Lorenzo Musetti and Ilya Ivashka will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 5:00 pm on Court 5. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ilya Ivashka who should win in 5 sets.
As per the initial odds, Ilya Ivashka is the pick to win this match.
Ilya Ivashka -> 1.61
Lorenzo Musetti -> 2.375
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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Ilya Ivashka
This will be the 2nd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Ilya Ivashka clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Musetti (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Musetti won 2-6 6-3 7-5 in the 1st round in Madrid back in May 2022.
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43-25 | 12-10 | 18-10 | 1-2 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 30-15 | 6-4 | 20-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 30 (career-high), Musetti reached the 3rd round after defeating David Goffin 3-6 7-5 6-4 3-6 7-69 and Gijs Brouwer 6-71 6-3 6-4 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Brouwer, The Italian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-71 6-3 6-4 6-2). During the match, Musetti scored 128 points vs Brouwer’s 105. Lorenzo was pretty aggressive to blast 53 winners.
Regarding the service games, Musetti scored 4 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Lorenzo Musetti was quite effective on serve to win 71% (53/75) of his 1st serve and 67% (33/49) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Musetti broke Brouwer 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Musetti has conceded 3 set in this competition to win 51% of the points he played.
Musetti has a winning match record in the last 5 years having won 58% of his matches (129-92). 7-9 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Musetti has an aggregate23-23 match record in the last 5 years on hard.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in in Hamburg where he beat Carlos Alcaraz in the final 6-4 6-7(6) 6-4.
Lorenzo has a compiled 31-20 win-loss record in 2022, 7-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Ilya Ivashka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 12-24 | 5-12 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-24 | 8-6 | 5-7 | 6-8 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-20 | 14-6 | 13-5 | 6-4 | 10-5 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-13 | 12-4 | 3-5 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 3-1 |
Ranked no. 73, Ilya got to the 3rd round after beating Sam Querrey 4-6 6-4 7-68 6-3 and Hubert Hurkacz 6-4 4-6 7-65 6-3.
In the 2nd round, The Belarussian defeated Hurkacz (6-4 4-6 7-65 6-3).During the match Ivashka scored less points (1) than Hurkacz. In fact, the world no. 30 won 131 points vs Hurkacz’s. That means that Ivashka was more focused during the important points. The Belarussian was extremely aggressive to blast 62 winners.
Talking about serving, Ivashka managed to score 2 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Ilya Ivashka was quite efficient on serve to win 74% (62/84) of his 1st serve and 53% (30/57) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Ilya broke Hurkacz 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ivashka has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
Ivashka’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Atlanta.
Ilya has a compiled 19-18 win-loss record in 2022, 7-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Musetti | Ivashka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 93 | 84 |
| Pts | 301-292 | 278-258 |
| Total Points | 593 | 536 |
| Winners | 122 | 118 |
| %Winners | 41% | 42% |
Both Musetti and Ivashka played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Lorenzo Musetti dropped 3 sets, while Ilya Ivashka surrendered 2 sets. Musetti has played 1 set more than Ivashka (9 vs 8). Therefore, Musetti played 9 games more than Ivashka. Lorenzo scored 122 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Belarussian managed to score 118 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Musetti | Ivashka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 6 | 7.5 |
| 1st in | 182/302 | 158/269 |
| %1st in | 60% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 122/182 | 118/158 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 66/120 | 61/111 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 55% |
Musetti fired 12 aces (6 per match). Ivashka fired 15 aces (7.5 per match). Musetti won 67% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Ivashka won 75% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Musetti | Ivashka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 8 |
| Converted | 12/28 | 8/23 |
| % Converted | 43% | 35% |
| Conceded | 27 | 21 |
| Saved | 18 | 15 |
| % Saved | 67% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 6 |
The Italian broke his opponents 12 times with a 43% conversion rate. Lorenzo dropped his serve 9 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Ilya broke his opponents 8 times with a 35% conversion rate. Ivashka conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Musetti | ||||
| R1 Goffin |
R2 Brouwer |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-5 6-4 3-6 7-69 | 6-71 6-3 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 53 | 40 | 93 | |
| pts | 173-187 | 128-105 | 301-292 | |
| Total points | 360 | 233 | 593 | |
| Winners | 69 | 53 | 122 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 8 | 4 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 5 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 107/178 | 75/124 | 182/302 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 60% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 69/107 | 53/75 | 122/182 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 71% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 33/71 | 33/49 | 66/120 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 67% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 7 | 5 | 12 | |
| Converted | 7/19 | 5/9 | 12/28 | |
| Converted % | 37% | 56% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 18 | 9 | 27 | |
| Saved | 10/18 | 8/9 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 56% | 89% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 8 | 1 | 9 | |
| Ivashka | ||||
| R1 Querrey |
R2 Hurkacz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 7-68 6-3 | 6-4 4-6 7-65 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 42 | 42 | 84 | |
| pts | 147-126 | 131-132 | 278-258 | |
| Total points | 273 | 263 | 536 | |
| Winners | 56 | 62 | 118 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 47% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 13 | 2 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 74/128 | 84/141 | 158/269 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 60% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 56/74 | 62/84 | 118/158 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 74% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 31/54 | 30/57 | 61/111 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 53% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 5/16 | 3/7 | 8/23 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 43% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 9 | 21 | |
| Saved | 8/12 | 7/9 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 78% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWLWWLWW
LL Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (7-63 7-5 7-66) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – Fabio FogniniFognini (2-6 6-4 6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Christopher EubanksEubanks (6-4 7-68 6-2) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-4 4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (6-3 6-0 6-4) – See score progression
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Jason Murray KublerMurray Kubler (7-63 7-5 7-62) – See score progression
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Borna CoricCoric (6-4 7-610 6-1) – See score progression
- Daniel EvansEvans – James DuckworthDuckworth (6-3 6-2 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Federico CoriaCoria (6-2 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Gijs BrouwerBrouwer (6-71 6-3 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Richard GasquetGasquet – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (6-2 6-4 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – John IsnerIsner (w/o) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Joao SousaSousa (6-4 6-4 7-64) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (7-65 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas (6-3 7-64 6-3) – See score progression
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 4-6 7-65 6-3) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alexander BublikBublik (4-6 6-4 6-3 7-65) – See score progression
- Jeff WolfWolf – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (4-6 7-5 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Tim Van RijthovenVan Rijthoven (6-74 6-4 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-4 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-0 3-6 4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Hugo GrenierGrenier (2-6 6-1 7-64 7-67) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (6-2 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-4 1-6 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-3 2-6 3-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro (6-3 6-3 5-7 6-4) – See score progression
- Yibing WuWu – Nuno BorgesBorges (6-73 7-64 4-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Andy MurrayMurray – Emilio NavaNava (5-7 6-3 6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Pedro CachinCachin – Brandon HoltHolt (1-6 2-6 6-1 7-61 7-66) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Cristian GarinGarin (6-3 6-0 4-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Benjamin BonziBonzi (7-63 6-4 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (7-63 5-7 3-6 6-0 7-63) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Yibing WuWu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Jeff WolfWolf (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Jack DraperDraper (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Andy MurrayMurray – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Pedro CachinCachin – Corentin MoutetMoutet (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Ilya IvashkaIvashka – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marin CilicCilic – Daniel EvansEvans (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Andrey RublevRublev (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Richard GasquetGasquet – Rafael NadalNadal (1-17) – H2H and prediction
