Aryna Sabalenka and Clara Burel will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the U.S. Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 5:00 pm on Grandstand. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.16
Clara Burel -> 5.55
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Clara Burel
There is no head to head record between Aryna Sabalenka and Clara Burel since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63-12 | 35-6 | 17-3 | 4-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, the Belarussian reached the 3rd round after beating Catherine Harrison 6-1 6-3 and Kaia Kanepi 2-6 7-68 6-4.
In the 2nd round against Kanepi, The Belarussian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 7-68 6-4).During the match, Sabalenka scored less points (7) than Kanepi. In fact, the world no. 6 won 97 points vs Kanepi’s. That means that Sabalenka was more focused during the important points. The Belarussian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka scored 3 aces and she was not very consistent on her 2nd serve to score 11 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 63% of her first serves in, winning 64% (46/72) of the points behind her 1st serve and 40% (17/42) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Kanepi 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 51% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 7 years having won 65% of her matches (256-135). 13-10 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a composed147-71 win-loss record in the last 7 years on hard.
Sabalenka’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch.
Aryna has an overall 26-17 win-loss record in 2022, 13-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Clara Burel
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-29 | 13-14 | 7-9 | 3-2 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-18 | 11-5 | 17-9 | 9-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 22-29 | 7-7 | 11-17 | 4-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 44-20 | 7-7 | 18-8 | 15-4 | 4-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 131, Burel got to the 3rd round after beating Seone Mendez 6-2 3-1 ret., Arianne Hartono 4-6 6-3 6-4, Misaki Doi 2-6 6-4 7-610, Elena Rybakina 6-4 6-4 and Alison Van Uytvanck 6-4 4-6 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The French player defeated Van Uytvanck (6-4 4-6 6-4). During the match Burel scored 95 points vs Van Uytvanck’s 90. Burel was quite aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Burel recorded 2 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Clara Burel lost the serve 6 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Burel put 51% of her first serves in, winning 60% (29/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 49% (23/47) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Van Uytvanck 7 times after converting 54% of her break points (7/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Clara started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points she played.
Clara has a compiled 14-20 win-loss record in 2022, 7-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Burel |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 14 |
| Tot Games | 47 | 122 |
| Pts | 159-151 | 434-400 |
| Total Points | 310 | 834 |
| Winners | 68 | 152 |
| %Winners | 43% | 35% |
Sabalenka played 2 matches while Burel competed in 5 matches. Burel started her run from the qualifications while Sabalenka had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 1 set, while Clara Burel surrendered 3 sets. Sabalenka has played 9 set(s) less than Burel (5 vs 14). Therefore, Sabalenka played 75 games less than Burel. The Belarussian scored 68 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Clara bagged 152 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Burel |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 23 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 4.6 |
| 1st in | 107/169 | 219/458 |
| %1st in | 63% | 48% |
| 1st pts | 68/107 | 152/219 |
| %1st pts | 64% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 26/62 | 118/239 |
| %2nd pts | 42% | 49% |
Sabalenka struck 6 aces (3 per match). Burel scored 23 aces (4.6 per match). Sabalenka won 64% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 42% of the points. On the other side, Burel won 69% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Burel |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 21 |
| Converted | 10/19 | 21/36 |
| % Converted | 53% | 58% |
| Conceded | 13 | 47 |
| Saved | 6 | 32 |
| % Saved | 46% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 15 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 10 times with a 53% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 46% of the break points that she conceded. Clara broke her opponents 21 times with a 58% conversion rate. Clara conceded her serve 15 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||
| R1 Harrison | R2 Kanepi | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 2-6 7-68 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 31 | 47 | |
| pts | 62-47 | 97-104 | 159-151 | |
| Total points | 109 | 201 | 310 | |
| Winners | 22 | 46 | 68 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 47% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 11 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 35/55 | 72/114 | 107/169 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 63% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 22/35 | 46/72 | 68/107 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 64% | 64% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/20 | 17/42 | 26/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 40% | 42% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 4/6 | 10/19 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 67% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 9 | 13 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 4/9 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 44% | 47% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| Burel | |||||||
| Q1 Mendez | Q2 Hartono | Q3 Doi | R1 Rybakina | R2 Van Uytvanck | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 3-1 ret. | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | 2-6 6-4 7-610 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-4 4-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 12 | 29 | 31 | 20 | 30 | 122 | |
| pts | 54-39 | 91-82 | 123-127 | 71-62 | 95-90 | 434-400 | |
| Total points | 93 | 173 | 250 | 133 | 185 | 834 | |
| Winners | 24 | 33 | 41 | 25 | 29 | 152 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 36% | 33% | 35% | 31% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 2 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 37 | |
| 1st in | 27/56 | 45/97 | 65/134 | 34/76 | 48/95 | 219/458 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 46% | 49% | 45% | 51% | 48% | |
| 1st pts | 24/27 | 33/45 | 41/65 | 25/34 | 29/48 | 152/219 | |
| % 1st pts | 89% | 73% | 63% | 74% | 60% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/29 | 31/52 | 30/69 | 23/42 | 23/47 | 118/239 | |
| % 2nd pts | 38% | 60% | 43% | 55% | 49% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 21 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 3/4 | 5/12 | 3/3 | 7/13 | 21/36 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 75% | 42% | 100% | 54% | 58% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 13 | 47 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 2/4 | 12/18 | 8/9 | 7/13 | 32 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | 67% | 89% | 54% | 180% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 | |
Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Shelby RogersRogers (4-6 6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Dalma GalfiGalfi (6-2 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
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- Karolina PliskovaPliskova – Belinda BencicBencic (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alize CornetCornet – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Clara BurelBurel – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Rebecca MarinoMarino – Shuai ZhangZhang (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Cori GauffGauff (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu – Caroline GarciaGarcia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alison RiskeRiske – Xiyu WangWang (1-0) – H2H and prediction
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