defeated Andy Murray in the final 6-4 5-7 6-3 and in in London where he defeated Filip Krajinovic in the final 7-5 6-4.
The Italian has a composed 24-9 win-loss record in 2022, 11-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13-7 | 12-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-22 | 13-12 | 2-5 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-28 | 18-11 | 9-8 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-26 | 7-9 | 11-8 | 0-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-25 | 4-6 | 16-7 | 9-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 39, Alejandro got to the 4th round after defeating Yoshihito Nishioka 6-3 7-5 6-3, Marton Fucsovics 7-63 5-7 3-6 6-0 7-63 and Daniel Elahi Galan 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Davidovich Fokina defeated Elahi Galan Riveros (6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4). During the match Davidovich Fokina scored 143 points vs Elahi Galan Riveros’s 134. Davidovich Fokina was pretty aggressive to blast 63 winners.
About the serving games, Davidovich Fokina made 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina lost the serve 4 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Davidovich Fokina put 66% of his first serves in, winning 64% (63/99) of the points behind his 1st serve and 57% (29/51) on the 2nd serve. Alejandro broke Elahi Galan Riveros 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Davidovich Fokina has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Davidovich Fokina’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Carlo.
Davidovich Fokina has a composed 21-21 win-loss record in 2022, 7-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Berrettini | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 109 | 125 |
| Pts | 361-300 | 428-379 |
| Total Points | 661 | 807 |
| Winners | 155 | 186 |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% |
Both Berrettini and Davidovich Fokina played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Matteo Berrettini dropped 2 sets, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina lost 3 sets. Berrettini has played 1 set(s) less than Davidovich Fokina (11 vs 12). Therefore, Berrettini played 16 games less than Davidovich Fokina. Matteo scored 155 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard made 186 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Berrettini | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 45 | 27 |
| Avg per match | 15 | 9 |
| 1st in | 191/318 | 260/396 |
| %1st in | 60% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 155/191 | 186/260 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 77/127 | 69/136 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 51% |
Berrettini recorded 45 aces (15 per match). Davidovich Fokina managed to score 27 aces (9 per match). Berrettini won 81% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Davidovich Fokina won 72% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Berrettini | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 19 |
| Converted | 12/33 | 19/40 |
| % Converted | 36% | 48% |
| Conceded | 8 | 26 |
| Saved | 4 | 14 |
| % Saved | 50% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 12 |
Berrettini broke his opponents 12 times with a 36% conversion rate. Berrettini lost his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Davidovich Fokina broke his opponents 19 times with a 48% conversion rate. Davidovich Fokina conceded his serve 12 times and he saved 54% of the break points that he conceded.
| Berrettini | |||||
| R1 Jarry |
R2 Grenier |
R3 Murray |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-3 6-3 | 2-6 6-1 7-64 7-67 | 6-4 6-4 6-71 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 41 | 42 | 109 | |
| pts | 87-62 | 139-120 | 135-118 | 361-300 | |
| Total points | 149 | 259 | 253 | 661 | |
| Winners | 39 | 49 | 67 | 155 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 35% | 50% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 17 | 18 | 45 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 45/70 | 56/117 | 90/131 | 191/318 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 48% | 69% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 39/45 | 49/56 | 67/90 | 155/191 | |
| % 1st pts | 87% | 88% | 74% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/25 | 41/61 | 21/41 | 77/127 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 67% | 51% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 2/8 | 5/15 | 12/33 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 25% | 33% | 36% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 4 | |
| Saved % | – | 50% | 50% | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Davidovich Fokina | |||||
| R1 Nishioka |
R2 Fucsovics |
R3 Elahi Galan Riveros |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-5 6-3 | 7-63 5-7 3-6 6-0 7-63 | 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 53 | 42 | 125 | |
| pts | 100-80 | 185-165 | 143-134 | 428-379 | |
| Total points | 180 | 350 | 277 | 807 | |
| Winners | 38 | 85 | 63 | 186 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 46% | 44% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 9 | 12 | 6 | 27 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 5 | 2 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 47/86 | 114/160 | 99/150 | 260/396 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 71% | 66% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 38/47 | 85/114 | 63/99 | 186/260 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 75% | 64% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/39 | 24/46 | 29/51 | 69/136 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 52% | 57% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 8 | 5 | 6 | 19 | |
| Converted | 8/12 | 5/15 | 6/13 | 19/40 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 33% | 46% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26 | |
| Saved | 4/8 | 4/8 | 6/10 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | 60% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWLWWLL
LLWWWWLWWW Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (7-5 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Andy MurrayMurray (6-4 6-4 6-71 6-3) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Jack DraperDraper (6-3 4-6 6-5 ret.) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan (6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Tommy PaulPaul (7-63 6-75 7-62 5-7 6-0) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Yibing WuWu (6-4 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (6-1 6-1 3-6 7-65) – See score progression
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Jeff WolfWolf (6-4 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Pedro CachinCachin (6-3 4-6 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (7-5 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Richard GasquetGasquet – Rafael NadalNadal (1-17) – H2H and prediction
- Marin CilicCilic – Daniel EvansEvans (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (3-5) – H2H and prediction
- Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Nick KyrgiosKyrgios (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Andrey RublevRublev (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
