Jelena Ostapenko and Madison Keys will face off in the 2nd round of the Western & Southern Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 5:00 pm on Stadium 3. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jelena Ostapenko who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jelena Ostapenko is the pick to win this match.
Jelena Ostapenko -> 1.80
Madison Keys -> 2.00
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Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 4th time that Jelena Ostapenko and Madison Keys face off. The head to head is 2-1 for Keys (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Ostapenko won 6-3 0-0 ret. in the 3rd round in Eastbourne back in June 2022.
Jelena Ostapenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-20 | 8-14 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15, Ostapenko reached the 2nd round after defeating Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-4 6-4.
In the 1st round, The Latvian had a good straight sets win against Haddad Maia (6-4 6-4). During the match, Ostapenko scored 65 points vs Haddad Maia’s 51. Ostapenko was extremely aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ostapenko fired 4 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Jelena Ostapenko was very effective on serve to win 78% (25/32) of her 1st serve and 57% (12/21) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. The Latvian broke Haddad Maia 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Ostapenko has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 62% of her matches (296-184). 13-6 on hard in 2022. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Ostapenko has an aggregate 96-82 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in in Dubai where she beat Veronika Kudermetova in the final 6-0 6-4.
Ostapenko has an overall 25-13 win-loss record in 2022, 13-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37-15 | 24-6 | 9-4 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 24, Madison got to the 2nd round after beating Yulia Putintseva 7-5 6-3.
In the 1st round, Madison had a good straight sets win against Putintseva (7-5 6-3). During the match Keys scored 67 points vs Putintseva’s 57. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about serving, Keys struck 6 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Madison Keys was extremely effective on serve to win 87% (27/31) of her 1st serve and 56% (14/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Madison broke Putintseva 3 times after converting 75% of her break points (3/4).
Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in in Adelaide where she defeated Alison Riske in the final 6-1 6-2.
The American has a composed 21-13 win-loss record in 2022, 16-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, she won this tournament once in 2019. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 20 | 21 |
| Pts | 65-51 | 67-57 |
| Total Points | 116 | 124 |
| Winners | 25 | 27 |
| %Winners | 38% | 40% |
Both Ostapenko and Keys played 1 match. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Ostapenko and Keys have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Ostapenko played 1 game less than Keys. Ostapenko scored 25 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Madison struck 27 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 6 |
| 1st in | 32/53 | 31/56 |
| %1st in | 60% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 25/32 | 27/31 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 87% |
| 2nd pts | 12/21 | 14/25 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 56% |
Ostapenko recorded 4 aces . Keys blasted 6 aces . Ostapenko won 78% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 87% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 3 |
| Converted | 4/8 | 3/4 |
| % Converted | 50% | 75% |
| Conceded | 5 | 1 |
| Saved | 3 | 1 |
| % Saved | 60% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 |
Jelena broke her opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. Jelena surrendered her serve twice and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponent 3 times with a 75% conversion rate. The American was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points.
| Ostapenko | |||
| R1 Haddad Maia |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 65-51 | 65-51 | |
| Total points | 116 | 116 | |
| Winners | 25 | 25 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 32/53 | 32/53 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 25/32 | 25/32 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/21 | 12/21 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/8 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Keys | |||
| R1 Putintseva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 21 | |
| pts | 67-57 | 67-57 | |
| Total points | 124 | 124 | |
| Winners | 27 | 27 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 31/56 | 31/56 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 27/31 | 27/31 | |
| % 1st pts | 87% | 87% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/25 | 14/25 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 3/4 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 75% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLWLLWLL
LLLLWWLWWW Tennis Scores in Cincinnati
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Maria SakkariSakkari (7-62 6-76 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Anett KontaveitKontaveit – Tereza MartincovaMartincova (3-6 7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Genaro Alberto OlivieriAlberto Olivieri – Facundo MenaMena (5-7 6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thales TuriniTurini – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (6-0 7-67) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Calvin HemeryHemery – Ty TrombettaTrombetta (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Evan KingKing – Ulises BlanchBlanch (6-1 3-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Kaichi UchidaUchida – Ruben GonzalesGonzales (7-5 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Santiago Fa Rodriguez TavernaFa Rodriguez Taverna – Eric QuigleyQuigley (5-7 6-3 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sloane StephensStephens (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Alison RiskeRiske (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Garbine MuguruzaMuguruza (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Simona HalepHalep (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Petra KvitovaKvitova (4-5) – H2H and prediction
- Caty McNallyMcNally – Ons JabeurJabeur (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Marta KostyukKostyuk (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina PliskovaPliskova – Elise MertensMertens (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Shelby RogersRogers – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Shuai ZhangZhang (2-1) – H2H and prediction
