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Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will face off in the 2nd round of the U.S. Open for the 18th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 9:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.084
Fabio Fognini -> 7.7
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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini
This will be the 18th time that Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini square off. The head to head is 13-4 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 7-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Nadal won 6-3 6-4 6-2 in the 4th round in at the Australian Open back in 2021.
Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Fabio Fognini – Australian Open 15-February-2021
Rafael Nadal
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 12-8 | 2-1 | 10-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, the Spaniard reached the 2nd round after beating Rinky Hijikata 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-3.
In the 1st round against Hijikata, Nadal recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-2 6-3 6-3). During the match, Nadal scored 119 points vs Hijikata’s 95. Rafael was pretty aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Regarding the service games, Nadal blasted 9 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Rafael Nadal was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 77% (44/57) of his 1st serve and 65% (28/43) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Rafael broke Hijikata 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Nadal has a terrific win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (481-91). 21-2 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Nadal has an overall 197-45 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in in Melbourne where he overcame Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5 and in in Acapulco where he overcame Cameron Norrie in the final 6-4 6-4 and in at the French Open where he defeated Casper Ruud in the final 6-3 6-3 6-0.
Rafael has a compiled 36-4 win-loss record in 2022, 21-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Fabio Fognini
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 35-28 | 7-10 | 23-12 | 2-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
2023 | 28-23 | 0-8 | 23-12 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2022 | 24-26 | 10-9 | 12-12 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 22-24 | 12-12 | 7-8 | 0-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 60, the Italian got to the 2nd round after beating Aslan Karatsev 1-6 5-7 6-4 6-1 6-4.
In the 1st round, Fabio had a tough win against Karatsev to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (1-6 5-7 6-4 6-1 6-4). During the match Fognini and Karatsev scored the same amount of points (146). However, the world no. 3 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Fognini was pretty aggressive to blast 64 winners.
About the serving games, Fognini managed to score 13 aces and he was not very consistent on his 2nd serve to score 15 double faults. Fabio Fognini lost the serve 6 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Fognini put 56% of his first serves in, winning 71% (64/90) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (32/71) on the 2nd serve. Fabio broke Karatsev 7 times after converting 64% of his break points (7/11).
Fognini’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Rio de Janeiro and Belgrade.
Fognini has an aggregate 21-20 win-loss record in 2022, 9-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2015. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Nadal | Fognini |
---|---|---|
Match played | 1 | 1 |
Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
Tot Games | 36 | 46 |
Pts | 119-95 | 146-146 |
Total Points | 214 | 292 |
Winners | 44 | 64 |
%Winners | 37% | 44% |
Both Nadal and Fognini played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Rafael Nadal surrendered 1 set, while Fabio Fognini dropped 2 sets. Nadal has played 1 set(s) less than Fognini (4 vs 5). Therefore, Nadal played 10 games less than Fognini. Nadal scored 44 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Fognini blasted 64 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Nadal | Fognini |
---|---|---|
Aces | 9 | 13 |
Avg per match | 9 | 13 |
1st in | 57/100 | 90/161 |
%1st in | 57% | 56% |
1st pts | 44/57 | 64/90 |
%1st pts | 77% | 71% |
2nd pts | 28/43 | 32/71 |
%2nd pts | 65% | 45% |
Nadal made 9 aces . Fognini managed to score 13 aces . Nadal won 77% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 65% of the points. On the other side, Fognini won 71% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Nadal | Fognini |
---|---|---|
Won | 5 | 7 |
Converted | 5/10 | 7/11 |
% Converted | 50% | 64% |
Conceded | 4 | 13 |
Saved | 3 | 7 |
% Saved | 75% | 54% |
Times Broken | 1 | 6 |
The Spaniard broke his opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. Nadal dropped his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Fabio broke his opponent 7 times with a 64% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 54% of the break points that he conceded.
Nadal | |||
R1 Hijikata |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|
Score | 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-3 | ||
Tot Set | 4 | 4 | |
Tot Games | 36 | 36 | |
pts | 119-95 | 119-95 | |
Total points | 214 | 214 | |
Winners | 44 | 44 | |
%Winners | 37% | 37% | |
SERVE | |||
Aces | 9 | 9 | |
Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
1st in | 57/100 | 57/100 | |
% 1st in | 57% | 57% | |
1st pts | 44/57 | 44/57 | |
% 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
2nd pts | 28/43 | 28/43 | |
% 2nd pts | 65% | 65% | |
Breaks | |||
Won | 5 | 5 | |
Converted | 5/10 | 5/10 | |
Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
Saved | 3/4 | 3 | |
Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Fognini | |||
R1 Karatsev |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|
Score | 1-6 5-7 6-4 6-1 6-4 | ||
Tot Set | 5 | 5 | |
Tot Games | 46 | 46 | |
pts | 146-146 | 146-146 | |
Total points | 292 | 292 | |
Winners | 64 | 64 | |
%Winners | 44% | 44% | |
SERVE | |||
Aces | 13 | 13 | |
Double Faults | 15 | 15 | |
1st in | 90/161 | 90/161 | |
% 1st in | 56% | 56% | |
1st pts | 64/90 | 64/90 | |
% 1st pts | 71% | 71% | |
2nd pts | 32/71 | 32/71 | |
% 2nd pts | 45% | 45% | |
Breaks | |||
Won | 7 | 7 | |
Converted | 7/11 | 7/11 | |
Converted % | 64% | 64% | |
Conceded | 13 | 13 | |
Saved | 7/13 | 7 | |
Saved % | 54% | 54% | |
Times Broken | 6 | 6 |
Head 2 Head
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Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Andy MurrayMurray – Emilio NavaNava (5-7 6-3 6-1 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alexander BublikBublik (4-6 6-4 6-3 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-4 1-6 6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Cristian GarinGarin (6-3 6-0 4-6 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Pedro CachinCachin – Brandon HoltHolt (1-6 2-6 6-1 7-61 7-66) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Fabio FogniniFognini – Rafael NadalNadal (4-13) – H2H and prediction
- John IsnerIsner – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marin CilicCilic – Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas (7-3) – H2H and prediction
- James DuckworthDuckworth – Daniel EvansEvans (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jason Murray KublerMurray Kubler – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Federico CoriaCoria – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Benjamin BonziBonzi (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pedro CachinCachin – Corentin MoutetMoutet (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Borna CoricCoric – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Christopher EubanksEubanks – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Ilya IvashkaIvashka (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan – Jordan ThompsonThompson (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Joao SousaSousa (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Soon-Woo KwonKwon – Andrey RublevRublev (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Hugo GrenierGrenier – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Sebastian KordaKorda (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Tim Van RijthovenVan Rijthoven – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Jeff WolfWolf (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Yibing WuWu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Gijs BrouwerBrouwer – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Richard GasquetGasquet (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-0) – H2H and prediction