Aryna Sabalenka and Daria Kasatkina will face off in the quarter of the Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 11:00 am on Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.63
Daria Kasatkina -> 2.34
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Daria Kasatkina
This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Daria Kasatkina fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-3 in the 2nd round in Madrid back in 2021.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina – Madrid 02-May-2021
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15-5 | 14-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Sabalenka got to the quarter after beating Caroline Dolehide 5-7 6-1 7-5.
In the 2nd round against Dolehide, The Belarussian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-1 7-5). During the match, Sabalenka scored 114 points vs Dolehide’s 105. Sabalenka was pretty aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka struck 5 aces and she was not very solid on her 2nd serve to score 23 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 51% of her first serves in, winning 74% (46/62) of the points behind her 1st serve and 37% (22/60) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Dolehide 7 times after converting 41% of her break points (7/17).
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 65% of her matches (250-132). 7-7 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an aggregate141-68 record in the last 7 years on hard.
Sabalenka’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch.
The Belarussian has a composed 20-14 win-loss record in 2022, 7-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in San Jose
Daria Kasatkina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16-9 | 12-8 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-14 | 7-8 | 5-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12, Darya reached the quarter after defeating Elena Rybakina 1-6 6-2 6-0 and Taylor Townsend 6-4 6-0.
In the 2nd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Townsend (6-4 6-0). During the match Kasatkina scored 60 points vs Townsend’s 41. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Kasatkina blasted 4 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 79% of her first serves in, winning 70% (31/44) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (4/12) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Townsend 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Darya has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Darya’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Melbourne, Sydney, Rome and at the French Open .
Darya has a composed 29-14 win-loss record in 2022, 13-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in San Jose
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 31 | 37 |
| Pts | 114-105 | 138-104 |
| Total Points | 219 | 242 |
| Winners | 46 | 56 |
| %Winners | 40% | 41% |
Sabalenka played 1 match while Kasatkina competed in 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set, while Daria Kasatkina surrendered 1 set. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Kasatkina (3 vs 5). Therefore, Sabalenka played 6 games less than Kasatkina. Sabalenka scored 46 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Darya recorded 56 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 2 |
| 1st in | 62/122 | 81/126 |
| %1st in | 51% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 46/62 | 56/81 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 22/60 | 20/45 |
| %2nd pts | 37% | 44% |
Sabalenka blasted 5 aces . Kasatkina recorded 4 aces (2 per match). Sabalenka won 74% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 37% of the points. On the other side, Kasatkina won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 44% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 11 |
| Converted | 7/17 | 11/18 |
| % Converted | 41% | 61% |
| Conceded | 14 | 11 |
| Saved | 9 | 7 |
| % Saved | 64% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 4 |
The Belarussian broke her opponent 7 times with a 41% conversion rate. The Belarussian surrendered her serve 5 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 11 times with a 61% conversion rate. The Russian conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||
| R2 Dolehide |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 6-1 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 31 | |
| pts | 114-105 | 114-105 | |
| Total points | 219 | 219 | |
| Winners | 46 | 46 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 23 | 23 | |
| 1st in | 62/122 | 62/122 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 51% | |
| 1st pts | 46/62 | 46/62 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/60 | 22/60 | |
| % 2nd pts | 37% | 37% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 7 | 7 | |
| Converted | 7/17 | 7/17 | |
| Converted % | 41% | 41% | |
| Conceded | 14 | 14 | |
| Saved | 9/14 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 64% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 5 | |
| Kasatkina | ||||
| R1 Rybakina |
R2 Townsend |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1-6 6-2 6-0 | 6-4 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 16 | 37 | |
| pts | 78-63 | 60-41 | 138-104 | |
| Total points | 141 | 101 | 242 | |
| Winners | 25 | 31 | 56 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 52% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 37/70 | 44/56 | 81/126 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 79% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 25/37 | 31/44 | 56/81 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 70% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/33 | 4/12 | 20/45 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 33% | 44% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 5/9 | 11/18 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 56% | 61% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 3 | 11 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 2/3 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 67% | 130% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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