Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys will square off in the 3rd round of the Western & Southern Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 1:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.24
Madison Keys -> 4.25

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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys

This will be the 3rd time that Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys square off. The head to head is 2-0 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Swiatek won 6-1 6-0 in the quarter in Indian Wells back in March 2022.

Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys – Indian Wells 16-March-2022

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
2
High
1
WWLLWLWWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 64-17 40-10 11-4 3-2 10-1 0-0
2024 64-9 29-5 26-2 7-1 2-1 0-0
2023 68-11 42-8 19-2 0-0 7-1 0-0
2022 67-9 42-6 18-1 5-1 2-1 0-0
2021 36-15 18-10 12-2 2-1 4-2 0-0
See all years

Currently world no. 1 the Pole reached the 3rd round after beating Sloane Stephens 6-4 7-5.

In the 2nd round, The Pole had a good straight sets win against Stephens (6-4 7-5). During the match, Swiatek scored 75 points vs Stephens’s 60. Swiatek was pretty aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek struck 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 4 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 68% of her first serves in, winning 72% (33/46) of the points behind her 1st serve and 32% (7/22) on the 2nd serve. Iga broke Stephens 6 times after converting 55% of her break points (6/11).

Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 79% of her matches (200-53). 28-4 on hard in 2022. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Swiatek has a composed77-27 record in the last 7 years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in in Doha where she overcame Anett Kontaveit in the final 6-2 6-0 and in in Indian Wells where she overcame Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-1 and in in Miami where she beat Naomi Osaka in the final 6-4 6-0 and in in Stuttgart where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-2 6-2 and in in Rome where she beat Ons Jabeur in the final 6-2 6-2 and in at the French Open where she defeated Cori Gauff in the final 6-1 6-3.

Iga has a compiled 50-6 win-loss record in 2022, 28-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Cincinnati
Swiatek's Record

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
7
High
5
LLLLWWLWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 37-15 24-6 9-4 0-2 4-3 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 24, Keys reached the 3rd round after defeating Yulia Putintseva 7-5 6-3 and Jelena Ostapenko 6-4 7-5.

In the 2nd round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Ostapenko (6-4 7-5). During the match Keys scored 87 points vs Ostapenko’s 76. The American was very aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about serving, Keys managed to score 5 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve twice and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 68% of her first serves in, winning 67% (33/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 57% (13/23) on the 2nd serve. Keys broke Ostapenko 4 times after converting 25% of her break points (4/16).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Madison hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in in Adelaide where she overcame Alison Riske in the final 6-1 6-2.

Keys has an aggregate 22-13 win-loss record in 2022, 17-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, she won this tournament once in 2019. See her history.

Cincinnati
Keys's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

I.Swiatek
M.Keys
1h:39
1h:39
Time on court​
!
2h:56
2h:56
1h:39
1h:39
Last match​
1h:35
1h:35
1
1
Match played
!
2
2
22
22
Games Played​
43
43
2
2
Set played​​
4
4
75
75
Total points​
154
154
75
75
Avg point​
77
77
33
33
Winners
60
60
33
33
Avg Winners​
30
30
44%
44%
Ratio winners
39%
39%
-- Serve --
2
2
Aces
11
11
2
2
Avg Aces
5.5
5.5
3
3
Double Faults
3
3
3
3
Avg Double Faults
1.5
1.5
33/46
33/46
1st won total​
60/80
60/80
!
72%
72%
1st won %
!
75%
75%
7/22
7/22
2nd won total​
27/48
27/48
!
32%
32%
2nd won %
56%
56%
-- Break Points --
6/11
6/11
BP won
7/20
7/20
6/11
6/11
Avg BP won
3.5/10
3.5/10
!
55%
55%
Won
35%
35%
11
11
Conceded
6
6
11
11
Avg Conceded
3
3
4
4
Broken
2
2
4
4
Avg Broken
1
1
7
7
Saved
4
4
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Swiatek Keys
Match played 1 2
Tot Set 2 4
Tot Games 22 43
Pts 75-60 154-133
Total Points 135 287
Winners 33 60
%Winners 44% 39%

Swiatek played 1 match while Keys competed in 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Swiatek has played 2 set(s) less than Keys (2 vs 4). Therefore, Swiatek played 21 games less than Keys. Swiatek scored 33 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Keys recorded 60 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve Swiatek Keys
Aces 2 11
Avg per match 2 5.5
1st in 46/68 80/128
%1st in 68% 63%
1st pts 33/46 60/80
%1st pts 72% 75%
2nd pts 7/22 27/48
%2nd pts 32% 56%

Swiatek struck 2 aces . Keys fired 11 aces (5.5 per match). Swiatek won 72% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 32% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 75% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Swiatek Keys
Won 6 7
Converted 6/11 7/20
% Converted 55% 35%
Conceded 11 6
Saved 7 4
% Saved 64% 67%
Times Broken 4 2

Iga broke her opponent 6 times with a 55% conversion rate. Iga lost her serve 4 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 7 times with a 35% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve twice and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
R2
Stephens		 Total
Score 6-4 7-5
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 22 22
pts 75-60 75-60
Total points 135 135
Winners 33 33
%Winners 44% 44%
SERVE
Aces 2 2
Double Faults 3 3
1st in 46/68 46/68
% 1st in 68% 68%
1st pts 33/46 33/46
% 1st pts 72% 72%
2nd pts 7/22 7/22
% 2nd pts 32% 32%
Breaks
Won 6 6
Converted 6/11 6/11
Converted % 55% 55%
Conceded 11 11
Saved 7/11 7
Saved % 64% 64%
Times Broken 4 4
Keys
R1
Putintseva		 R2
Ostapenko		 Total
Score 7-5 6-3 6-4 7-5
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 21 22 43
pts 67-57 87-76 154-133
Total points 124 163 287
Winners 27 33 60
%Winners 40% 38% 39%
SERVE
Aces 6 5 11
Double Faults 1 2 3
1st in 31/56 49/72 80/128
% 1st in 55% 68% 63%
1st pts 27/31 33/49 60/80
% 1st pts 87% 67% 75%
2nd pts 14/25 13/23 27/48
% 2nd pts 56% 57% 56%
Breaks
Won 3 4 7
Converted 3/4 4/16 7/20
Converted % 75% 25% 35%
Conceded 1 5 6
Saved 1/1 3/5 4
Saved % 100% 60% 160%
Times Broken 0 2 2

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

Upcoming matches in the draw

Swiatek
More Stats
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Keys

Click for FULL STATS