Carlos Alcaraz and Federico Coria will fight against each other in the 2nd round of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 2:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.036
Federico Coria -> 11.5
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Federico Coria
This will be the 2nd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Federico Coria play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Coria (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Coria won 6-4 4-6 6-4 in the 2nd round in Rio de janiero back in 2020.
Highlights Federico Coria vs Carlos Alcaraz – Rio de janiero 19-February-2020
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 71-9 | 28-4 | 22-1 | 10-3 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4 (career-high), Alcaraz reached the 2nd round after beating Sebastian Baez 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret..
In the 1st round, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Baez (7-5 7-5 2-0 ret.). During the match, Alcaraz scored 99 points vs Baez’s 85. Alcaraz was extremely aggressive to blast 42 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz scored just 1 ace in the match and he committed only 6 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve twice and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 62% of his first serves in, winning 68% (42/62) of the points behind his 1st serve and 53% (20/38) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Baez 5 times after converting 38% of his break points (5/13).
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 5 years having won 77% of his matches (156-47). 15-4 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has a compiled43-14 win-loss record in the last 5 years on hard.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in in Rio de Janeiro where he beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 6-4 6-2 and in in Miami where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 7-5 6-4 and in in Barcelona where he defeated Pablo Carreno-Busta in the final 6-3 6-2 and in in Madrid where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 6-1.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 45-9 win-loss record in 2022, 15-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Federico Coria
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-18 | 0-1 | 20-17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-35 | 0-3 | 45-31 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-29 | 3-8 | 35-20 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-32 | 2-5 | 39-26 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-31 | 2-7 | 40-20 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 78, the Argentine reached the 2nd round after defeating Tallon Griekspoor 7-5 6-4 6-3.
In the 1st round, Coria had a good straight sets win against Griekspoor (7-5 6-4 6-3). During the match Coria scored 100 points vs Griekspoor’s 83. Federico was extremely aggressive to blast 46 winners.
About the serving games, Coria recorded 6 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Federico Coria was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 77% (46/60) of his 1st serve and 56% (19/34) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Argentine broke Griekspoor 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).
Federico’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in the Milan Challenger.
Federico has an overall 25-23 win-loss record in 2022, 2-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 26 | 31 |
| Pts | 99-85 | 100-83 |
| Total Points | 184 | 183 |
| Winners | 42 | 46 |
| %Winners | 42% | 46% |
Both Alcaraz and Coria played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set more than Coria (4 vs 3). However, it’s interesting to notice that Alcaraz played 5 games less than Coria. The Spaniard scored 42 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Coria struck 46 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 6 |
| 1st in | 62/100 | 60/94 |
| %1st in | 62% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 42/62 | 46/60 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 20/38 | 19/34 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 56% |
Alcaraz blasted 1 ace . Coria also managed to score 6 aces . Alcaraz won 68% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Coria won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 5 |
| Converted | 5/13 | 5/8 |
| % Converted | 38% | 63% |
| Conceded | 10 | 7 |
| Saved | 8 | 5 |
| % Saved | 80% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 |
The Spaniard broke his opponent 5 times with a 38% conversion rate. Carlos lost his serve twice and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Federico broke his opponent 5 times with a 63% conversion rate. Federico conceded his serve twice and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | |||
| R1 Baez |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | |
| pts | 99-85 | 99-85 | |
| Total points | 184 | 184 | |
| Winners | 42 | 42 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 62/100 | 62/100 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 42/62 | 42/62 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/38 | 20/38 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 5/13 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 | |
| Saved | 8/10 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Coria | |||
| R1 Griekspoor |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 31 | |
| pts | 100-83 | 100-83 | |
| Total points | 183 | 183 | |
| Winners | 46 | 46 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 60/94 | 60/94 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 46/60 | 46/60 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/34 | 19/34 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 5/8 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 63% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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