H2H, PREDICTION Rafael Nadal vs Fabio Fognini | U.S. Open odds, preview, pick

PREVIEW. New York. Nadal and Fognini will square off in the 2nd round of the U.S. Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their next match

Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini

Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will face off in the 2nd round of the U.S. Open for the 18th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 9:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.084
Fabio Fognini -> 7.7

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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini

This will be the 18th time that Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini square off. The head to head is 13-4 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 7-1 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Nadal won 6-3 6-4 6-2 in the 4th round in at the Australian Open back in 2021.

Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Fabio Fognini – Australian Open 15-February-2021

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
153
High
1
LLWLWWWWLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 12-8 2-1 10-6 0-1 0-0 0-0
2023 1-3 1-3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2022 39-8 23-3 10-2 1-3 5-0 0-0
2021 24-5 5-2 19-3 0-0 0-0 0-0
2020 27-7 13-3 9-1 5-3 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 3, the Spaniard reached the 2nd round after beating Rinky Hijikata 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-3.

In the 1st round against Hijikata, Nadal recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-2 6-3 6-3). During the match, Nadal scored 119 points vs Hijikata’s 95. Rafael was pretty aggressive to blast 44 winners.

Regarding the service games, Nadal blasted 9 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Rafael Nadal was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 77% (44/57) of his 1st serve and 65% (28/43) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Rafael broke Hijikata 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).

Nadal has a terrific win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (481-91). 21-2 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Nadal has an overall 197-45 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in in Melbourne where he overcame Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5 and in in Acapulco where he overcame Cameron Norrie in the final 6-4 6-4 and in at the French Open where he defeated Casper Ruud in the final 6-3 6-3 6-0.

Rafael has a compiled 36-4 win-loss record in 2022, 21-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Nadal
U.S. Open
Nadal's Record

Fabio Fognini

Fabio Fognini
Fabio Fognini

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
93
High
9
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 35-28 7-10 23-12 2-4 3-2 0-0
2023 28-23 0-8 23-12 5-3 0-0 0-0
2022 24-26 10-9 12-12 2-4 0-1 0-0
2021 22-24 12-12 7-8 0-2 3-2 0-0

Ranked no. 60, the Italian got to the 2nd round after beating Aslan Karatsev 1-6 5-7 6-4 6-1 6-4.

In the 1st round, Fabio had a tough win against Karatsev to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (1-6 5-7 6-4 6-1 6-4). During the match Fognini and Karatsev scored the same amount of points (146). However, the world no. 3 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Fognini was pretty aggressive to blast 64 winners.

About the serving games, Fognini managed to score 13 aces and he was not very consistent on his 2nd serve to score 15 double faults. Fabio Fognini lost the serve 6 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Fognini put 56% of his first serves in, winning 71% (64/90) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (32/71) on the 2nd serve. Fabio broke Karatsev 7 times after converting 64% of his break points (7/11).

Fognini’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Rio de Janeiro and Belgrade.

Fognini has an aggregate 21-20 win-loss record in 2022, 9-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2015. See his history.

Fognini
U.S. Open
Fognini's Record
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H2H Performance in the tournament

R.Nadal
F.Fognini
3h:08
3h:08
Time on court​
3h:34
3h:34
!
3h:08
3h:08
Last match​
!
3h:34
3h:34
1
1
Match played
1
1
36
36
Games Played​
46
46
4
4
Set played​​
5
5
119
119
Total points​
146
146
119
119
Avg point​
146
146
44
44
Winners
64
64
44
44
Avg Winners​
64
64
37%
37%
Ratio winners
44%
44%
-- Serve --
9
9
Aces
13
13
9
9
Avg Aces
!
13
13
2
2
Double Faults
15
15
2
2
Avg Double Faults
!
15
15
44/57
44/57
1st won total​
64/90
64/90
!
77%
77%
1st won %
!
71%
71%
28/43
28/43
2nd won total​
32/71
32/71
!
65%
65%
2nd won %
45%
45%
-- Break Points --
5/10
5/10
BP won
7/11
7/11
5/10
5/10
Avg BP won
7/11
7/11
50%
50%
Won
!
64%
64%
4
4
Conceded
13
13
4
4
Avg Conceded
13
13
1
1
Broken
6
6
1
1
Avg Broken
!
6
6
3
3
Saved
7
7

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Nadal Fognini
Match played 1 1
Tot Set 4 5
Tot Games 36 46
Pts 119-95 146-146
Total Points 214 292
Winners 44 64
%Winners 37% 44%

Both Nadal and Fognini played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Rafael Nadal surrendered 1 set, while Fabio Fognini dropped 2 sets. Nadal has played 1 set(s) less than Fognini (4 vs 5). Therefore, Nadal played 10 games less than Fognini. Nadal scored 44 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Fognini blasted 64 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve Nadal Fognini
Aces 9 13
Avg per match 9 13
1st in 57/100 90/161
%1st in 57% 56%
1st pts 44/57 64/90
%1st pts 77% 71%
2nd pts 28/43 32/71
%2nd pts 65% 45%

Nadal made 9 aces . Fognini managed to score 13 aces . Nadal won 77% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 65% of the points. On the other side, Fognini won 71% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 45% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Nadal Fognini
Won 5 7
Converted 5/10 7/11
% Converted 50% 64%
Conceded 4 13
Saved 3 7
% Saved 75% 54%
Times Broken 1 6

The Spaniard broke his opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. Nadal dropped his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Fabio broke his opponent 7 times with a 64% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 54% of the break points that he conceded.

Nadal
R1
Hijikata
Total
Score 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-3
Tot Set 4 4
Tot Games 36 36
pts 119-95 119-95
Total points 214 214
Winners 44 44
%Winners 37% 37%
SERVE
Aces 9 9
Double Faults 2 2
1st in 57/100 57/100
% 1st in 57% 57%
1st pts 44/57 44/57
% 1st pts 77% 77%
2nd pts 28/43 28/43
% 2nd pts 65% 65%
Breaks
Won 5 5
Converted 5/10 5/10
Converted % 50% 50%
Conceded 4 4
Saved 3/4 3
Saved % 75% 75%
Times Broken 1 1
Fognini
R1
Karatsev
Total
Score 1-6 5-7 6-4 6-1 6-4
Tot Set 5 5
Tot Games 46 46
pts 146-146 146-146
Total points 292 292
Winners 64 64
%Winners 44% 44%
SERVE
Aces 13 13
Double Faults 15 15
1st in 90/161 90/161
% 1st in 56% 56%
1st pts 64/90 64/90
% 1st pts 71% 71%
2nd pts 32/71 32/71
% 2nd pts 45% 45%
Breaks
Won 7 7
Converted 7/11 7/11
Converted % 64% 64%
Conceded 13 13
Saved 7/13 7
Saved % 54% 54%
Times Broken 6 6

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Nadal
Fognini
L
2025 2024 2023
0 - 0
0 - 1

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

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