Jessica Pegula and Caroline Garcia will square off in the quarter of the Western & Southern Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 7:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.59
Caroline Garcia -> 2.42
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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Caroline Garcia
This will be the 4th time that Jessica Pegula and Caroline Garcia clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), but Garcia has a winning record of 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Garcia won 6-4 7-6(3) in the 1st round in Sydney back in January 2022.
Jessica Pegula
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 53-23 | 35-12 | 11-5 | 3-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, the American reached the quarter after beating Marta Kostyuk 6-75 6-1 6-2 and Emma Raducanu 7-5 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Jessica had a good straight sets win against Raducanu (7-5 6-4). During the match, Pegula scored 75 points vs Raducanu’s 60. Jessica was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about the service games, Pegula blasted 3 aces and she was extremely consistent in conceding no double faults. Overall, Jessica Pegula was quite efficient on serve to win 81% (29/36) of her 1st serve and 63% (17/27) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Jessica broke Raducanu 3 times after converting 33% of her break points (3/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has surrendered 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points she played.
Pegula has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 61% of her matches (254-160). 17-9 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Pegula has a composed 137-78 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Jessica’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Madrid.
The American has an overall 31-15 win-loss record in 2022, 17-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Caroline Garcia
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4-9 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 17-17 | 10-10 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-27 | 23-17 | 4-4 | 7-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-21 | 21-13 | 11-4 | 4-1 | 10-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 27-26 | 15-14 | 8-6 | 3-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 35, the French player got to the quarter after beating Diane Parry 4-6 6-3 6-2, Andrea Petkovic 6-2 6-75 6-2, Petra Martic 6-3 6-3, Maria Sakkari 7-62 6-76 6-1 and Elise Mertens 6-4 7-5.
In the 3rd round, The French player had a good straight sets win against Mertens (6-4 7-5). During the match Garcia scored 77 points vs Mertens’s 68. Caroline was very aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about serving, Garcia bagged 6 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Caroline Garcia lost the serve twice and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Garcia put 63% of her first serves in, winning 68% (32/47) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (14/28) on the 2nd serve. Caroline broke Mertens 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Garcia started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in in Bad Homburg where she defeated Bianca Vanessa Andreescu in the final 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 and in in Warsaw where she beat Ana Bogdan in the final 6-4 6-1.
Caroline has an overall 32-16 win-loss record in 2022, 8-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2015 and 2018. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pegula | Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 50 | 129 |
| Pts | 183-142 | 445-371 |
| Total Points | 325 | 816 |
| Winners | 64 | 191 |
| %Winners | 35% | 43% |
Pegula played 2 matches while Garcia competed in 5 matches. Garcia started her run from the qualifications while Pegula had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Jessica Pegula dropped 1 set, while Caroline Garcia surrendered 3 sets. Pegula has played 8 set(s) less than Garcia (5 vs 13). Therefore, Pegula played 79 games less than Garcia. Jessica scored 64 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The French player managed to score 191 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pegula | Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 44 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 8.8 |
| 1st in | 83/137 | 243/408 |
| %1st in | 61% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 64/83 | 191/243 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 35/54 | 94/165 |
| %2nd pts | 65% | 57% |
Pegula struck 6 aces (3 per match). Garcia struck 44 aces (8.8 per match). Pegula won 77% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 65% of the points. On the other side, Garcia won 79% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pegula | Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 17 |
| Converted | 9/19 | 17/39 |
| % Converted | 47% | 44% |
| Conceded | 5 | 22 |
| Saved | 3 | 18 |
| % Saved | 60% | 82% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 |
Jessica broke her opponents 9 times with a 47% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve twice and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. Garcia broke her opponents 17 times with a 44% conversion rate. Caroline conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 82% of the break points that she conceded.
| Pegula | ||||
| R2 Kostyuk |
R3 Raducanu |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-75 6-1 6-2 | 7-5 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 22 | 50 | |
| pts | 108-82 | 75-60 | 183-142 | |
| Total points | 190 | 135 | 325 | |
| Winners | 35 | 29 | 64 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 39% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 47/74 | 36/63 | 83/137 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 57% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 35/47 | 29/36 | 64/83 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 81% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/27 | 17/27 | 35/54 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 63% | 65% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 3/9 | 9/19 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 33% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 2/3 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 67% | 59% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Garcia | |||||||
| Q1 Parry |
Q3 Petkovic |
R1 Martic |
R2 Sakkari |
R3 Mertens |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-2 6-75 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | 7-62 6-76 6-1 | 6-4 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 29 | 18 | 33 | 22 | 129 | |
| pts | 88-72 | 102-86 | 64-52 | 114-93 | 77-68 | 445-371 | |
| Total points | 160 | 188 | 116 | 207 | 145 | 816 | |
| Winners | 33 | 50 | 30 | 46 | 32 | 191 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 49% | 47% | 40% | 42% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 6 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 44 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 39/76 | 62/98 | 40/65 | 55/94 | 47/75 | 243/408 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 63% | 62% | 59% | 63% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 33/39 | 50/62 | 30/40 | 46/55 | 32/47 | 191/243 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 81% | 75% | 84% | 68% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/37 | 19/36 | 14/25 | 25/39 | 14/28 | 94/165 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 53% | 56% | 64% | 50% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 4/11 | 3/5 | 3/9 | 4/9 | 17/39 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 36% | 60% | 33% | 44% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 3/3 | 4/4 | 2/3 | 7/9 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 100% | 100% | 67% | 78% | 206% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWLWWWWL
LLWLLWLWLL Tennis Scores in Cincinnati
- Evan KingKing – Genaro Alberto OlivieriAlberto Olivieri (7-5 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Calvin HemeryHemery – Kaichi UchidaUchida (2-6 7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Felipe MantillaMantilla – Santiago Fa Rodriguez TavernaFa Rodriguez Taverna (6-2 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Madison KeysKeys – Elena RybakinaRybakina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic – Petra KvitovaKvitova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Caroline GarciaGarcia (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Shuai ZhangZhang (3-1) – H2H and prediction
