Illya Marchenko and Denis Istomin will fight against each other in the 2nd round of the Nur-Sultan Challenger for the 11th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 11:30 am on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Illya Marchenko who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Illya Marchenko is the pick to win this match.
Illya Marchenko -> 1.47
Denis Istomin -> 2.68
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Prediction and head to head Illya Marchenko vs. Denis Istomin
This will be the 11th time that Illya Marchenko and Denis Istomin play each other. The head to head is 6-4 for Istomin (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Istomin won 7-6(0) 6-2 in the 1st round in the Biella Challenger back in 2020.
Illya Marchenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-2 | 5-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 8-22 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-22 | 17-5 | 6-6 | 18-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-25 | 9-10 | 3-4 | 8-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-28 | 5-7 | 2-5 | 26-12 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 288, Marchenko got to the 2nd round after beating Grigoriy Lomakin 6-3 6-3.
In the 1st round, Marchenko had a good straight sets win against Lomakin (6-3 6-3). During the match, Marchenko scored 60 points vs Lomakin’s 43. Illya was very aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Marchenko scored just 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 2 double faults. Illya Marchenko was pretty effective on serve to win 86% (25/29) of his 1st serve and 72% (13/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Ukrainian broke Lomakin 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).
Marchenko has a favorable match record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (283-223). 4-4 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Marchenko has a compiled 110-90 match record in the last years on hard.
The Ukrainian has an aggregate 9-13 win-loss record in 2022, 4-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the The Nur-Sultan Challenger
Denis Istomin
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 13-26 | 8-10 | 4-7 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 17-29 | 2-8 | 7-8 | 7-12 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 449, the Uzbek got to the 2nd round after defeating Yan Bondarevskiy 6-3 3-6 6-2.
In the 1st round, Denis defeated Bondarevskiy (6-3 3-6 6-2). During the match Istomin scored 86 points vs Bondarevskiy’s 80. Istomin was very aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about serving, Istomin recorded 10 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Denis Istomin lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Istomin put 52% of his first serves in, winning 75% (30/40) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (17/37) on the 2nd serve. Denis broke Bondarevskiy 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
The Uzbek has an overall 7-15 win-loss record in 2022, 4-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Marchenko | Istomin |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 26 |
| Pts | 60-43 | 86-80 |
| Total Points | 103 | 166 |
| Winners | 25 | 30 |
| %Winners | 42% | 35% |
Both Marchenko and Istomin played 1 match. At the moment, Denis Istomin dropped 1 set while Illya Marchenko hasn’t conceded a set so far. Marchenko has played 1 set(s) less than Istomin (2 vs 3). Therefore, Marchenko played 8 games less than Istomin. The Ukrainian scored 25 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Uzbek scored 30 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Marchenko | Istomin |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 10 |
| 1st in | 29/47 | 40/77 |
| %1st in | 62% | 52% |
| 1st pts | 25/29 | 30/40 |
| %1st pts | 86% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 13/18 | 17/37 |
| %2nd pts | 72% | 46% |
Marchenko managed to score 1 ace . Istomin also fired 10 aces . Marchenko won 86% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 72% of the points. On the other side, Istomin won 75% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Marchenko | Istomin |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 5 |
| Converted | 3/8 | 5/11 |
| % Converted | 38% | 45% |
| Conceded | 2 | 8 |
| Saved | 2 | 5 |
| % Saved | 100% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 |
The Ukrainian broke his opponent 3 times with a 38% conversion rate. The Ukrainian quite strong on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points. The Uzbek broke his opponent 5 times with a 45% conversion rate. Denis conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.
| Marchenko | |||
| R1 Lomakin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 60-43 | 60-43 | |
| Total points | 103 | 103 | |
| Winners | 25 | 25 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 29/47 | 29/47 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 25/29 | 25/29 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/18 | 13/18 | |
| % 2nd pts | 72% | 72% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | 3/8 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Istomin | |||
| R1 Bondarevskiy |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 3-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | |
| pts | 86-80 | 86-80 | |
| Total points | 166 | 166 | |
| Winners | 30 | 30 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 10 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 40/77 | 40/77 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 30/40 | 30/40 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/37 | 17/37 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 5/11 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWLLWW
L Tennis Scores in Sultan Challenger
- Denis IstominIstomin – Yan BondarevskiyBondarevskiy (6-3 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Dmitry PopkoPopko – Jose StathamStatham (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Yanki ErelErel – Prajnesh GunneswaranGunneswaran (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Evgeny KarlovskiyKarlovskiy – Andrew PaulsonPaulson (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Alafia AyeniAyeni – Dostanbek TashbulatovTashbulatov (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Evgeny DonskoyDonskoy – Dominik PalanPalan (6-2 7-63) – See score progression
- Daniel CukiermanCukierman – Jay ClarkeClarke (6-1 5-3 ret.) – See score progression
- Beibit ZhukayevZhukayev – Shintaro ImaiImai (7-63 6-1) – See score progression
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Seong Chan HongChan Hong (6-2 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Ji Sung NamSung Nam – Timofey SkatovSkatov (7-64 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
- David PoljakPoljak – Akira SantillanSantillan (3-6 7-67 6-4) – See score progression
- Gabriel DecampsDecamps – Ivan LiutarevichLiutarevich (2-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Mikhail KukushkinKukushkin – Lucas CatarinaCatarina (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Benjamin LockLock – Sergey FominFomin (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Denis YevseyevYevseyev – Alibek KachmazovKachmazov (6-3 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Illya MarchenkoMarchenko – Grigoriy LomakinLomakin (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Illya MarchenkoMarchenko – Denis IstominIstomin (4-6) – H2H and prediction
- Evgeny KarlovskiyKarlovskiy – Denis YevseyevYevseyev (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Benjamin LockLock – Ji Sung NamSung Nam (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- David PoljakPoljak – Evgeny DonskoyDonskoy (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Dmitry PopkoPopko – Yanki ErelErel (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Alafia AyeniAyeni (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Gabriel DecampsDecamps – Mikhail KukushkinKukushkin (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Beibit ZhukayevZhukayev – Daniel CukiermanCukierman (0-0) – H2H and prediction
