Sebastian Baez and Francisco Cerundolo will fight against each other in the final of the Nordea Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 2:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Baez who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Sebastian Baez is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Baez -> 1.56
Francisco Cerundolo -> 2.56
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Prediction and head to head Sebastian Baez vs. Francisco Cerundolo
This will be the 4th time that Sebastian Baez and Francisco Cerundolo play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Baez (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Baez won 4-6 6-1 6-2 in the semifinal in the Campinas Challenger back in 2021.
Sebastian Baez
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-27 | 3-9 | 17-14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-28 | 5-9 | 26-11 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-27 | 9-7 | 22-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-32 | 6-12 | 27-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-16 | 2-1 | 52-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 34 (career-high), Baez got to the final after beating Fabio Fognini 6-3 6-4, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-2 6-3, Dominic Thiem 6-2 6-75 6-4 and Andrey Rublev 6-2 6-4.
In the semifinal, Sebastian had a good straight sets win against Rublev (6-2 6-4). During the match, Baez scored 65 points vs Rublev’s 47. Sebastian was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Regarding the service games, Baez scored just 1 ace in the course of the match and he committed only 3 double faults. Sebastian Baez lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Baez put 79% of his first serves in, winning 69% (29/42) of the points behind his 1st serve and 64% (7/11) on the 2nd serve. Sebastian broke Rublev 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Argentine has surrendered 1 set in this competition to win 56% of the points he played.
Baez has a fantastic match record in the last 7 years having won 70% of his matches (186-80). 27-9 on clay in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Baez has a composed164-62 win-loss record in the last 7 years on clay.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in in Estoril where he beat Frances Tiafoe in the final 6-3 6-2.
The Argentine has an overall 34-18 win-loss record in 2022, 27-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Bastad
The Argentine has never competed in this tournament before.
Francisco Cerundolo
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38-25 | 12-8 | 21-11 | 5-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 35-31 | 5-10 | 21-13 | 9-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-26 | 10-10 | 19-12 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 36-28 | 7-8 | 25-10 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 44-24 | 3-2 | 39-21 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 39 (career-high), Cerundolo reached the final after defeating Pedro Sousa 6-4 6-3, Casper Ruud 6-4 3-6 7-5, Aslan Karatsev 7-5 6-1 and Pablo Carreno-Busta 6-3 6-2.
In the semifinal, Cerundolo had a good straight sets win against Carreno-Busta (6-3 6-2). During the match Cerundolo scored 59 points vs Carreno-Busta’s 44. Francisco was quite aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about serving, Cerundolo wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Francisco Cerundolo lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Cerundolo put 68% of his first serves in, winning 67% (24/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 71% (12/17) on the 2nd serve. Cerundolo broke Carreno-Busta 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Francisco has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Cerundolo’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger.
The Argentine has a compiled 29-17 win-loss record in 2022, 21-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Bastad
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Baez | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 85 | 86 |
| Pts | 315-245 | 305-263 |
| Total Points | 560 | 568 |
| Winners | 139 | 122 |
| %Winners | 44% | 40% |
Both Baez and Cerundolo played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Sebastian Baez conceded 1 set, while Francisco Cerundolo lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Baez and Cerundolo have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Baez played 1 game less than Cerundolo. Sebastian scored 139 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Francisco bagged 122 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Baez | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 0.3 | 1 |
| 1st in | 188/257 | 177/289 |
| %1st in | 73% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 139/188 | 122/177 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 39/69 | 60/112 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 54% |
Baez recorded 1 ace (0.3 per match). Cerundolo also fired 4 aces (1 per match). Baez won 74% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Cerundolo won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Baez | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 17 |
| Converted | 16/35 | 17/38 |
| % Converted | 46% | 45% |
| Conceded | 16 | 30 |
| Saved | 12 | 23 |
| % Saved | 75% | 77% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 7 |
Baez broke his opponents 16 times with a 46% conversion rate. Sebastian dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. The Argentine broke his opponents 17 times with a 45% conversion rate. Francisco conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded.
| Baez | ||||||
| R1 Fognini |
R2 Davidovich Fokina |
1/4 Thiem |
1/2 Rublev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 6-3 | 6-2 6-75 6-4 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 17 | 31 | 18 | 85 | |
| pts | 65-52 | 65-46 | 120-100 | 65-47 | 315-245 | |
| Total points | 117 | 111 | 220 | 112 | 560 | |
| Winners | 23 | 31 | 56 | 29 | 139 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 48% | 47% | 45% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 33/49 | 41/57 | 72/98 | 42/53 | 188/257 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 72% | 73% | 79% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 23/33 | 31/41 | 56/72 | 29/42 | 139/188 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 76% | 78% | 69% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 10/16 | 13/26 | 7/11 | 39/69 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 63% | 50% | 64% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 3/7 | 4/13 | 4/8 | 16/35 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 43% | 31% | 50% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 16 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 2/2 | 5/6 | 2/3 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 100% | 83% | 67% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Cerundolo | ||||||
| R1 Sousa |
R2 Ruud |
1/4 Karatsev |
1/2 Carreno-Busta |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 3-6 7-5 | 7-5 6-1 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 31 | 19 | 17 | 86 | |
| pts | 78-65 | 99-98 | 69-56 | 59-44 | 305-263 | |
| Total points | 143 | 197 | 125 | 103 | 568 | |
| Winners | 29 | 37 | 32 | 24 | 122 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 37% | 46% | 41% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 41/62 | 57/104 | 43/70 | 36/53 | 177/289 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 55% | 61% | 68% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 29/41 | 37/57 | 32/43 | 24/36 | 122/177 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 65% | 74% | 67% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/21 | 31/47 | 8/27 | 12/17 | 60/112 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 66% | 30% | 71% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 3/9 | 5/8 | 4/8 | 17/38 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 33% | 63% | 50% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 30 | |
| Saved | 7/9 | 9/11 | 5/7 | 2/3 | 23 | |
| Saved % | 78% | 82% | 71% | 67% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian BaezBaez (1-2) – H2H and prediction
