Pavel Kotov and Matteo Arnaldi will square off in the final of the San Marino Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 8:45 pm on CENTER COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pavel Kotov who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pavel Kotov is the pick to win this match.
Pavel Kotov -> 1.66
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.10
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Prediction and head to head Pavel Kotov vs. Matteo Arnaldi
There is no head to head record between Pavel Kotov and Matteo Arnaldi since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Pavel Kotov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20-19 | 9-9 | 11-9 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 13-14 | 20-12 | 9-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-20 | 5-3 | 20-9 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-25 | 5-5 | 7-11 | 17-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 12-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 130, the Russian reached the final after beating Viktor Durasovic 6-1 6-1, Maxime Janvier 6-4 6-3, Alexander Weis 7-5 6-0 and Marco Cecchinato 3-6 7-5 6-1.
In the semifinal against Cecchinato, Pavel recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-5 6-1). During the match, Kotov scored 86 points vs Cecchinato’s 74. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 43 winners.
Talking about the service games, Kotov scored 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Pavel Kotov lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Kotov put 63% of his first serves in, winning 80% (43/54) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (12/32) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Cecchinato 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian has lost 1 set in this competition to win 57% of the points he played.
Kotov has a solid match record in the last 7 years having won 62% of his matches (198-122). 19-9 on clay in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Kotov has an aggregate89-59 record in the last 7 years on clay.
Pavel’s best result of the season was getting to the final in the Forli 3 Challenger.
Kotov has an overall 28-14 win-loss record in 2022, 19-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the San Marino Challenger
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28-23 | 16-12 | 10-9 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 204 (career-high), Matteo got to the final after defeating Federico Gaio 6-2 6-0, Lukas Neumayer 6-3 6-4, Fabian Marozsan 6-4 6-2 and Filip Cristian Jianu 6-1 7-5.
In the semifinal, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Cristian Jianu (6-1 7-5). During the match Arnaldi scored 82 points vs Cristian Jianu’s 56. Matteo was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about serving, Arnaldi couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 3 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve 4 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 52% of his first serves in, winning 64% (23/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (17/33) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Cristian Jianu 7 times after converting 47% of his break points (7/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
Matteo’s best result of the season was reaching the final in the Francavilla Challenger.
The Italian has an aggregate 32-22 win-loss record in 2022, 31-16 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the San Marino Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kotov | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 79 | 70 |
| Pts | 286-213 | 276-197 |
| Total Points | 499 | 473 |
| Winners | 107 | 105 |
| %Winners | 37% | 38% |
Both Kotov and Arnaldi played 4 matches. At the moment, Pavel Kotov dropped 1 set while Matteo Arnaldi hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Kotov has played 1 set more than Arnaldi (9 vs 8). Therefore, Kotov played 9 games more than Arnaldi. Kotov scored 107 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Arnaldi made 105 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kotov | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 1 |
| 1st in | 144/244 | 152/243 |
| %1st in | 59% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 107/144 | 105/152 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 56/100 | 50/91 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 55% |
Kotov made 8 aces (2 per match). Arnaldi bagged 4 aces (1 per match). Kotov won 74% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kotov | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 19 |
| Converted | 19/38 | 19/34 |
| % Converted | 50% | 56% |
| Conceded | 17 | 19 |
| Saved | 12 | 13 |
| % Saved | 71% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 6 |
The Russian broke his opponents 19 times with a 50% conversion rate. Pavel lost his serve 5 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded. Arnaldi broke his opponents 19 times with a 56% conversion rate. Arnaldi conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.
| Kotov | ||||||
| R1 Durasovic |
R2 Janvier |
1/4 Weis |
1/2 Cecchinato |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-1 | 6-4 6-3 | 7-5 6-0 | 3-6 7-5 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 19 | 18 | 28 | 79 | |
| pts | 66-41 | 73-60 | 61-38 | 86-74 | 286-213 | |
| Total points | 107 | 133 | 99 | 160 | 499 | |
| Winners | 21 | 25 | 18 | 43 | 107 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 34% | 30% | 50% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 28/43 | 38/73 | 24/42 | 54/86 | 144/244 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 52% | 57% | 63% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 21/28 | 25/38 | 18/24 | 43/54 | 107/144 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 66% | 75% | 80% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/15 | 20/35 | 14/18 | 12/32 | 56/100 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 57% | 78% | 38% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19 | |
| Converted | 5/16 | 4/7 | 5/8 | 5/7 | 19/38 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 57% | 63% | 71% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 17 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 7/8 | 0/1 | 3/6 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 88% | 0% | 50% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Arnaldi | ||||||
| R1 Gaio |
R2 Neumayer |
1/4 Marozsan |
1/2 Cristian |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-0 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-1 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 70 | |
| pts | 56-32 | 77-63 | 61-46 | 82-56 | 276-197 | |
| Total points | 88 | 140 | 107 | 138 | 473 | |
| Winners | 19 | 36 | 27 | 23 | 105 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 47% | 44% | 28% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 23/37 | 55/80 | 38/57 | 36/69 | 152/243 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 69% | 67% | 52% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 19/23 | 36/55 | 27/38 | 23/36 | 105/152 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 65% | 71% | 64% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/14 | 12/25 | 12/19 | 17/33 | 50/91 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 48% | 63% | 52% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/5 | 3/5 | 7/15 | 19/34 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 80% | 60% | 47% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 19 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 6/8 | 1/1 | 6/10 | 13 | |
| Saved % | – | 75% | 100% | 60% | 59% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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