Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti will face off in the final of the Hamburg European Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.188
Lorenzo Musetti -> 5.3
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
This will be the 2nd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they played, Alcaraz won 7-5 2-6 6-3 in the semifinal in the Trieste Challenger back in 2020.
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26-6 | 13-2 | 12-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6 (career-high), the Spaniard reached the final after defeating Nicola Kuhn 3-6 6-1 7-63, Filip Krajinovic 7-64 6-3, Karen Khachanov 6-0 6-2 and Alex Molcan 7-62 6-1.
In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Molcan (7-62 6-1). During the match, Alcaraz scored 72 points vs Molcan’s 54. Carlos was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz bagged 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve twice and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 75% of his first serves in, winning 73% (29/40) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (6/13) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Molcan 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 5 years having won 78% of his matches (150-43). 24-2 on clay in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has an overall96-26 win-loss record in the last 5 years on clay.
His best result of the season was conquering the title in in Rio de Janeiro where he overcame Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 6-4 6-2 and in in Miami where he defeated Casper Ruud in the final 7-5 6-4 and in in Barcelona where he overcame Pablo Carreno-Busta in the final 6-3 6-2 and in in Madrid where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 6-1.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 39-5 win-loss record in 2022, 24-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Hamburg
Alcaraz has never competed in this tournament before.
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-19 | 6-7 | 10-8 | 1-2 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 30-15 | 6-4 | 20-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 62, Lorenzo got to the final after beating Dusan Lajovic 6-74 7-64 6-3, Emil Ruusuvuori 6-4 7-5, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-4 6-3 and Francisco Cerundolo 6-3 7-63.
In the semifinal, Musetti had a good straight sets win against Cerundolo (6-3 7-63). During the match Musetti scored 82 points vs Cerundolo’s 71. Lorenzo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about serving, Musetti wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 64% of his first serves in, winning 62% (34/55) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (17/31) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Cerundolo 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Lorenzo’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Forli 6 Challenger.
The Italian has a composed 25-17 win-loss record in 2022, 19-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 85 | 98 |
| Pts | 307-245 | 339-288 |
| Total Points | 552 | 627 |
| Winners | 126 | 152 |
| %Winners | 41% | 45% |
Both Alcaraz and Musetti played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz conceded 1 set, while Lorenzo Musetti dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Musetti have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Alcaraz played 13 games less than Musetti. Carlos scored 126 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian recorded 152 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 177/245 | 221/322 |
| %1st in | 72% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 126/177 | 152/221 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 41/68 | 57/101 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 56% |
Alcaraz made 6 aces (1.5 per match). Musetti struck 5 aces (1.3 per match). Alcaraz won 71% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Musetti won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 16 |
| Converted | 16/44 | 16/26 |
| % Converted | 36% | 62% |
| Conceded | 9 | 26 |
| Saved | 4 | 17 |
| % Saved | 44% | 65% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 9 |
Carlos broke his opponents 16 times with a 36% conversion rate. The Spaniard dropped his serve 5 times and he saved 44% of the break points that he conceded. Lorenzo broke his opponents 16 times with a 62% conversion rate. Lorenzo conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 65% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||||
| R1 Kuhn |
R2 Krajinovic |
1/4 Khachanov |
1/2 Molcan |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-1 7-63 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-0 6-2 | 7-62 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 22 | 14 | 20 | 85 | |
| pts | 100-86 | 78-71 | 57-34 | 72-54 | 307-245 | |
| Total points | 186 | 149 | 91 | 126 | 552 | |
| Winners | 47 | 28 | 22 | 29 | 126 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 36% | 39% | 40% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 63/89 | 43/61 | 31/42 | 40/53 | 177/245 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 70% | 74% | 75% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 47/63 | 28/43 | 22/31 | 29/40 | 126/177 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 65% | 71% | 73% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/26 | 11/18 | 8/11 | 6/13 | 41/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 61% | 73% | 46% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16 | |
| Converted | 2/10 | 4/12 | 5/11 | 5/11 | 16/44 | |
| Converted % | 20% | 33% | 45% | 45% | 36% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 1/3 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 33% | 100% | 33% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Musetti | ||||||
| R1 Lajovic |
R2 Ruusuvuori |
1/4 Davidovich Fokina |
1/2 Cerundolo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-74 7-64 6-3 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-4 6-3 | 6-3 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 35 | 22 | 19 | 22 | 98 | |
| pts | 116-104 | 75-63 | 66-50 | 82-71 | 339-288 | |
| Total points | 220 | 138 | 116 | 153 | 627 | |
| Winners | 63 | 31 | 24 | 34 | 152 | |
| %Winners | 54% | 41% | 36% | 41% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 82/112 | 44/70 | 40/54 | 55/86 | 221/322 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 63% | 74% | 64% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 63/82 | 31/44 | 24/40 | 34/55 | 152/221 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 70% | 60% | 62% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/30 | 12/26 | 11/14 | 17/31 | 57/101 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 46% | 79% | 55% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 5/10 | 5/7 | 4/5 | 16/26 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 71% | 80% | 62% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 26 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 4/7 | 2/4 | 5/8 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 57% | 50% | 63% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
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