Cori Gauff and Madison Keys will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 3:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Cori Gauff who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Cori Gauff is the pick to win this match.
Cori Gauff -> 1.69
Madison Keys -> 2.22

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Cori Gauff vs. Madison Keys

This will be the 2nd time that Cori Gauff and Madison Keys play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Keys won 3-6 6-2 7-5 in the semifinal in Adelaide back in January 2022.

Highlights Madison Keys vs Cori Gauff – Adelaide 14-January-2022

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
3
High
2
LWLWWWWWLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 48-16 29-9 18-3 1-2 0-2 0-0
2024 54-18 31-10 14-5 4-1 5-2 0-0
2023 51-16 40-9 7-4 0-0 4-3 0-0
2022 38-23 23-16 10-4 0-1 5-2 0-0
2021 36-16 16-10 16-4 0-0 4-2 0-0

Ranked no. 12, the American reached the 3rd round after defeating Leolia Jeanjean 6-2 6-3 and Elena Gabriela Ruse 6-2 7-64.

In the 2nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Gabriela Ruse (6-2 7-64). During the match, Gauff scored 76 points vs Gabriela Ruse’s 59. Gauff was pretty aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Regarding the service games, Gauff made 6 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Cori Gauff lost the serve twice and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Gauff put 67% of her first serves in, winning 77% (36/47) of the points behind her 1st serve and 35% (8/23) on the 2nd serve. Gauff broke Gabriela Ruse 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Gauff hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to conquer 57% of the points she played.

Gauff has a solid record in the last 6 years having won 67% of her matches (118-59). 17-10 on hard in 2022. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Gauff has an aggregate53-33 win-loss record in the last 6 years on hard.

The American’s best result of the current year was reaching the final at the French Open .

The American has a compiled 32-16 win-loss record in 2022, 17-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

U.S. Open
Gauff's Record

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
7
High
5
LLLLWWLWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 37-15 24-6 9-4 0-2 4-3 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0

Ranked no. 20, Keys got to the 3rd round after beating Dayana Yastremska 7-63 6-3 and Camila Giorgi 6-4 5-7 7-66.

In the 2nd round, Madison defeated Giorgi (6-4 5-7 7-66). During the match Keys scored 115 points vs Giorgi’s 104. The American was very aggressive to blast 51 winners.

Talking about serving, Keys scored 8 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 4 times and she saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 71% of her first serves in, winning 65% (51/79) of the points behind her 1st serve and 63% (20/32) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Giorgi 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in in Adelaide where she beat Alison Riske in the final 6-1 6-2.

Keys has an overall 26-14 win-loss record in 2022, 21-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2017. See her history.

U.S. Open
Keys's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

C.Gauff
M.Keys
2h:56
2h:56
Time on court​
4h:05
4h:05
1h:36
1h:36
Last match​
!
2h:22
2h:22
2
2
Match played
2
2
38
38
Games Played​
57
57
4
4
Set played​​
5
5
141
141
Total points​
198
198
70.5
70.5
Avg point​
99
99
57
57
Winners
95
95
28.5
28.5
Avg Winners​
47.5
47.5
40%
40%
Ratio winners
48%
48%
-- Serve --
14
14
Aces
12
12
7
7
Avg Aces
6
6
11
11
Double Faults
7
7
!
5.5
5.5
Avg Double Faults
3.5
3.5
57/70
57/70
1st won total​
95/144
95/144
!
81%
81%
1st won %
66%
66%
19/39
19/39
2nd won total​
30/57
30/57
49%
49%
2nd won %
53%
53%
-- Break Points --
8/17
8/17
BP won
7/12
7/12
4/8.5
4/8.5
Avg BP won
3.5/6
3.5/6
47%
47%
Won
!
58%
58%
6
6
Conceded
22
22
3
3
Avg Conceded
11
11
2
2
Broken
6
6
1
1
Avg Broken
3
3
4
4
Saved
16
16

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Gauff Keys
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 4 5
Tot Games 38 57
Pts 141-105 198-177
Total Points 246 375
Winners 57 95
%Winners 40% 48%

Both Gauff and Keys played 2 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys surrendered 1 set while Cori Gauff hasn’t dropped a set so far. Gauff has played 1 set(s) less than Keys (4 vs 5). Therefore, Gauff played 19 games less than Keys. Cori scored 57 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The American recorded 95 winners (48%).

Serve Performance

Serve Gauff Keys
Aces 14 12
Avg per match 7 6
1st in 70/109 144/201
%1st in 64% 72%
1st pts 57/70 95/144
%1st pts 81% 66%
2nd pts 19/39 30/57
%2nd pts 49% 53%

Gauff managed to score 14 aces (7 per match). Keys scored 12 aces (6 per match). Gauff won 81% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 66% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Gauff Keys
Won 8 7
Converted 8/17 7/12
% Converted 47% 58%
Conceded 6 22
Saved 4 16
% Saved 67% 73%
Times Broken 2 6

Cori broke her opponents 8 times with a 47% conversion rate. Cori lost her serve twice and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Keys broke her opponents 7 times with a 58% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 73% of the break points that she conceded.

Gauff
R1
Jeanjean
R2
Gabriela Ruse
Total
Score 6-2 6-3 6-2 7-64
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 17 21 38
pts 65-46 76-59 141-105
Total points 111 135 246
Winners 21 36 57
%Winners 32% 47% 40%
SERVE
Aces 8 6 14
Double Faults 3 8 11
1st in 23/39 47/70 70/109
% 1st in 59% 67% 64%
1st pts 21/23 36/47 57/70
% 1st pts 91% 77% 81%
2nd pts 11/16 8/23 19/39
% 2nd pts 69% 35% 49%
Breaks
Won 4 4 8
Converted 4/12 4/5 8/17
Converted % 33% 80% 47%
Conceded 0 6 6
Saved 0/0 4/6 4
Saved % 67% 34%
Times Broken 0 2 2
Keys
R1
Yastremska
R2
Giorgi
Total
Score 7-63 6-3 6-4 5-7 7-66
Tot Set 2 3 5
Tot Games 22 35 57
pts 83-73 115-104 198-177
Total points 156 219 375
Winners 44 51 95
%Winners 53% 44% 48%
SERVE
Aces 4 8 12
Double Faults 4 3 7
1st in 65/90 79/111 144/201
% 1st in 72% 71% 72%
1st pts 44/65 51/79 95/144
% 1st pts 68% 65% 66%
2nd pts 10/25 20/32 30/57
% 2nd pts 40% 63% 53%
Breaks
Won 3 4 7
Converted 3/6 4/6 7/12
Converted % 50% 67% 58%
Conceded 6 16 22
Saved 4/6 12/16 16
Saved % 67% 75% 71%
Times Broken 2 4 6

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

Upcoming matches in the draw